@westandinhistory
Appreciated the tl;dr, but I did read everything !
I agree that it has helped enormously that the West has made great strides in understanding other cultures. I am forever reminding people in Board Meetings that you simply cannot apply Western Standards to, say, Japan - a country I know a lot about and understand very well. That's by way of example.
But, where I take exception, is that you seem not to acknowledge the fact that you can criticise in this way because you live in a Western Democracy. If you criticised China, as a Chinese citizen, you might well find youself hauled off to a 're-education facility'. Putin is quite happy to make his own opponents disappear. So, whilst I hear what you say, I think my assessment of these realms as 'despotic' is entirely correct. We are not there yet - although given Ms Patel's bill about protests which was (thankfully) slung out by the Lords, I concede we are clearly heading down this road if we're not careful. But you can criticise, say, Johnson or Patel freely and without fear of being taken away silently and 're-educated'.
Posts saying (I paraphrase) 'we have to understand Russia's point of view of wanting satellite states which are in their orbit and not that of the West in order to feel safe' seem quite innocuous on the face of it. Firstly, what is it the Ukrainians want ? It seems to me they want to become part of the Western sphere - they are candidate members of both NATO and the EU. They don't want to be part of the Russian sphere - and they have previously sampled that offering. Should their wishes just be disregarded to appease Russia ? Where would you like to draw this line ? Latvia ? Estonia ? Finland ? Poland ? All of those countries satisfy the 'satellite states not in Russia's orbit' strategy above. The Baltic states in particular I'm sure are viewed as ripe for picking.
Perhaps the argument should be 'if you can't defend yourself then it's tough'. I can see there is a prima facie argument for this but it doesn't stand up to much scrutiny. That argument would basically mean Russia could ride roughshod over pretty much all of Europe, piece by piece.
I do see, and accept, that Russia has painted itself into a corner. But I would note that this is something they have done to themselves. It's hard to see how the West can offer them a face saving way out of this. I suppose we could say to Ukraine "sorry, no NATO for you" and that might work, but it also sends a clear message that we will compromise so you don't have to. I think the analogy with playground bullies is a good one - they only respect people who stand up to them.
In terms of how to do this, it does not need to be militarily. The West has, for many years, taken Russian money in different ways. The US and UK have Russian oligarchs sitting pretty and spending large amounts of money (often on political donations) and buying up expensive property. Russian bigwigs educate their children at expensive schools in Switzerland, France and so on. A very clear message could be sent here. Cancel their visas, freeze their assets and send them all home. Cut off Russia's access to international banking and make it clear it'll be restored when they start adhering to a more diplomatic way of behaviour and then do it.
However, as things stand I fear that within a month we may well see Russia just steamroller into the Ukraine and then we are really in a bind. It doesn't help that the UK has fairly hopeless politicians at the moment, Biden seems bordering on senile (although we should be grateful it isn't Trump I suppose), Macron is playing to his home audience and the Germans are too frightened of having their gas cut off.
My personal view is that a war is not inevitable, but I fear that the West has neither the skill, the political will nor the cojones to stand up to Russia. Russia has already annexed Crimea with little more than some pious handwringing so why should they think this will play out any differently.
I mentioned this above somewhere, but I do not want war, of course I do not. I fear that it will become harder to avoid if difficult decisions are not taken within the next few days.