If Ukraine invasion happens - what impacts will we see here?

[saltedBubbly]

So the Russian invasion of Ukraine is looking increasingly likely and imminent.

If it happens, UK and US will have to proceed with sanctions. Russia may well retaliate with cyber attacks and pipeline/ communications cable disruptions.

My friend's DH is ex military. He warned me today to make sure my car fuel and heating oil are topped up. He also recommended making sure I had cash as a cyber attack on the banks/internet is possible.

What other impacts do people think we may face? And what should we do to prep for them?

Yes, why aren't we using them. Do you think government will rethink this?

Putting to one side my previous posts that Putin really doesn't want to invade Ukraine and let's assume for one moment that he does then I see the likely impacts as:
Higher natural gas and oil prices
Russian troops getting bogged down in a messy conflict (literally as the frozen ground soon turns to mud which isn't great for tanks)
Massive unpopularity for Putin in Russia and can VIP discord at the sight of body bags for what is seen as an unnecessary conflict. Could cost Putin his job.
The West starts to get its shit together for the first time since the end of the Cold War with a more united and collective approach in dealing with aggression by Russia (and China). In particular Germany finally starts taking defence seriously.
China is pissed off because Putin has united the Western powers that would then make any action they are thinking about against Taiwan much much more difficult.
Return in part to a Cold War mentality.

But we still believe that Putin has backed himself into a corner and the West to avoid a war needs to find an agreement that helps him save face rather than try to humiliate him.

Putin is a very clever operator (probably the smartest in decades) and he is most certainly not mad but if he is forced to decide between capitulation or escalation I have no doubt he will escalate.

Hi @BerylStrip

By way of excuse I did slip a “majorly” into my reply to the other poster as a bit of backside covering..

With regard to the satellite shoot down you mention, yes the Russians (and the US plus others) have destroyed satellites in Low Earth Orbit, but nobody as as yet demonstrated the same capability when it comes to Geostationary orbits which as you will be aware is where a lot (but I am know not all) of the comms satellites reside.

For the sake of context I don’t anybody is seriously suggesting things would get that far?

[quote ShouldersBackChestOutChinUp]@WorstXmasEver ooooooh no. Forrin speaking parents at the school gates. Disaster!

How very dare they. [/quote]
Not only are they foreign, But they use a different алфавіту

@ArcheryAnnie

On the Ukraine question, I can see one very annoying effect will be lots of Boris attempting to be "statesmanlike" on the telly to deflect from the lying, cheating, law breaking, incompetent clown that he really is.

This 100%, this is taking the spotlight away from his shenanigans... With a war imminent the last thing a country needs is a change in leadership & Boris knows this....tosser...

@Idroppedthescrewinthetuna

Oh no! More people who run here for safety! Stealing our jobs and taking our benefits!!! those foreign speaking people! I hate having a foreign Dr, he/she stole the job I am not qualified to do! Or the cleaner who cleans my office, the job I don't want to do myself. (I have been a cleaner in the past by the way...this is not meant to be insulting) Or the long queue at the job centre is going to get longer cos of all those foreigners looking for a job and getting in the way of those (not all) who have never had a job in their life...with no intentions to. If my children were in danger I certainly wouldn't run to another country where they will be safe!

Some people really anger me!

I came on this thread because I genuinely do not know the effects of what could happen in this country. But apparently some are just worried about the 'dumping ground' we are! Tbh...I pride myself that I live in such a Country people would come to. I can put my kids to bed and know they are scared of the monsters in the wardrobe and not the potential of bomber planes in the air!!

Great post. That highly qualified Consultant from India is not stopped locally born people getting a job in KFC. And as for less qualified jobs - we have a labour shortage so as long as people want to work why the hell wouldn’t we want them here? Refugees are a whole different matter and I hope we help and welcome them

I'm dreading it.
Seems like a lot of political ''Dick swinging''

Russia is bound to invade.

They did it to Afghanistan all those years ago, and changed that Country completely for the worse.

Goodness knows what will happen if {When} Putin invades Ukraine.
But it won't be pretty, and it won't be his sons dying in the conflict.

Dh works in the aviation industry. He says this will cause huge problems with flights as airlines won’t fly in Ukrainian airspace from tomorrow and will have to fly longer routes round (with higher fuel costs).

@woodhill

Yes, why aren't we using them. Do you think government will rethink this?

Well, apart from anything else they are a contributor to our carbon footprint.

You can't just set up a gas extraction facility overnight.

Fracking (which is how shale gas is extracted) is very unpopular - deservedly so - and the long term repercussions of extraction in this manner are unknown.

So whilst we do have some gas reserves, they are neither a short term, nor a long term solution.

@TenoringBehind

Dh works in the aviation industry. He says this will cause huge problems with flights as airlines won’t fly in Ukrainian airspace from tomorrow and will have to fly longer routes round (with higher fuel costs).

Yes, it's another kick in the teeth for aviation

@Southerngal5

This 100%, this is taking the spotlight away from his shenanigans... With a war imminent the last thing a country needs is a change in leadership & Boris knows this....tosser...

