If Ukraine invasion happens - what impacts will we see here?

[saltedBubbly]

So the Russian invasion of Ukraine is looking increasingly likely and imminent.

If it happens, UK and US will have to proceed with sanctions. Russia may well retaliate with cyber attacks and pipeline/ communications cable disruptions.

My friend's DH is ex military. He warned me today to make sure my car fuel and heating oil are topped up. He also recommended making sure I had cash as a cyber attack on the banks/internet is possible.

What other impacts do people think we may face? And what should we do to prep for them?

@FourTeaFallOut and you are certain of this how?

Not sure if this was mentioned as I skipped through the inevitable xenophobia, but I was watching (I think Newsnight) the other week and there was an expert discussing that we actually get very little gas from Russia, so that wouldn’t have a particularly huge effect on us - Germany rely on it unfortunately.

There was a hacking of the foreign office recently, they suspected China or Russia. I imagine cyber attacks will heavily feature.

Because it's not profitable.

[quote Isntisironic1]@FourTeaFallOut pardon? How is what I wrote ridiculous?[/quote]
I think the best way I can demonstrate that your post is ridiculous is for you to print it, pop it in an envelope addressed to yourself and then open it and read it in one year's time and again if possible in 5 years time. Only then will you fully see the ridiculousness of your comment.

Russia doesn't want to go to war over Ukraine, the West does want to go to war and I'm pretty sure Ukraine doesn't want a war. Nobody is going to be using nuclear weapons in a war that nobody actually wants.

And I'm not getting drawn into it. This thread is a particular kind of bollocks littered with dizzying derailments so it's not possible to have a decent conversation about the likely consequences if Russia takes its aggression across the border.

Listen to your friend OP. Get cash. Buy tins and candles. Etc. Look up the old prepper threads on here.

Just what is wrong/offensive anout ‘schlep’, except that it’s probably not strong enough for refugees’ journeys?

I looked it up, partly because I thought it should be sch, not sh (it is) but mostly because I wanted to check the meaning.

It comes via Yiddish from (originally) Middle High German

@FourTeaFallOut

And I'm not getting drawn into it. This thread is a particular kind of bollocks littered with dizzying derailments so it's not possible to have a decent conversation about the likely consequences if Russia takes its aggression across the border.

That's a shame because that's exactly the discussion I was hoping for. Please ignore the derailment and help bring this thread back to something useful!

@FourTeaFallOut

I fully respect your decision to withdraw from this thread.

But please please print out your post on the prospect of a nuclear war and look at it again in a year's time, it will really help you in shaping future views / opinions.

Putin was on tv earlier almost directly threatening Nuclear war. I know it's just sabre rattling but it's pretty scary

Russia doesn't want to go to war over Ukraine, the West does want to go to war and I'm pretty sure Ukraine doesn't want a war. Nobody is going to be using nuclear weapons in a war that nobody actually wants.

The analysis I'm reading is predicting a 21st century version of the Cold War, rather than WW3. So as other posters have said, cyber attacks, fuel disruption etc.

@1dayatatime and @FourTeaFallOut I suggest reading something other than ‘the sun’ and actually get some insight into what is happening in the world.

When your head is firmly in the sand another part of your anatomy is fully exposed ☺️

From what I have read and heard, it is very unlikely that Putin will invade Ukraine as it will not be popular with ordinary Russians.

He is just showing force to prevent them joining Nato or the EU.

@Letsleepingcats you know what, I've just learnt something! I genuinely thought Germany was bigger than 1.5x the UK.

@saltedBubbly

You're are right in that it is sabre rattling. Putin has backed himself into a corner, he doesn't really want to invade Ukraine. The troops are massed there to pressure the West into promising that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO / EU. The West doesn't even really want Ukraine to be a member of NATO either but can't say this publicly.

The West are calling Putin's bluff and thinking we don't really think you will invade but publicly state that we think you will to show we're not scared.

Both sides are being complete dicks and a face saving measure is urgently needed before some error / misidentification / mistake starts an actual war.

A face saving solution for example such as a statement saying:
"The West will always support the integrity of the Ukrainian State recognising the importance of peaceful and co operative relations with it's neighbours. To improve Ukraine's relations with its neighbours and to avoid misunderstanding the West agree to explain and consult with these neighbours on any new proposed security treaties between the West and Ukraine."

Job done - Putin gets a face saving measure, the West was never going admit Ukraine into NATO anyway so is not promising anything new. And everyone goes home happy in time for tea and biscuits.

If comments aren't agreed with then maybe people should say nothing rather than resort to insults, calling people trolls, xenophobes, c words etc. Then the post might have stuck to what it was intended for !

@WorstXmasEver all asylum seekers need a home. I'll happily take 1m and swap them out for you.

I’m in the military - and also a Chartered Management Accountant so hopefully fairly credible.

The long and short of it is that ‘it depends’. Likely scenario is a further increase in gas prices given the reliance Europeans have on Russian gas. Maybe a bit of an increase in wheat derives products too depending if it goes into the farming season (there’s not much growing there at the moment).

Beyond that, maybe a bit of minor disruption here and there if there’s a cyber attack, but GCHQ (and others) will have been preparing for that.

