If Ukraine invasion happens - what impacts will we see here?

[saltedBubbly]

So the Russian invasion of Ukraine is looking increasingly likely and imminent.

If it happens, UK and US will have to proceed with sanctions. Russia may well retaliate with cyber attacks and pipeline/ communications cable disruptions.

My friend's DH is ex military. He warned me today to make sure my car fuel and heating oil are topped up. He also recommended making sure I had cash as a cyber attack on the banks/internet is possible.

What other impacts do people think we may face? And what should we do to prep for them?

@1dayatatime

The whole Ukrainian situation is ridiculous and unnecessary.

What does Russia want?
Russia is paranoid about being invaded. I know this seems inconceivable to us that the West would ever want to invade Russia. But Russia has been invaded twice plus a Cold War and has very long borders which other countries would like to nibble away at. To counter this Russia has sought to have its border countries to be compliant or in their "sphere of influence" such as Belorussia or Kazakhstan etc. What Russia does not want is Ukraine right on their border being in the Western sphere of influence, joining the EU or even worse NATO.

What does the West want?
Firstly nobody is that interested in Ukraine but can't be seen to be saying so. The prospect of it entering the EU is decades away, but they can't say this as it would push Ukraine towards Russia. Nobody is seriously thinking of allowing them to join NATO because they are already in conflict with Russia and the last thing the western economies need right now or ever is to get dragged into a conflict with a nuclear armed Russia. But again the West can't say this as it would push Ukraine into the arms of Russia.

We now have a situation where Russia does not want Ukraine to join NATO and wants the West to state this. The West doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO but can't really state this.

Russia has massed troops on the border and will find it difficult to remove them without Putin losing face. The massing of troops has also pushed Ukraine closer to the Western sphere.

If Russia did invade then it would be very messy and costly in lives and money. Russia and the West know this. But Russia's pain could be the West's gain.

Lastly we have a stand off with Russia saying give me guarantees or else and the West calling their bluff and saying don't believe you / go ahead.

The real loser of course in all of this is Ukraine.

Just wanted to say that this is the best explanation of the whole mess I have read yet. Thanks.

Thank you @1dayatatime

This article provides a different, and probably correct, viewpoint:

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-russia-diplomacy-ukraine/622075/

@FourChimneys

I think it is important to plan how we would live without the Internet, even for a short time.

If we think the cost of living is going up, we probably haven't even seen the start unfortunately.

As an aside, I always thought my DCs school was much richer for having pupils from many different countries and cultures. They, and us, learned so much.

The non British born kids in my dc's class add to the class in a way that can't be measured. The parents are 100% committed to their education & they are wonderful. Dd's eastern European bfg is a musical genius, her commitment is unreal. Another one is a brilliant chess player. If anything these parents make the British ones appear lazy...

[quote lollipoprainbow]@crosbystillsandmash what a lovely thing to say as a teacher should you really be having favourites?? [/quote]
I treat every child in my care equally, any decent individual would do the same.
I presume you don't work in education?

I'm merely highlighting that 'foreign' children and families are a huge positive in my school and that the ridiculous attitude of one particular poster was shocking.

Dd's BFF not bfg😩🙈

@oakleaffy

I'm dreading it. Seems like a lot of political ''Dick swinging''

Russia is bound to invade.

They did it to Afghanistan all those years ago, and changed that Country completely for the worse.

Goodness knows what will happen if {When} Putin invades Ukraine.
But it won't be pretty, and it won't be his sons dying in the conflict.

They changed the country for the worse? It was a short period in their history when women had right to vote, work, go to school, dress the way they like. Check out in history books who gave money and weapon to talibans who did everything in their power to erase women and rights they got in that period. Propaganda is a powerful tool, and it is easy to see who is the Expert in this field.

Anybody mentioned the 1994 security assurances?

I do get confused about Russian involvement in Afghanistan- the Taliban were aided by the West to fight off the Soviets but then 'we' ended up fighting the Taliban after that, is that right?

@1dayatatime

The whole Ukrainian situation is ridiculous and unnecessary.

What does Russia want?
Russia is paranoid about being invaded. I know this seems inconceivable to us that the West would ever want to invade Russia. But Russia has been invaded twice plus a Cold War and has very long borders which other countries would like to nibble away at. To counter this Russia has sought to have its border countries to be compliant or in their "sphere of influence" such as Belorussia or Kazakhstan etc. What Russia does not want is Ukraine right on their border being in the Western sphere of influence, joining the EU or even worse NATO.

