@Iheartmysmart
I’d quite happily see SAGE shipped ... somewhere far, far away.
Am I right in thinking that if they’ve carried out about 4.5million tests in the last week and around 120k have tested positive then that’s about 2.5%? My mathematical skills are shocking so sorry if that’s a daft question.
SAGE reckon that the false positive rate with PCR tests is 0.8%-4%.
It can't be as high as 4% because there weren't enough positives, true or false, in the summer. Let's take 2% as a middlish guestimate. That would give 90,000 false positives, out of 120,000.
To be more conservative, Matt Hancock said he thought the false positive rate was 'about' 1%. So that would be 'about' 45,000 false positives.
It may be that a proportion of those 4.5 million tests are lateral flow, which are thought to have fewer false positives (but more false negatives) than PCR.
Interesting, though.