The invasion has begun

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Russia has begun it's invasion of Ukraine. Who knows where this will end.

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-moscow-kyiv-626a8c5ec22217bacb24ece60fac4fe1

Russia is not winning, not at the moment.
Please stop calling the capital of Ukraine - Kiev - it is a Russian spelling of the name and will be offensive to many. Kyiv is the Ukraine's spelling for their own capital tiger I am sure you didn't mean to/or know the difference.

China encouraging talks is a neutral stance and perhaps not the cheerleading that would have been hoped for by Moscow. Although as you say quite what talks would even look like - there is no point in Ukraine giving up at this point - and perhaps no point in Russia wishing to 'talk' when are sustaining heavy losses.

Side not dude..

Ukrainian sources say that radiation levels in Chernobyl are increasing.
Denied by Russians.

Well, the only people stationed at Chernobyl are Russian soldiers....Russia really knows how to look afters its army, never ceases to amaze me how caring they are

Ukrainians now saying they need more than moral support from the West.
Civilians in Kyiv getting ready to make Molotov cocktails.
Watching the news at 1 on my lunch break and feel absolutely powerless.

@Keepyourheadscrewedon

Well, the only people stationed at Chernobyl are Russian soldiers....Russia really knows how to look afters its army, never ceases to amaze me how caring they are

The reality is the radiation levels have increased due to shells disturbing soil around the complex, so say Swedish scientists.

Possible talks in Belarus on neutrality between Russia and Ukraine... some very hefty caveats though.

Yes they've distributed 18,000 weapons to ordinary people in Kyiv and the local TV is giving instructions on how to make Molotov cocktails.

The former president (Poroshenko) is on the frontline defence with anti-tank weapons unit.

MPs have been given weapons to defend themselves and Zelensky says he is staying.

Kyiv is going to give it everything they've got. I don't think it will be a walk in the park for Russia.

It is touching to see that the fire service in Kyiv are still working and trying to help people, that Ukraine still seems so together even in the face of the vicious onslaught from the Russians.

The one thing that Russia must dread is the outcome of a house to house war, they stand no chance at all because now everyone left in the capital is very well armed.

@dreamingbohemian

No it's not gone to plan quite yet

They lost control of the key airport outside Kyiv that was meant to allow the insertion of thousands of forces to take the capital. They are having to do a land offensive which is giving Kyiv time to bolster defences and will involve much more difficult urban warfare.

They have not taken other cities as quickly as they thought either.

They have lost lots of soldiers and equipment. Morale is reportedly low.

I'm not saying they will fail but it has not been the kind of impressive juggernaut that many expected. Not really 'shock and awe' style.

I think it is more that there is frantic diplomacy going on in the background.

Ukraine are desperate - Zelensky has made despearate pleas on youtube, he realises that NATO isn't going in, and he has said that he wants to discuss neutrality which is a major change in direction for them. India's PM has met with Russia at Russia's request and is now in discussions with US. Macron is talking to Putin. China and others calling for negotiations. The UN has not yet made decisions about peacekeeping missions so far as I can work out.

I think that what everyone here needs to bear in mind is that the posters who sound knowledgable about Putin - "Putin will do this" "Putin will do that" - are not - it is pure speculation - leading experts being interviewed here are saying that they don't know what is going on and not making nearly so many authoritative statements as you are getting here!

Russia has almost no official media platform in the west - they have Russia Today which is tiny and considered a "foreign agent" I believe. Moscow Today mentioned above is an expat paper in English.

sorry, I meant leading experts being interviewed on the news, not here

I can't contemplate waking up on one random morning, thinking about the bills and going to the office and then next minute having your kid and husband bring asked to defend your country while you and your daughter get lessons on making Molotov cocktails.

@004aga

Has anyone heard anything about an orphanage being abandonned by the adults, in the Ukraine leaving the children behind. Ive tried to Google but nothing is coming up, it was on a Facebook group that I follow and am trying to see if its true or not. And if it is what can be done to help them.

I wouldn’t assume anything credible from Facebook. Donate to the Red Cross. If something like this has happened, it’s charities like the Red Cross who will be trying to pick up the pieces.