What does the West want?
Firstly nobody is that interested in Ukraine but can't be seen to be saying so. The prospect of it entering the EU is decades away, but they can't say this as it would push Ukraine towards Russia. Nobody is seriously thinking of allowing them to join NATO because they are already in conflict with Russia and the last thing the western economies need right now or ever is to get dragged into a conflict with a nuclear armed Russia. But again the West can't say this as it would push Ukraine into the arms of Russia.

We now have a situation where Russia does not want Ukraine to join NATO and wants the West to state this. The West doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO but can't really state this.

Russia has massed troops on the border and will find it difficult to remove them without Putin losing face. The massing of troops has also pushed Ukraine closer to the Western sphere.

If Russia did invade then it would be very messy and costly in lives and money. Russia and the West know this. But Russia's pain could be the West's gain.

Lastly we have a stand off with Russia saying give me guarantees or else and the West calling their bluff and saying don't believe you / go ahead.

The real loser of course in all of this is Ukraine.

Well explained, thank you.

I believe that Putin is part of a dying breed of Russian elderly that still believes that they are a superpower when , in fact, the USSR has fragmented. I think that Russia is sabre rattling and that it doesn't want to see another former soviet state become a member of NATO, as it would further weaken his perceived status.

He will want to hit where it hurts, eg, gas and possibly wheat.

So energy bills might soar exponentially meaning that manufacturing will be hit hard and so most of what we consume will go up in price... tea manufacture, engineering, meat processing, deliveries , public transport ( in particular trains) and any foodstuffs that rely on energy for its creation , eg, processed food of any kind, eg fake meats and meals that are highly processed as well as sliced meat, chicken nugget, minced meat, breaded foods, battered foods , ready meals as well as bread which relies on energy and wheat prices.

Also furniture manufacture, soft fruit, cereal production, biscuits, cars etc...

Dark days ahead my friends!

Let's hope that some conciliation can be found.

Oh, and nurseries, playgroups , after school clubs, breakfast clubs , gyms and suchlike will pass on energy hikes too.

@Gotmyprincecharming

The Russians have been fighting in Eastern Ukraine day in, day out since 2014..its been going on longer than than the World Wars lasted. Putin is the absolute devil, really thinks he invincible but unfortunately even if he was blown out of it tomorrow, there would be someone else just as bad to take over. DH has been on phone calls with his friends on the frontline and we'd hear gunfire in the background, very scary. Dh is Ukrainian, hasn't lived there in 20 years. He's spent more time living in this country (not UK) than he has lived in Ukraine. All his family are still there, thankfully not in Eastern Ukraine. we haven't been for the last 3 years, his parents haven't seen grandkids since then either. We had hoped to get there this year but that's not looking likely now. And because of visa's etc it's not just a matter of buying a plane ticket and be gone.

This is where my biological father is from. I was finally hoping to go this year after covid :(

@8dpwoah

I do get confused about Russian involvement in Afghanistan- the Taliban were aided by the West to fight off the Soviets but then 'we' ended up fighting the Taliban after that, is that right?

With apologies to the modern history scholars…not quite. Open to correction but think it went something along the lines of:

1. The mujahideen, a coalition of groups, fought the Soviets/incumbent Afghan government - the mujahideen were aided by the west.

1. Soviets got kicked out and incumbent government then fell.

1. The various factions that comprised the mujahideen then fell out amongst themselves and there then followed a civil war.

1. The Taliban and allied groups won.

They changed the country for the worse? It was a short period in their history when women had right to vote, work, go to school, dress the way they like. Check out in history books who gave money and weapon to talibans who did everything in their power to erase women and rights they got in that period

Good point. I'm surprised more people don't know who funded the taliban. It's not exactly a secret.

My Ukrainian friend will be very worried about her family who live in Odessa.
Her dad visited her once & is an old sailor! He once got drunk and rowed through Durdle Door in Dorset in just his boxers and a life vest!!
Sadly if the invasion happens she may not see him again as he's getting on a bit now.

@1dayatatime
Well explained, but 90% of the British public will continue to see Russia as some kind of evil for the sake of evil Bond villain because that’s what the media and western powers want to portray.

The Taliban were formed by the foreign Mujahadeen funded by the US to fight against Russia. The Mujahadeen imported Saudi Wahabi Islam.

I have a photo somewhere of the Afghan king & queen in the 20s - they wore 20s style Western clothes.
And there's photos of Afghan women in the 60s wearing minis.

[quote supermoonrising]@1dayatatime
Well explained, but 90% of the British public will continue to see Russia as some kind of evil for the sake of evil Bond villain because that’s what the media and western powers want to portray.[/quote]
I see you didn't come back to TWO people asking you what you thought about your precious China and their genocide of the Uyghurs.

