The invasion has begun

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Russia has begun it's invasion of Ukraine. Who knows where this will end.

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-moscow-kyiv-626a8c5ec22217bacb24ece60fac4fe1

Thats what I thought. We already do donate to the Red Cross, so hopefully its just social media crap and there is nothing of substance to it.

[quote jacketsatdawn]@dreamingbohemian how can you speculate based on past events? What past events? Crimea - sanctions were imposed then ignored, Russia continued to raise money in the west. Both Russia and China have said they expect and are not affected by sanctions. What other past events are giving you insight here?

For negotiation you need to know the other side inside out, and aim at a realistic solution. All this bonkers speculation is doing the opposite. Anyway, at the very least could you and everyone else give your sources when you give info as fact, so that people can check it and decide for themselves how credible it is.

Ukraine is not going to agree to negotiations if the precondition is to unilaterally disarm first. That would be suicide what they have said in fact is that they are lost unless NATO joins in. Which is not going to happen.[/quote]
Give me one example of the UN Security Council approving a peacekeeping intervention against the wishes of a P-5 member state.

Or an example of a country resisting invasion but then deciding to unilaterally disarm before the outcome of the conflict is known.

If there is no precedent for either of these things, then it's not really a problem to speculate that they are unlikely in this case.

In my personal non qualified opinion, I am hoping for a negotiated temporary ceasefire on both sides, pending legally binding agreement by Ukraine, Russia and NATO that Ukraine will not join NATO for x years provided y conditions are met.
In my personal opinion, Putin will want to come out of this looking like he got what he wanted.
China and India are neutral in this, in my personal opinion, I am surprised anyone would think otherwise.

[quote nonono1]I'm disappointed in the EU countries that have vetoed kicking Russia out of SWIFT.

www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-swift-rejection-eu-leaders-sanctions-russia/[/quote]
Its easy to for the UK etc to ask other countries to basically stop receiving gas when it won't effect them at all.

UK banks are also against the idea as it means Russian companies will default on debt repayments to them.

Germany etc is asking for the UK to crack down on dirty Russian money laundered through London and we wont because it will harm our property market.

All of it is very weak and short sighted, we aren't really pulling in one direction here, its a great pity the UK isn't in at the heart of EU decision making.

bohemian
Give me one example of the UN Security Council approving a peacekeeping intervention against the wishes of a P-5 member state

Or an example of a country resisting invasion but then deciding to unilaterally disarm before the outcome of the conflict is known

If there is no precedent for either of these things, then it's not really a problem to speculate that they are unlikely in this case

I don't agree with your third paragraph, and I don't agree that you can extrapoloate the 3rd para from your first 2 paras - because what has happened is unprecedented and because as I have said, Ukraine have said they are lost with NATO joining in which won't happen. Based on the facts (because the past doesn't give guidance) my speculation would be that there would be UN led peacekeeping, and there is no reason to believe that things won't progress with Ukraine on the basis of negotiation over neutrality. I bloody hope that will happen anyway.

In my personal opinion, Putin will want to come out of this looking like he got what he wanted.

I agree, the problem is that in his war declaration Putin said he wanted the demilitarisation and de-Nazification of Ukraine, i.e. regime change + disarmament. So I don't think a promise not to join NATO will satisfy him now. We'll see though.

Ok well @jacketsatdawn if you don't believe anything can be learned from history and you don't believe how the UN Security Council works, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

@workisnotawolf who has said otherwise re China and India? Both China and India are maintaining neutrality at this stage, afaik, which is immensely helpful, and according to WION India is in discuission with US in a mediator role. Both are encouraging de escalation and negotiation I believe

If you are referring to my post about sanctions, though, there is a close relationship between China and Russia, they have just signed the 117bn energy contract, and both have previously made known their views about sanctions, and there is some precedent of them working together re Crimea sanctions I think.

Alexandra you're correct.

The EU is the epitome of "pulling in one direction".

@dreamingbohemian

Ok well *@jacketsatdawn* if you don't believe anything can be learned from history and you don't believe how the UN Security Council works, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

I didn't say that, you can definitely learn from history, and what we have seen since ww2 is more negotiation and more diplomacy, surely?

