The mumsnet annual winter weather watch thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's slightly mad to start a thread before we've even hit October, but I know that many are quite anxious about the prospects of cold weather this winter, so I'll start it early.

The usual caveats apply : I'm not a professional forecaster. I often get things wrong! Please don't make decisions on what I say - especially ones that have safety or financial implications.

This far out all we can talk about is the balance of probabilities, we can't make predictions. And as we know with probability, the improbable happens!

At some point this thread will start to get confusing as everyone gets excited about christmas weather. I'll start a separate, specific christmas thread about five weeks before Christmas.

We are definitely running at signicantly warmer than average this month.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Place marking to keep an eye.

Can you explain what SSW means @OhYouBadBadKitten?

Yes of course :)
It stands for Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

Above the north pole westerly winds circulate up in the stratosphere. (polar vortex). Sometimes those winds weaken or reverse direction. As a result cold air descends and the stratosphere suddenly warms by up to 50c.

That cold air affects the jet stream - it changes its shape. Depending on how, it can cause a large area of high pressure over the atlantic, or over northern europe. The usual wet and windy weather dives south over southern europe and leaves us on the cold side of the jet stream.

That predominantly means cold and dry, but also allows us to sometimes get snow from polar lows, troughs etc.

So for this scenario to end up in cold for us a)an SSW has to happen and b) any blocking high pressure has to end up in the right place.

I'm in - as always I'll be watching and hoping for snow ❄

Oh I know I will be shot down in flames but I live for a bit of snow and cold weather in winter. So despite energy crisis and costs I would like just a little bit at some point .

Can I join in?

I'm a new beekeeper and am anxiously watching the weather so I can help my bees get through winter without many fatalities.
They're currently loving two nearby fields of sunflowers and the ivy is flowering too.

I thought it was south south west 🥴

@GoodnightGrandma

I thought it was south south west 🥴

That's not surprising! it's an unfortunate acronym.

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten

There's going to be a big change in feel to the weather overnight. Summer to Autumn in one cold front. Some potential for thunderstorms this week.

Love these threads @OhYouBadBadKitten
Thank you.

Lots of rain first thing

I have sunburn from watching the sprogs play team games, something which, incidentally, I do not enjoy. I shall, however, remember this feeling of sunshine as the weather deteriorates and be grateful of this thread.

Ignore the random punctuation , I must have heatstroke

TheIrritableGoldfish

The wind from the cold front woke me up just after 3am this morning. Not been back to sleep since. It's going to be a loooooong day.

There is a small chance of a tornado along the squall line showing on the radar. You can see how the line breaks up into 's' shapes. Those can be areas to watch.

@Innovationstandard

Lots of rain first thing

You got that right. It's bloody horrid out there. 🌧🌧

Yep.
Persisting down here in SYorks.
Still not cold yet though.

Sat outdoors basking in the warm sun yesterday here in Edinburgh, now the temperature has finally dropped and it's raining solidly.

I get more work done in cooler weather, plus my hormonal flushes have been driving me mad so I must admit I'm glad to see the fresher air at last.

Not to mention all my cosy jumpers needing a cuddle!

Thanks Bad for doing this again I always like your weather threads.

Absolutely bouncing down here in south Manchester.

I must admit Morris I did get a frisson of excitement to get my big coat back out

Thank you OYBBK. That was really interesting to read.

I love this thread, it marks the changing of the seasons (am starting to think I’ve been here too long). Hoping for a drier winter that is my total wish list, as my long awaited puppy arrives in late November

This is really interesting, thank you.

Love these threads!

I know it's not a request thread but could it stop being so bloody humid please? 😂