As to Russia - yes, I think evil is a good term to use. You just have to look at their treatment of LBTQ people for a start.

Please, do, let us know your thoughts on the Uyghurs. We're fascinated to hear how you square that with your portrayal of the wonderful things that China has achieved.

@Latara

The Taliban were formed by the foreign Mujahadeen funded by the US to fight against Russia. The Mujahadeen imported Saudi Wahabi Islam.

I have a photo somewhere of the Afghan king & queen in the 20s - they wore 20s style Western clothes.
And there's photos of Afghan women in the 60s wearing minis.

Thee were certainly different voices in Afghanistan. Ahmad Shah Massoud and the Northern Alliance successfully fought the Soviets and then the Taliban, their vision for the country including such outrageous concepts as full education for girls and democratic elections. Massoud was assassinated 2 days before 9/11, having warned the West that something was being planned. The remnants of the old Northern Alliance and those who believe in what he stood for are currently in his old stronghold of the Pansjir valley, still defying the Taliban. I fear terribly for them.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

We need Russia/Putin. They keep China in check, China is much more aggressive, just in different ways, but more dangerous than Russia.

Spot on but unfortunately too many people have not moved on from a Cold War mentality.

I would go further and add that China is a greater threat to Russia than the West. A country populated by 1.3 billion people with very few natural resources bordering a very large country with 200 million people and lots of natural resources.

As to Russia - yes, I think evil is a good term to use. You just have to look at their treatment of LBTQ people for a start

Please, do, let us know your thoughts on the Uyghurs. We're fascinated to hear how you square that with your portrayal of the wonderful things that China has achieved

No power can take the moral high ground here, for the USA as one single example I give you the Tulsa Race Riots, a whitewashed part of history, and what has happened since in terms of race. You have quoted propaganda above and the truth is going to be somewhere in the middle. This is important as it is truth and a decent rounded grasp of the facts which is necessary for successful peace negotiation.

I agree with a lot of what @1dayatatimepon says, basically the Ukraine wants to be part of the west culturally and politically and therefore in a military sense too, and Putin is (reasonably) concerned about the consequential proximity of the West in terms of defence and security. He wants to negotiate around this, to get commitment as to what weapons will be based there. He also says that the Minsk agreement has not been adhered to by Ukraine and there is no commitment to do so (there have been violations both sides) and he wants NATO to commit to reenforcing the agreement. The build up of troops is to do with defence and security but we have no idea if he will attack, in the past the West's attempts to predict what Russia will do have been unreliable. Russia's concerns are legitimate and they have requested negotiation and resolution.

Someone linked the article above about Truss' failed attempts at negotiation - it is easy to criticise Russian diplomacy but equally it is extraordinary that a foreign secretary (Truss) would turn up at a negotiation without a basic idea of the facts.

It would help if there were more balance in the media and in the US stance. Macron's attempts at negotiation have been made all about his upcoming election by the media rather than focusing more on the facts behind the disputes which is not helpful either in my opinion. US is constantly accusing Russia of things without evidence, almost as though the US wants conflict. The West has up to this point been terrible at predicting whether or not Russia will attack somewhere - when Russia has attacked the opposite has been predicted so it all seems to be unhelpful warmongering bluster.

I see @westandinhistory

So the genocide of the Uyghurs is just “propaganda” now. I’m sure that’s a great comfort to them all.

Personally I’m more inclined to believe the western press, than controlled propaganda from despotic regimes like Russia and China.

YMMV

@BerylStrip

I see *@westandinhistory*

So the genocide of the Uyghurs is just “propaganda” now. I’m sure that’s a great comfort to them all.

Personally I’m more inclined to believe the western press, than controlled propaganda from despotic regimes like Russia and China.

YMMV

No you misunderstood - what it is propaganda is that the west is entirely good and the east is entirely blameless - like your Personally I’m more inclined to believe the western press, than controlled propaganda from despotic regimes like Russia and China to which YMMV might apply more appropriately. I am not suggesting that our media is lying about the Urghurs or anything else, it is more that they could be reporting more (some media platforms are better than others) with more factual and background info so that most people are better informed.

The reason why we have not had a WW3 yet is due to better diplomacy and understanding nowadays compared to the past. A lack of diplomacy and understanding and writing off other cultures as entirely despotic and suggesting that our own culture is free from despotism is heading towards war not away from it.

I would say that your views for example are extreme and would be less extreme if you were better informed by the media including more facts and background info.