The mumsnet annual winter weather watch thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's slightly mad to start a thread before we've even hit October, but I know that many are quite anxious about the prospects of cold weather this winter, so I'll start it early.

The usual caveats apply : I'm not a professional forecaster. I often get things wrong! Please don't make decisions on what I say - especially ones that have safety or financial implications.

This far out all we can talk about is the balance of probabilities, we can't make predictions. And as we know with probability, the improbable happens!

At some point this thread will start to get confusing as everyone gets excited about christmas weather. I'll start a separate, specific christmas thread about five weeks before Christmas.

SW London ..the rain is LOUD !

Ohh ..gone !
Silence .

Had been going for 40 mins. Plus

I’m in east Anglia. We had almost no rain in September (we have very little rain here anyway). On Saturday biblical downpours and then again this morning. I think we are having September’s rain in a couple of days.

Good morning Kitten, just checking in on my favourite thread on Mumsnet
Very wet and fresh this morning in North Manchester

@bizzey

Ohh ..gone ! Silence .

it can be a bit of a sudden end once a squall line has crossed!

Wasn't too bad where I am, steady heavy rain for a bit.

Morning leesmum clear blue sky down here now the rain has passed. (that's close enough to a song)

I just watched a video suggesting that a cold start to winter would be unprecedented following a near record breakingly warm September. But these are unusual times. We shall see.

Models are beginning to show a disrupted polar vortex, with stratospheric warming. It is very early in the season. So despite the video I watched yesterday, it is beginning to look like the models are introducing the idea of cold for November into December.

It could be a very front loaded winter.

Time to test the heating I think, before everyone finds that they can't get. boiler engineers.

Thanks for the update Kitten, always appreciated

You're welcome leesmum :)

So it's time to give up on a warm and sunny winter now, then?

Please please please can you predict that we won’t have the endless rain of last Autumn?😭

At the moment Arse I can't promise a long run of crisp blue autumn skies, but models are being very consistent with showing a blocking high pressure into the back end of October that would keep the majority of the UK, away from northern scotland, pretty much dry throughout.

@FourTeaFallOut

So it's time to give up on a warm and sunny winter now, then?

Yeah probably!

In the Alps here. Had first winter snowfall last night, everything above about 1800m is white.

Lovely Caspian That must look so nice!

at everyone especially OYBBK and Gloria

Thank you for the thread!!

So... on the Star's front page this morning: Snowmagedon ⛄️⛄️⛄️

Is this just the load of tosh I think it is? As I have been wearing my summer dresses for the last few days

I hope not to be honest, a really mild winter would be great for energy prices

Good morning! Thank you for this thread. Thoroughly enjoying current autumn weather.

I just read your bit about the disrupted polar vortex Kitten. Hmm. I know how difficult it is to predict too. Lots of my family have asked me to knit them jumpers, despite how dreadful my sizing is, think long, long sleeves

There is increasing confidence of a disrupted polar vortex, which would affect weather into November, December. I guess one big unknown is whether it will remain weak, or as can be the case, will then strengthen again for the rest of the winter.

Much of Europe is seeing below seasonal average temps at the moment, despite our madly warm weather.

at the extra long arms.

I think we're expecting the first frost tomorrow here in nth Manchester I do love cold, crispy mornings ❄️

Place marking so I get organised. Bought two new jumpers for the office today.

I saw a grit spreader this morning, I'm Central Scotland.

@LizzieMacQueen sorry I read that as "Shit spreader"