@dreamingbohemian

Yes they've distributed 18,000 weapons to ordinary people in Kyiv and the local TV is giving instructions on how to make Molotov cocktails.

The former president (Poroshenko) is on the frontline defence with anti-tank weapons unit.

MPs have been given weapons to defend themselves and Zelensky says he is staying.

Kyiv is going to give it everything they've got. I don't think it will be a walk in the park for Russia.

Do you think you could start adding sources for all your statements?

Of course everyone is speculating. This is war, there is no certainty in war.

But it is possible to say certain things are unlikely given past events.

The UN is not going to intervene in a conflict started by a P-5 state. There is no point even discussing it now.

Ukraine is not going to agree to negotiations if the precondition is to unilaterally disarm first. That would be suicide.

If I turn out to be wrong, I will hold my hands up and say so.

No surprise at all but people in the middle east been living with death and unjust "wars" for decades. And everyone in the West ignores it.

This is a quote from a Ukrainian in Kyiv from BBC news. Read it and it made me think of the comments up thread

Olga says her mum had been worrying about neighbours, friends and also the family's cat, as the pet was left in the building overnight.

"It's really strange to speak about the cat when there's a war and people are dying, but if you imagine that people were leaving their homes and thinking they would go for just a couple of hours... and then come back."

Oh fuck. A squad of Chechen special forces 'hunters' has been unleashed in Ukraine to detain or kill a set of specific Ukrainian officials. They're animals.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10551327/Chechen-special-forces-hunters-unleashed-Ukraine-detain-kill-Kyiv-officials.html

Clive Myrie was talking to the head of BBC Ukraine news , I think that is who she was, and was quite dismissive in tone about the public being told to use Molotov cocktails. She responded what else can we do.

@minsmum

Clive Myrie was talking to the head of BBC Ukraine news , I think that is who she was, and was quite dismissive in tone about the public being told to use Molotov cocktails. She responded what else can we do.

I saw that. She looked absolutely desperate.

@jacketsatdawn this is MN not a peer-reviewed journal. If you find any mistakes or misinformation in what I say, you are welcome to say so.

I'm an academic in conflict studies drawing on a very wide range of respected analysts, I'm not getting my info from Facebook or the Sun or Russia Today.

@dreamingbohemian how can you speculate based on past events? What past events? Crimea - sanctions were imposed then ignored, Russia continued to raise money in the west. Both Russia and China have said they expect and are not affected by sanctions. What other past events are giving you insight here?

For negotiation you need to know the other side inside out, and aim at a realistic solution. All this bonkers speculation is doing the opposite. Anyway, at the very least could you and everyone else give your sources when you give info as fact, so that people can check it and decide for themselves how credible it is.

Ukraine is not going to agree to negotiations if the precondition is to unilaterally disarm first. That would be suicide what they have said in fact is that they are lost unless NATO joins in. Which is not going to happen.

I'm disappointed in the EU countries that have vetoed kicking Russia out of SWIFT.

www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-swift-rejection-eu-leaders-sanctions-russia/

[quote dreamingbohemian]@jacketsatdawn this is MN not a peer-reviewed journal. If you find any mistakes or misinformation in what I say, you are welcome to say so.

I'm an academic in conflict studies drawing on a very wide range of respected analysts, I'm not getting my info from Facebook or the Sun or Russia Today.[/quote]
In which case you will be used to giving sources and it won't be difficult to do so here.

@Sunflowersinthewind

This is a quote from a Ukrainian in Kyiv from BBC news. Read it and it made me think of the comments up thread

Olga says her mum had been worrying about neighbours, friends and also the family's cat, as the pet was left in the building overnight.

"It's really strange to speak about the cat when there's a war and people are dying, but if you imagine that people were leaving their homes and thinking they would go for just a couple of hours... and then come back."

You would though wouldn't you? You'd still worry about the cat and your furniture etc. You couldn't just switch to a war mentality they quickly. They seem so bloody brave and defiant though - the lady who walked straight up to the Russian soldiers with her sunflower seeds and the soldiers at Snake Island (BBC News and the latter is viral on Tik Tok).