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Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10

996 replies

cakeorwine · 07/03/2022 19:53

That filled up quick

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497950-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-9

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17
Natsku · 08/03/2022 09:22

You know how supermarkets are stopping selling Russian products? Well Lidl has gone a bit too far, its stopping selling anything Russian related, even if its not from Russia and so doesn't affect Russian economy. Not selling products that have a bit of Russian text on for instance is not going to help anything.

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 09:25

@Jisforjelly

Do we think that Poland offering fighter jets will kick off ww3? As if Poland is attacked then NATO as a whole will need to get involved.

Sorry if I’m selfish, but I really hope it doesn’t come to that Sad

No.

Putin has his hands full.

More likely to see a forced accident at a nuclear plant imho, if its going that way.

That way it can be blamed on west.

I definitely don't subscribe to Putin being mad. He is clever, but he can only be as clever as the intelligence he gets.

There is a risk of miscalculation over nukes, but i also think those actually in charge of nukes are more cautious (and are in touch with the Americans - don't know about the French actually).

Putin is this morning threatening to turn off Nordstream 1. Johnson has, rightly, said it cannot be just switched off overnight.

Putin is looking for absolutely anything he can get leverage with or create fear with. Nukes remain weapon of last resort even for him, and are exceptionally hit risk, which even he understands. Do you think he wants to give up his power to live out the rest of his days in a bunker? Cos I don't.

It only becomes a tangible threat if Putin's position / life becomes very at risk and he feels there is no other way out. I don't see him as the bullet in the head kind of guy either. I don't think that will happen (and even if it does, you are likely to be seeing the army turn on him as part of that).

The Nordstream threats are also difficult for Putin as its one of the few guaranteed sources of income he now has. Its more likely to score political points in Europe than a crisis as such.

Theres talk today of reopening the British gas fields. A few were coming to the end of life and decommissioning was about to happen. I suspect we will see something of a reversal on this. Johnson is supposed to be releasing a new strategy on energy in the wake of the crisis. Ironically he had wanted to go for net zero which was facing massive internal Tory Party opposition and was propably about to be ditched completely. But the crisis is forcing a complete rethink. The UK has stalled on building more nuclear power in recent years (in part over fears of chinese investment which was quite right). I think thats going to shoot up the agenda and priorities. If we can manage to address some of these energy issues, I do think that puts us in a much stronger position as a country. Its ironic its taken such a crisis though. I'm expecting a fair amount on this to be talked about rapidly.

It is definitely part of a wider strategic plan with Ukraine as if we don't get on top of this rapidly, an energy crunch will affect public support over the conflict. Now is the high point, but as things drag on thats really going to get tested further down the line (Putin fully aware of this, hence threats today).

The UK seems to be taking this seriously, but talk and action are different things...

dreamingbohemian · 08/03/2022 09:26

The latest from Lawrence Freedman on the war:

samf.substack.com/p/space-and-time?s=r

He continues to see Russia doing very poorly.

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 09:27

@Natsku

You know how supermarkets are stopping selling Russian products? Well Lidl has gone a bit too far, its stopping selling anything Russian related, even if its not from Russia and so doesn't affect Russian economy. Not selling products that have a bit of Russian text on for instance is not going to help anything.
Maybe not. But its also probably not going to sell well either. A simple rebrand might be cheaper in the long run for them.
dreamingbohemian · 08/03/2022 09:28

The US seems to be making moves to repair relations with both Venezuela and Iran so as to bring their oil back to market, and further isolate Russia. It's really crazy how this war is realigning world politics.

borntobequiet · 08/03/2022 09:30

Supplying armaments (either paid for or as loans or gifts) to countries you support is not the same as directly attacking their enemies, either logically or legally, else you could say more or less the whole world was permanently at war. Though some people do say it, I’m sure.

CaveMum · 08/03/2022 09:32

From BBC:

A top commander in the Russian army has been killed during fighting near Kharkiv, according to Ukraine's ministry of defence intelligence service.

The BBC cannot independently verify the claim; Russian officials have not commented.

According to a statement from Ukraine’s defence ministry, Vitaly Gerasimov was a major general, chief of staff and first deputy commander of the 41st Army of the Central Military District of Russia.

A number of senior Russian army officers were also killed and wounded, it says.

Ukrainian intelligence says Gerasimov took part in the second Chechen war and the Russian military operation in Syria. He received a medal "for the return of Crimea".

Ukrainian officials tweeted out a photo of someone they said was Gerasimov, with the word "Liquidated" in red letters across the bottom.

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 09:34

Sorry, I am being thick here, but how does this stop Putin being able to claim NATO involvement by the back door? Poland is supplying planes and are part of NATO?

Putin already has an over stretch issue.

How does openly attacking Poland help him, when that would guarantee NATO intervention?

It would make his existing problems worse, not better.

