[quote NCdBcOuting]**@RedToothBrush really interesting analysis, thank you for taking the time to set it out.
Do you think Putin is wholly conviction driven, then, as the “posted in error” article sets out? It crossed my mind that the “error” might have been some sort of tactic to gain negotiating advantage, like “oh look he really is nuts let’s placate”. But seeing your explanation makes me think it’s more straightforward - he is a zealot.
@ILoveAllRainbowsx also interesting about the gold, thank you.[/quote]
Its to justify anything that Russia has done as somehow righteous.
As a general note, everything you here said by Russian officials, British officials, Ukrainians officials etc you should think about how it will sound to various different audiences.
Putin and Russian officials might sound crazy to our ears, but it makes perfect sense to a Russian audience. Its hard to get your head around at first (I had a very strange experience travelling in Serbia and came across this type of upside down thinking) but it does make sense when you understand where it comes from and why people are doing it.
Putin isn't crazy, but it actually helps his international positioning on this, if the West believe he is because that increases The Fear. He is talking the language that many Russians understand and is tapping into their identity, fears and prejudices. (In just the same way we've seen used in British political campaigning)
Also I don't think Putin says things he is not prepared to do. It doesn't mean he will. It is not a bluff. Its a statement of possible intention. Dictators don't tend to bluff. He wants people to back down, before he is 'forced' to do something because thats how he psychologically defends his actions. So we should take seriously and tread carefully, but it doesn't mean he wants to see these actions though.