This is helpful to Johnson, of course, but the UK is not the only country concerned with the situation in and around Ukraine. The US is, many EU countries are. A previous poster said our papers were whipping up 'mass hysteria' (or similar words) to distract from Johnson's woes. I doubt The Guardian, or Independent, are going to take much notice of exhortations from the Tories to do this and they have detailed, and good, analyses of the situation.

Le Monde, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Das Spiegel, La Repubblica, El Pais ALL have prominent, if not the most prominent, articles on their website about Ukraine. This is not confined to The Daily Mail...

@BerylStrip
I think you have to be a special kind of cynic (or racist?) to presume that the only people who would defend a vast and complex nation of 1.4 billion people from baseless slurs, a country which has made unbelievable progress in recent decades, are those paid to do so.

@Hoppinggreen yes, this is my problem! I hate people who just see refugees as a problem! They are not! I couldn't be a DR, consultant or nurse. Honestly, I am far too selfish to give all the hours. The high skill is also a big issue.
If I have a foreign speaking Dr I do not care...just make me or my kids better!

So many people I have heard say 'stealing out jobs' my reply is 'oh well you go clean toilets then, you go be a dr? No? Shut up then'

Foreign speaking parents at school gates, well if they are here because their Country was unsafe, I don't think about the language they speak, I wonder what horrors they must have seen to just leave their lives behind.

If going to school gates and hearing a non English speaking person talk to their child us your biggest problem then shit me you are one lucky person! Go back under the rock you came from.

We need Russia/Putin. They keep China in check, China is much more aggressive, just in different ways, but more dangerous than Russia.

@NETSRIK

Don't feed the troll. He has form.

We really shouldn't. Just gets my back up. Exactly the trolls aim. But there are so many people with these opinions that they need educating!

[quote supermoonrising]@BerylStrip
I think you have to be a special kind of cynic (or racist?) to presume that the only people who would defend a vast and complex nation of 1.4 billion people from baseless slurs, a country which has made unbelievable progress in recent decades, are those paid to do so.[/quote]
Look, love, China is a shitty and appalling regime by any standard.

DFOD

@BerylStrip
China isn’t a “regime”, love, it’s a country. Thanks though for yet another example of the barely veiled yellow peril type racism that’s becoming the accepted norm the past few years.

[quote supermoonrising]@BerylStrip
China isn’t a “regime”, love, it’s a country. Thanks though for yet another example of the barely veiled yellow peril type racism that’s becoming the accepted norm the past few years.[/quote]
Would you like to give us chapter and verse on YOUR view of the Uyghur extermination ? Generally thought to be the worse genocide since the Nazi regime in WW2 ?

Don't resort to 'whataboutism' please. We're talking about the mass murder, torture and forcible sterilisation of people to clarify what I am referring to. Carried out by your beloved China which has (your words) made "unvelievable progress" in recent years.

Thanks for coming back to us on this point.

[quote supermoonrising]@BerylStrip
I think you have to be a special kind of cynic (or racist?) to presume that the only people who would defend a vast and complex nation of 1.4 billion people from baseless slurs, a country which has made unbelievable progress in recent decades, are those paid to do so.[/quote]
What progress have the Uighurs made in those decades?

Re Banks, are any safer than others? Is it a matter of not having access for a while or totally losing the money?

@Caszekey

Re Banks, are any safer than others? Is it a matter of not having access for a while or totally losing the money?

If it's a UK bank, you are protected up to £85,000 per financial group by the UK government.

If you had deposits in, for example:

HSBC: £85,000
First Direct: £85,000
Barclays: £85,000

You'd be protected for £170,000 as HSBC and First Direct are part of the same group.

I think it very unlikely you'd lose money. If the bank was 'cyber hacked' and your funds removed, the bank would be liable. If, somehow, the bank went under, you'd be protected by the UK government as above.

tl;dr - I'd not worry too much about losing my savings. Access to cash might become an issue if things went badly wrong, but I would imagine that if there was a prolonged, and sustained, failure of infrastructure, the UK government would have some form of contingency plan in place.

Now worried about Natwest 😯
We do have a reasonable amount of cash not in a bank because I'm less likely to spend it if its not in a bank 😂

@TenoringBehind

Dh works in the aviation industry. He says this will cause huge problems with flights as airlines won’t fly in Ukrainian airspace from tomorrow and will have to fly longer routes round (with higher fuel costs).

It’ll be a planning problem but not insurmountable…it will only effect certain routes to some places out East.

As a bit of background many airlines have been avoiding large chunks of Ukraine airspace for several years now.

Eastbound Western Europe to the Far East it’s still not that uncommon to see routes heading north of the Kiev area, so yes, option will have gone.

OTOH because of prevailing winds the standard route back between the Far East and Western Europe has tended to be much further south, in parts over northern Turkey and then Romania, so that won’t be effected.

A cyber attack on banks (as well as utilities, nhs etc) is nothing new, people have been preparing contingencies as well as of course trying to defend the country from them for many years. No people won't lose money, at most it'll cause disruption for a short period, there are by far bigger concerns than banks.