Thats the gamble and I think its probably a fair one. He is already flying in planes and helicopters from Belarus himself by all accounts. (think we will hear more about this for obvious reasons).

Just as the West has hands tied on some things, so does Putin.

Any action from Russia is more likely to be covert / plausibly deniable.

I note google's observations over cyber atacks and phishing targetting Poland...

PestorPeston · 08/03/2022 09:34

Update 14 from IAEA, Staff at Chernobyl have now been on duty for 12 days. They must be knackered.
[[https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-14-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine]]

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 09:35

@dreamingbohemian

The US seems to be making moves to repair relations with both Venezuela and Iran so as to bring their oil back to market, and further isolate Russia. It's really crazy how this war is realigning world politics.
Tbf Iran was already on the cards anyway. And Russia needs Iran too.

Hence Israel panicking a bit I think.

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 09:38

I think there may be some suggestion that Belarus is doing no more than Poland...

Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10
GallopingHighRoad · 08/03/2022 09:39

A no-fly zone is essential to stop Ukraine falling. Without it Ukraine will not be able to defend itself or protect the vast array of equipment recently delivered from being identified then targeted for destruction or capture.

DuncinToffee · 08/03/2022 09:43

Who said that Galloping?

Tuba437 · 08/03/2022 09:44

I thought the idea of sending planes to Ukraine from Poland had been poo pooed by Poland anyway?

DGRossetti · 08/03/2022 09:46

@dreamingbohemian

The US seems to be making moves to repair relations with both Venezuela and Iran so as to bring their oil back to market, and further isolate Russia. It's really crazy how this war is realigning world politics.
Indeed,

And while it would be nice to think "armies learn from history" what really happens is you end up preparing to fight the last war again - if you aren't careful. Which was exactly what Britain and France did in WW2 1939-1940. And that didn't turn out too well.

We can only hope this time it's the Russians who are fighting like it's 1999.

DuncinToffee · 08/03/2022 09:46

Fillipo Grandi (UN High Commissioner for Refugees)

Today the outflow of refugees from Ukraine reaches two million people.

Two million.

borntobequiet · 08/03/2022 09:46

@GallopingHighRoad

A no-fly zone is essential to stop Ukraine falling. Without it Ukraine will not be able to defend itself or protect the vast array of equipment recently delivered from being identified then targeted for destruction or capture.
By whom or what? The Russian Air Force is apparently not in much of a better state than its army.
Thewiseoneincognito · 08/03/2022 09:48

@RedToothBrush what do you think of Russia disconnecting from the global internet this coming Friday?

vera99 · 08/03/2022 09:49

@dovesofpeace -I'm afraid you don't get to be a mod and I think you'll find many of the posters add quite a lot of ingredients to the pot and some are going to be around 'how we got here' and 'the lies and perfidy of the present government I'm afraid. This is Mumsnet, not some Boeris cheerleader site. But I have housework to do and am 11 pages behind on part 10 so I'm sure this issue has been settled and we're all chummy again. I'm not sensing there is a huge appetite on MN for this subject so a subforum like covid would be a struggle. But if there was such demand then we could have separate threads rather than just piling in on a single one. I'm a great James O'Brien fan on LBC he's on in 15 minutes and he does a great job of handling this issue sensitively, in the round and with righteous anger where needed.

workisnotawolf · 08/03/2022 09:49

“The US seems to be making moves to repair relations with both Venezuela and Iran so as to bring their oil back to market, and further isolate Russia. It's really crazy how this war is realigning world politics.”

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60653856 - food poverty for the poorest looming.
Has anyone got any interesting articles on the effects on Africa and China’s further influence if those countries become even poorer due to food poverty?

qz.com/africa/2090221/africans-favorable-view-of-china-comes-with-one-small-caveat/

GallopingHighRoad · 08/03/2022 09:50

@DuncinToffee

Who said that Galloping?
Zelensky is not a bad place to start.
DGRossetti · 08/03/2022 09:50

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@RedToothBrush what do you think of Russia disconnecting from the global internet this coming Friday?[/quote]
Seems a class move, to remove 90% of the information you need to fight a war.

DGRossetti · 08/03/2022 09:51

food poverty for the poorest looming.

Not really sure that's news though.

Ijsbear · 08/03/2022 09:52

@RedToothBrush

Re Afghanistan. The British /Americans made the mistake of not thinking about Afghan military experience and how culturally they have had to be resourceful and inventive due to where they live and their history...
I don't think that was all of it? (again, Im very far from militarily trained).

From what I've heard, the approach of the troops to the population was pivotal in how badly Afghanistan went. Some countries train their soldiers from grunt upwards how to speak to the population without alienating them, how to establish a rapport and how to actually genuinely keep peace rather than provoking resentment and then eventually attacks.

Apparently Dutch soldiers used to bicycle through Helmand province in the early years of the war!

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