The mumsnet annual winter weather watch thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's slightly mad to start a thread before we've even hit October, but I know that many are quite anxious about the prospects of cold weather this winter, so I'll start it early.

The usual caveats apply : I'm not a professional forecaster. I often get things wrong! Please don't make decisions on what I say - especially ones that have safety or financial implications.

This far out all we can talk about is the balance of probabilities, we can't make predictions. And as we know with probability, the improbable happens!

At some point this thread will start to get confusing as everyone gets excited about christmas weather. I'll start a separate, specific christmas thread about five weeks before Christmas.

JollyHostess - I think it''s officially 'not humid' now! Our temperature here (Leicester), dropped from 16C-12C, from 8.20am to 8.40am and it absolutely chucked it down. The sun has come out now, the wind's dropped and it's 11.6C

It's pouring down here and I had cold hands for the first time in so long I can't remember. I need to re-waterproof our big coats. It's chilly, wet and windy and lovely and refreshing on the school run. Goretex boots are back out now and full length trousers. Ooh and a jumper. Love it.

Heavy rain and wind this morning. But it's now cleared and is sunny and quite warm.

Reports of a tornado near Grimsby earlier.
www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/live-updates-tornado-hits-humberston-5975256

Just heard the lovely clip clop sound of winter boots walk past my window. Owner evidently dressed according to the Met Office and not by looking out the window as its another glorious day.

@GloriaSmud

JollyHostess - I think it''s officially 'not humid' now! Our temperature here (Leicester), dropped from 16C-12C, from 8.20am to 8.40am and it absolutely chucked it down. The sun has come out now, the wind's dropped and it's 11.6C

Still humid down here in south London! Just ask my hair 😬

[quote OhYouBadBadKitten]Reports of a tornado near Grimsby earlier.
www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/live-updates-tornado-hits-humberston-5975256[/quote]
I clicked that expecting a woman doing a sad face next to a wheelie bin on it's side.. but crikey!

It was quite strong!

Just wondering why on earth we havent had weather warnings today - biblical amounts of rain on and off all day. Bad driving conditions - standing water, flooded roads - are the met office on an away day or something?

I think that's a valid question Makinglists. I'm also wondering why we don't have early weather warnings for the weekend yet given the potential for damaging wind.

Our local weather facebook pages are giving early weather watches for the next few days. These normally mirror the met office but not at the moment!. Yesterday was horrendous - quite a few rivers went into 'flooding is possible'. We are in the SW.

We're forecast really strong winds on Friday afternoon. Bit of a worry when the trees are still so leafy.

Yes, this weekend could see some significant disruption in places. Sorry for the lack of discussion on it. Crazy week.

There has been so much uncertainty over how developmental lows will be, even how many low pressures will form. Never mind exactly which areas will be hit when. But we do look to be hit by severe weather both days at the weekend (and potentially tuesday)
I think we will end up with the seasons first named storm over the next couple of days or so.

Met office warnings.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-10-02

ok, time for a bit of an update.
In the near term the weather should settle down again, away from the NW, (which will remain more unsettled) Some fog, frosts, but also some cloud and rain. Warmer than average though.

Later in November, December there are interesting signals for potentially rather colder weather. Especially interesting is that stratospheric temperatures around the pole are modelled to be anomalously warm later this month and the polar winds look to be weakening. Unusual for so early in the season.

Hints from the met office contingency planners outlook. www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-v2-secure.pdf

Note the comment about renewable energy. Unfortunately unhelpful of the weather.

Ignore unhelpful headlines about imminent snow from certain parts of the media. The snow last week in the Cairngorms is perfectly usual.

oh and I was clearly wrong about a named storm.

Having said, that, there is still a chance of severe gales along southern coastal areas tomorrow night into Tuesday.

Great thread!

It certainly felt stormy in Essex yesterday! Lashing rain and very windy.

Did I read they were predicting snow for late October?

There have been some sensationalist headlines about it from some quarters StAndrewsSchool, but they tend to be by papers and 'meteorologists', who say sensationalist things that only verify by utter chance.

It's possible I guess, over some hilly northern areas, but that wouldn't be unusual. At present there is nothing in the models to suggest more widespread snow at the end of the month.

That’s reassuring. I’m not a lover of snow. It’s pretty, and all that, but I hate it when it turns to ice and becomes dangerous to walk on.

Heads up for tonight in central southern areas, south west and Wales.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-10-04

Heavy rain warnings from the met office, but there's also a chance for thunderstorms in the SW and along the south coast into central south. Strong winds too.

Horrendus rain and driving conditions in west devon tonight - lots of standing water.

I was just coming on to post about that. Looks like a rather sharp squall line has formed along the back edge of the front. That will track westwards. I think there will be some damage from it in places - most likely straight line winds, but the potential for a tornado or so to set up.

South coast here - quite extreme weather lately. Yesterday (Sunday) we had rain that wasn't forecast (soaked my washing) and extremely strong winds on the coast. Then this morning an extraordinarily heavy rain squall, absolutely sheeting down. Then sunny by this afternoon!