If Ukraine invasion happens - what impacts will we see here?

[saltedBubbly]

So the Russian invasion of Ukraine is looking increasingly likely and imminent.

If it happens, UK and US will have to proceed with sanctions. Russia may well retaliate with cyber attacks and pipeline/ communications cable disruptions.

My friend's DH is ex military. He warned me today to make sure my car fuel and heating oil are topped up. He also recommended making sure I had cash as a cyber attack on the banks/internet is possible.

What other impacts do people think we may face? And what should we do to prep for them?

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

Whilst I accept that Ukraine being invaded is a difficult situation and the temptation is to not respond with force, I think the West has to grow some collective cojones and accept that there comes a point when you have to say 'enough'.

Do you want nuclear conflict over Ukraine?

You might feel strongly about it, but most of us don't.

Of course I do not want that.

If you read my whole post you will see that we have NO good options available to us and that this might be our least worst option.

Do you want Russia to invade and annexe Ukraine ? Because that is what is going to happen if the West does not respond robustly. And my view is that if they do that they won't stop there, and neither will China.

Where, exactly, are you going to draw the line in the sand ? This is exactly the same scenario as mid-30's Europe. The weapons are bigger, the players are different, the scenario stays the same.

@lollipoprainbow no one cares about your trolling responses to every poster, move on unless you actually want to discuss the OPs question.

OP, cyber attacks would be the top concern for me, too! That and just a constant fear of how things will escalate…Russia’s so unpredictable I feel like we’re going to spend the months ahead with no idea of which lines they think are reasonable/unreasonable to cross with Ukraine’s allies.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

China in particular will be watching this very carefully. If Russia invades and the West responds with some sanctions and nothing else my view is they will see this as a green light to take the territories they've always claimed and wanted.

This you are right about, they are watching and Putin is only doing whatever he is doing now, because he has seen the mess the US left in Afghanistan and Iraq and is exploiting their weakness. So stop rattling your sabres there and think for moment.

The scenario, though, is different. In the case of Afghanistan and Iraq we didn't really go in with a clear mandate or plan, and certainly not at the invitation of those governments.

With Ukraine the scenario is different. There is a clearly defined result that is wanted (Russia to not invade/be expelled from Ukraine) and it would be with the sanction of both the government and the people (if the polls are to be believed).

I repeat that I think we have no good options available to us, but that's the situation we find ourselves in. In our own particular case we have a dire set of ministers into the bargain.

Thanks to the people who answered the question.

Somebody mentioned cyber attacks. I remember the NHS computer systems going down a few years ago because they were using ancient software that Microsoft stopped supporting with updates. Does anyone know if they fixed that ? Presumably old systems are more likely to be targets ?

Will we see more unrest in Hong Kong if China acts too?

@cherryonthecakes

Thanks to the people who answered the question.

Somebody mentioned cyber attacks. I remember the NHS computer systems going down a few years ago because they were using ancient software that Microsoft stopped supporting with updates. Does anyone know if they fixed that ? Presumably old systems are more likely to be targets ?

Older systems are more likely to be targetted, yes.

Russia as a state player is behind a lot of serious cyber attacks. Other big players are North Korea (they use to steal cryptocurrencies which they can convert into hard currencies) and probably China although this is less clear cut (or, more likely, they're better at obfuscating).

The Russian navy has been practicing 'military exercises' off the Irish coast. No coincidence that large data 'pipes' between Europe and America go across the Atlantic in this vicinity. Cutting those pipes would be easy and cause a lot of difficulties.

You can see a map of underwater cables here:

www.submarinecablemap.com/

The internet is resilient (it's designed to be so, in part by the US Defense Department) and data will find other routes, but things will become more difficult and services that don't work well with high latencies (video calling for example) will suffer if those data pipes are cut.

@BerylStrip
Do you want Russia to invade and annexe Ukraine ? Because that is what is going to happen if the West does not respond robustly. And my view is that if they do that they won't stop there, and neither will China.