The reference to ww2 is in relation to timescale, since then - in terms of a comparable situation to Russia's attack, is there one?

I therefore differ from you in terms of my interpretation of the past and how i'd extrapolate from it.

You have also posted a lot about what Putin will and won't do and I just cannot see any precedent for what you are sayingor any source which could give you those opinions. It isn't reflected in what he says, but you are sayhing he can'[t be trusted. A lot of speculattion here seems to be to with how Russia reacted during the cold war which I think is irrelevant. Alot is to do with how Biden represents Putin and I am not convinced that is very reliable either. I am not attacking you, or intending to. As you know as an academic, there is a difference between speculation and personal opinion and informed opinion, is my point.

bohemian Sorry, just to add and you don't believe how the UN Security Council works - you have said UN will not intervene against a p-5 member state - but when has a comparable situation arisen? That is what i mean by looking at facts not history for this particular crisis. I am not sure how UN cannot intervene. Ukraine has called upon them to. Also, there is no evidence Russia will not approve.

Possibly I am just a lot more hopeful about diplomacy than you are!

hopeful about diplomacy to do what?? Ukraine has had it now as an independent sovereign state with European leanings. No amount of diplomacy is going to bring those who have died so far back to life.

@jacketsatdawn

bohemian Sorry, just to add and you don't believe how the UN Security Council works - you have said UN will not intervene against a p-5 member state - but when has a comparable situation arisen? That is what i mean by looking at facts not history for this particular crisis. I am not sure how UN cannot intervene. Ukraine has called upon them to. Also, there is no evidence Russia will not approve.

Possibly I am just a lot more hopeful about diplomacy than you are!

The US invasion of Iraq in Gulf War 2 maybe? I don't know, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in GW1 was more akin to what Putin is up to now. Quite outside my knowledge base (though I remember both very well from contemporary news. I'm approaching fifty so watched the Falklands with avid interest, thewall coming down and glasnost, Tiananen, Balkans implosion and all that too) but following with interest.

@Tigersonvaseline

Alexandra you're correct.

The EU is the epitome of "pulling in one direction".

Why would you expect 27 countries to easily agree on one policy? especially one that will cripple every aspect of their economies and peoples i.e the ability to stay warm.

Very easy for countries that don't rely on Russian gas to say oh you do this or that, whilst NOT cracking down on Russian laundered money.

I suspect this is just grandstanding, Russia is too big an exporter of commodities, BJ knows this but looks tough by calling for something he knows wont happen.

@Tigersonvaseline

Alexandra you're correct.

The EU is the epitome of "pulling in one direction".

Many posts re harsher sanctions but not if EU don’t

Just whatever we do usually

@Gingerwarthog - Oh God, I just googled the Snake Island, Tik Tok thing, absolutely heartbreaking 😢 Those poor brave guards.

[quote Inastatus]@Gingerwarthog - Oh God, I just googled the Snake Island, Tik Tok thing, absolutely heartbreaking 😢 Those poor brave guards.[/quote]
I know. It's haunted my all day. Probably because you can just imagine young men you know saying and doing the same thing.

[quote Inastatus]@Gingerwarthog - Oh God, I just googled the Snake Island, Tik Tok thing, absolutely heartbreaking 😢 Those poor brave guards.[/quote]
The captain that fired on the island may well be guilty of war crimes. War crimes include willful killing and extensive destruction of property “not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.”

I would like to see the ICT establish a case for that here.

The guards on Snake Island were reportedly male and female by the way.

@GallopingHighRoad

The guards on Snake Island were reportedly male and female by the way.

Yes - quite right. Apologies - you can imagine young men and women you know doing the same.

This thread has been excellent. Thank you all. It is about full so thread two is here:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4491025-The-Invasion-Continues

Thank you OP. It has been so useful to have a place to comment, share and offload.

Thank you too. Ive liked how it has stayed pretty much on topic, had no bad feeling and kept discussion from everyone in one main place so nobody's thoughts get missed.

I've also learnt, been corrected and I'm hoping thread two will prove me downright wrong because I so want to see Ukraine prevail, quickly and with as little bloodshed as possible on there side. Such astonishing, united courage being shown countrywide.

@GallopingHighRoad - yes, you can clearly hear a female voice in the clip 🙁