I don’t think there’s a doom laden scenario here for us in the UK and a lot of this will be whipped up by our media to deflect from the current political crises. Just have a look at non-UK news sources to see the lack of prominence given to this story…

Of course, if it escalates, it could get exciting…the interesting time will be at the end of the current winter Olympics. But Russia are experts at sabre rattling - the assurance on the Nordstream pipeline is probably the real target here.

@Casheeeew go on then

What pisses me off about war is that ordinary people die, get injured either physically or psychologically all for some willy waving amongst the people in government. Always has been the same way. Some wanker wants A from B, they wave their willies at each other and then drag ordinary people into war and trauma.

@InglouriousBasterd

Not sure if this was mentioned as I skipped through the inevitable xenophobia, but I was watching (I think Newsnight) the other week and there was an expert discussing that we actually get very little gas from Russia, so that wouldn’t have a particularly huge effect on us - Germany rely on it unfortunately.

There was a hacking of the foreign office recently, they suspected China or Russia. I imagine cyber attacks will heavily feature.

We (UK) don’t…OMG the rest of Europe does though! What that means is that the European supply decreases, the commodity becomes scarce, and international wholesale prices increase (substantially).

And we don’t yet have the logistic infrastructure to import from Qatar yet…

In my view Putin is not entirely sane which makes this difficult. Russia has been reduced to a 'side show' on the world stage which I'm certain sits very badly with him.

The UK has nobody with the intellect and subtlety in government to send to Russia. We sent Liz Truss and that was just excruciatingly awful to witness. Johnson probably things he can phone up Putin with a Peppa Pig joke and smooth it all over. The UK has been taking dirty Russian money for years, and allowing Russian oligarchs to set up show (and donate to the Tories) for years as well. We are not blameless in this and it's high time we cleaned our act up.

If he does invade Ukraine (and it seems likely) I think the question is not "Should the West respond with force ?" but more "Can the West afford to not respond with force ?"

Russia, and China, see the Western powers as decadent in the true sense of the word - decaying. Given the reaction to Russia's annexing of Crimea they would seem to be right. There was some pious hand-wringing and little else. China in particular will be watching this very carefully. If Russia invades and the West responds with some sanctions and nothing else my view is they will see this as a green light to take the territories they've always claimed and wanted. Myanmar, Tibet, Taiwant to name but three.

If China takes Taiwan this is very serious. Much of the cutting edge semiconductor manufacturing is in Taiwan - the West would lose this and China would love to get their hands on it as their tech sector has nothing comparable.

If China successfully annexes Taiwan what would be next ? South Korea ?

Both Russia and China are despicable and appalling regimes and thus far the West has turned what is effectively a blind eye to this - particularly with China where so much manufacturing for Western companies takes place. One option would be for the US, UK and EU to collectively cut these countries off from global finance and enforce this. Putin doesn't care about sanctions but this might well be the shot across the bows he does understand.

In many ways the parallels with Europe in the 1930's are startlingly similar. Are we at the Chamberlain stage (Peace in our time) or the Churchill stage though ?

Whilst I accept that Ukraine being invaded is a difficult situation and the temptation is to not respond with force, I think the West has to grow some collective cojones and accept that there comes a point when you have to say 'enough'.

[quote 1dayatatime]@saltedBubbly

You're are right in that it is sabre rattling. Putin has backed himself into a corner, he doesn't really want to invade Ukraine. The troops are massed there to pressure the West into promising that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO / EU. The West doesn't even really want Ukraine to be a member of NATO either but can't say this publicly.

The West are calling Putin's bluff and thinking we don't really think you will invade but publicly state that we think you will to show we're not scared.

Both sides are being complete dicks and a face saving measure is urgently needed before some error / misidentification / mistake starts an actual war.

A face saving solution for example such as a statement saying:
"The West will always support the integrity of the Ukrainian State recognising the importance of peaceful and co operative relations with it's neighbours. To improve Ukraine's relations with its neighbours and to avoid misunderstanding the West agree to explain and consult with these neighbours on any new proposed security treaties between the West and Ukraine."

Job done - Putin gets a face saving measure, the West was never going admit Ukraine into NATO anyway so is not promising anything new. And everyone goes home happy in time for tea and biscuits. [/quote]
Quite.

You catch a tiger by the tail, you beware of the teeth. Or bear, in this instance.

Putin needs a way out and even the Ukrainian president realises it, but Biden won't back off because he already did it in Afghanistan and needs to be seen as strong now, so is posturing.

Whilst I accept that Ukraine being invaded is a difficult situation and the temptation is to not respond with force, I think the West has to grow some collective cojones and accept that there comes a point when you have to say 'enough'.

Do you want nuclear conflict over Ukraine?

You might feel strongly about it, but most of us don't.

China in particular will be watching this very carefully. If Russia invades and the West responds with some sanctions and nothing else my view is they will see this as a green light to take the territories they've always claimed and wanted.

This you are right about, they are watching and Putin is only doing whatever he is doing now, because he has seen the mess the US left in Afghanistan and Iraq and is exploiting their weakness. So stop rattling your sabres there and think for moment.