It’s just propaganda from current and former Western imperialists. It’s the West which is the perennial warmonger as a quick glance at any history book will show.

My friend's DH is ex military. He warned me today to make sure my car fuel and heating oil are topped up. He also recommended making sure I had cash as a cyber attack on the banks/internet is possible

Not sure the relevance of him being ex military- he knows nothing more than anyone who can Google.

China has always had the reunification/reabsirbtion whatever of Taiwan as part of its long term play. If you actually listen to the content of Xi’s speeches and compare them to his predecessor you will find nothin has changed in the last decades - all that’s changed is the West is growing increasingly hostile to China as China’s power and influence continues to increase and it’s own diminishes.

@supermoonrising

China has always had the reunification/reabsirbtion whatever of Taiwan as part of its long term play. If you actually listen to the content of Xi’s speeches and compare them to his predecessor you will find nothin has changed in the last decades - all that’s changed is the West is growing increasingly hostile to China as China’s power and influence continues to increase and it’s own diminishes.

Chinese shills go everywhere...

[quote supermoonrising]@BerylStrip
Do you want Russia to invade and annexe Ukraine ? Because that is what is going to happen if the West does not respond robustly. And my view is that if they do that they won't stop there, and neither will China.

It’s just propaganda from current and former Western imperialists. It’s the West which is the perennial warmonger as a quick glance at any history book will show.[/quote]
Stupidity from Chinese shills is neither new nor unobvious

One of the episodes focussed on keeping the Russian ships away from our communication cables under the arctic circle. If these were damaged by the Russians the UK would be without communication with the outside world (no WiFi etc) for weeks. It’d be devastating to our country. I thought we relied on satellites but apparently we don’t

That really is not correct…..satellites still used to a greater and lesser extent for lots of long distance communications.

Cutting undersea cables might/would screw up some comms, perhaps, majorly and might well have an impact on some internet functions but the UK certainly would not be cut off from the outside world.

Symptomatic of the bigger problem Putin faces.

@ArchibaldsDaddy

I’m in the military - and also a Chartered Management Accountant so hopefully fairly credible.

The long and short of it is that ‘it depends’. Likely scenario is a further increase in gas prices given the reliance Europeans have on Russian gas. Maybe a bit of an increase in wheat derives products too depending if it goes into the farming season (there’s not much growing there at the moment).

Beyond that, maybe a bit of minor disruption here and there if there’s a cyber attack, but GCHQ (and others) will have been preparing for that.

I don’t think there’s a doom laden scenario here for us in the UK and a lot of this will be whipped up by our media to deflect from the current political crises. Just have a look at non-UK news sources to see the lack of prominence given to this story…

Of course, if it escalates, it could get exciting…the interesting time will be at the end of the current winter Olympics. But Russia are experts at sabre rattling - the assurance on the Nordstream pipeline is probably the real target here.

Helpful thank you. Less hysteria required all round.

I hear lots of foreign accents at our school gates.
It’s a Private school so presumably it’s not a problem for the racists?

Surely people aren’t so silly to run out and ‘fill up the car’ just in case. Do people have such rubbish memories that they’ve forgotten what happened last time there was a run on petrol.

Just go about your normal life.

Unsettled market values, increase in import costs for countries involved. I would hope we would help the Ukrainian Humanitarian need in what ever way we could. Hopefully it won't happen (I know it probably will), if it does we could see our army going over which could have safety aspects from Russian threats in UK.

@Kshhuxnxk

Food and petrol shortages is my guess along with limits on energy usage. What a lot of drama llamas MN has. The only reason shortages will happen is because you lot wind yourself up into such a frenzy you start panic buying. God get a hobby!

I can't understand this post. Are you saying that an invasion of Ukraine by Russia will cause food,petrol and energy shortages or that people saying this will happen will start panic buying which will cause the shortages?

