The mumsnet annual winter weather watch thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's slightly mad to start a thread before we've even hit October, but I know that many are quite anxious about the prospects of cold weather this winter, so I'll start it early.

The usual caveats apply : I'm not a professional forecaster. I often get things wrong! Please don't make decisions on what I say - especially ones that have safety or financial implications.

This far out all we can talk about is the balance of probabilities, we can't make predictions. And as we know with probability, the improbable happens!

At some point this thread will start to get confusing as everyone gets excited about christmas weather. I'll start a separate, specific christmas thread about five weeks before Christmas.

Thanks BBK I always enjoy your threads
I've already secured our fuel delivery so am doing my bit towards a mild winter, coal is expensive and going up again in October, doesn't bode well with the has issues.

*gas

Thanks OYBBK. Love a Winter weather thread.

How lovely to see this thread again! Thanks BBK.

ok, now I've got that all out of the way -

It's worth reading the met office contingency planners outlook that suggests that up to the end of November, we are are more likely to have a warmer and potentially drier autumn than average, than the opposite.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-son-v2-secure.pdf

Towards the end of the period and into and through December, I would say that we have a greater chance of a cold start to winter than usual.

It looks likely that we will transition to a La Niña state. This can lead to an early start to winter in the Uk, but it didn't last year.
There are unusually strong indications of an early SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) which can also bring cold and disruptive winter weather.

There are other factors too that I'll come to another time.

I took ages to write that bit

I have my fingers crossed for boring weather this winter. Thanks for the thread.

Placemarking! Thanks OYBBK, I love this thread. Looking forward to a bit of cold, fresh weather!

Great thread! I’ve got fingers crossed for a crisp dry autumn. As a dog owner I hate rain and mud!
I am really worried about the rise in energy prices.

Lovely to see the thread back. I'm worried about the every guy prices too. I'm lucky that we have an open fire and lots of wood left over from last year when we didn't use much but could do without a huge cold snap really.

❤️ your weather threads OYBBK. Thank you.

Oh I love these threads. I have zero intelligence to offer but I’ve just ordered a massive delivery of firewood and the chimney sweep just in case

I guess we need to hope for warm, sunny and windy weather. Bit of an ask for winter!

Thank you OYBBK, I love your weather watching threads.

Masses of firewood already delivered and our second woodburner is being fitted. It'll make a huge difference to our house as the room it is going in is so cold it sucks the heat out of the rest of the house. Given the news on gas and electric issues I think I'll spend the weekend checking draught proofing as well!

I stayed in holiday home that has single layer glass windows but curtains with something sewn between the lining and front to make them really warm.

Well it's actually a very warm stunner of a day here in Herts. I've been for a walk in shorts and t shirt. Where was this in bloody August?!

The met office say that this could be one of the warmest september's on record, with temperatures 3c above average.

I was wondering a few days ago how long it would be before the annual Winter weather thread would make an appearance. And so it begins!

Hurrah! Been looking out for this thread.

Any signs of autumn making an appearance? Much as I like these warm, sunny days I do love proper autumn days with chilly mornings and mist!

It looks more unsettled and windier into next week. The south and east look to generally stay most settled. That pattern generally looks set for a bit I think, with perhaps some wetter interludes in the south.

The wind generation will be useful!

Here.
Still hoping the last of my tomatoes ripen. The sunflowers have finally bloomed though.

I’m still in t-shirts here, but a tree near me has dropped nearly all of its orange leaves.
I have put the car heater on, for the last couple of days, on the morning school run though.
I don’t think this weather is particularly unusual though as I remember sending my DD back to school in her summer dress and short socks a couple of years.

Thanks. Love weather chat.