@JanetPluchinsky
Is anyone watching the Russian statement right now? Are they gearing up to declare war on the US or am I misunderstanding?
Stating very clearly that US and allies are building bio weapons along the Russian border.
Might be over stating.
To survive domestically they have to drive the narrative - they can't say 'the special operation against Ukraine has gone horribly wrong' but they also can't hide a prolonged war either.
Eventually they have to get the narrative to change from 'special operation' to 'war' without it appearing like Ukraine - a much smaller country which they are pushing as ethnically inferior - can be causing their mighty Russia army such a head ache. Cos pride / loss of face etc.
They also have to manage the domestic situation economically and make it into a 'home front', in which they can gear up their entire country to get behind as quickly as possible. For their own survival on a number of levels - including power, military, but also more basic stuff like perhaps needing to ration.
BUT my suspicion is they certainly don't want to engage the West head on either - at least not at this point.
Think about it in terms of how the UK changed the production of our factories and repurposed things etc etc in WWII. And how we shifted to better self sufficiency and food production by the land army. Eventually that stood us in good stead for later battles in 1944 onwards. But we weren't in that position in 1939.
So I wouldn't necessarily take it as gearing up to declare war on the US any time soon. But I also wouldn't take it as them not gearing up for a big war either.
I think the US and Europe need to have a long hard think about this - how quickly could we do the same type of adaptations that Russia might be getting on with now, if this is something thats going to run for years and years?
I see this statement as perhaps one for domestic consumption rather than something more.
Putin's words about sanctions were:
'Sanctions are akin to a declaration of war, but thank God it hasn't come to that yet'.
Think about it. Russia wants to stay in control of the narrative and if it takes further action against the west, it will want to do so at a moment of its choosing and when its ready.
Its a warning alright. But I'm not expecting things to happen any time soon.
And with this in mind, see my point above about there being a sudden desire for security forces to 'round up' any Russians that they've had eyes on for some time...
This isn't going away any time soon. I see this is being one of the first signs about an admission of it being a long haul exercise and starting to lay the ground work for that.
In other words: they aren't going to make any peace with Ukraine. They are going to do their best to radicalise their population and perhaps build for a wider war in a few years time. I have a certain feeling that its trying to move it away from being Putin's war to being one of Russian national survival (in a similar fashion that we see working under Zelensky in Ukraine).
Its worrying. But like I say, not in the way imagined by most of the public in the West.
We are switching to a long term thing. Russia aren't going to back down and they are accepting they also are unlikely to be able to control Ukraine even if they take it.