Panic buying might exacerbate problems but it is an entirely human and rational response if shortages are real and, in particular if the shortages mean there is not enough to go round . If there is not enough to go round, people will try this make sure they and their family have enough. The only way to avoid that is to impose some sort of externally enforced rationing in whatever format is appropriate to the circumstances.

If you are saying that there will be shortages caused by an invasion then the government needs to plan for that. Otherwise there will be panic buying and stockpiling and I don't blame anyone for doing that. In the way that I don't blame anyone for trying to flee a war zone and ending up as a refugee on our borders

@elbea

Surely people aren’t so silly to run out and ‘fill up the car’ just in case. Do people have such rubbish memories that they’ve forgotten what happened last time there was a run on petrol.

Just go about your normal life.

That's easy to say if you don't rely on your car to get to work.

@notimagain

One of the episodes focussed on keeping the Russian ships away from our communication cables under the arctic circle. If these were damaged by the Russians the UK would be without communication with the outside world (no WiFi etc) for weeks. It’d be devastating to our country. I thought we relied on satellites but apparently we don’t

That really is not correct…..satellites still used to a greater and lesser extent for lots of long distance communications.

Cutting undersea cables might/would screw up some comms, perhaps, majorly and might well have an impact on some internet functions but the UK certainly would not be cut off from the outside world.

I'm afraid you're only partially correct. Satellites are used for certain communications - basically those that aren't dependent on low latency and which don't consume large amounts of data.

The data pipelines under the sea are crucial and, if severed, it's hard to know what the repercussions would be. Yes, we have satellite as a 'fall back' but don't forget the Russians 'accidentally' shot down that satellite in November 2021 with no notice. So they have the wherewithal to do that - and we know it too.

It's hard to realise just how much modern life is dependent on data communications and how much we take for granted suddenly being knocked out if a few satellites are 'accidentally' taken out (so sorry, we do apologise) or some undersea cables are severed (so sorry, an accident during a war games exercise).

It may be that the poster above saying this is Russia manoeuvering over the gas pipeline is correct, but their annexation of Crimea makes me less certain that that is the actual endgame.

[quote crosbystillsandmash]@WorstXmasEver

Teacher here.
My class is full of 'foreigners' and thank god because they are, without exception, the politest, most hard working and well adjusted children in my class.

It's the 'locals' that cause all the problems and don't get me started on their parents....[/quote]
Is it entirely necessary to call WorstXmasEver ignorant nonsense out by doing the "No, it's the British who are really awful scum"? thing? Is it not possible to fight stupidity and ignorance without slagging someone else off?

@elbea

Surely people aren’t so silly to run out and ‘fill up the car’ just in case. Do people have such rubbish memories that they’ve forgotten what happened last time there was a run on petrol.

Just go about your normal life.

As you remember the run on petrol, I don't understand why on earth you are so sure it wouldn't be repeated. People ALWAYS do that if there's a shortage - remember pasta and loo paper before lockdown?

Energy prices possibly

Oh no! More people who run here for safety! Stealing our jobs and taking our benefits!!! those foreign speaking people! I hate having a foreign Dr, he/she stole the job I am not qualified to do!
Or the cleaner who cleans my office, the job I don't want to do myself. (I have been a cleaner in the past by the way...this is not meant to be insulting) Or the long queue at the job centre is going to get longer cos of all those foreigners looking for a job and getting in the way of those (not all) who have never had a job in their life...with no intentions to.
If my children were in danger I certainly wouldn't run to another country where they will be safe!

Some people really anger me!

I came on this thread because I genuinely do not know the effects of what could happen in this country. But apparently some are just worried about the 'dumping ground' we are! Tbh...I pride myself that I live in such a Country people would come to. I can put my kids to bed and know they are scared of the monsters in the wardrobe and not the potential of bomber planes in the air!!

Gas prices even higher.

Such a shame we have vast reserves of gas in the UK both in the North Sea and shale, but we have chosen not to use them and instead to rely on imports.