The mumsnet annual winter weather watch thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's slightly mad to start a thread before we've even hit October, but I know that many are quite anxious about the prospects of cold weather this winter, so I'll start it early.

The usual caveats apply : I'm not a professional forecaster. I often get things wrong! Please don't make decisions on what I say - especially ones that have safety or financial implications.

This far out all we can talk about is the balance of probabilities, we can't make predictions. And as we know with probability, the improbable happens!

At some point this thread will start to get confusing as everyone gets excited about christmas weather. I'll start a separate, specific christmas thread about five weeks before Christmas.

Currently 3 degrees in Leeds. Brrr!

A tease from the met office
blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2021/10/21/colder-than-average-conditions-for-the-start-of-winter/

Oooo! ⛄️⛄️⛄️? Maybe later on ...

It's quite interesting. After a mild week, with potentially a stormy end, next week looks as though temperatures will drop quite a lot. The polar vortex is currently undergoing a significant weakening.
But then it looks as though it may rebound in strength. This would be an appropriate time to employ the 'who knows' emoji!

What’s likely to happen, if that is the case @OhYouBadBadKitten?

I think that we could end up with cold to start with, but then becoming milder again and perhaps wet.

@OhYouBadBadKitten
Thanks! Yes we are signed up for the flood alerts at my work which always take me by surprise when the automated alert system phones to tell us particular roads are flooding. We are quite near to the Severn and I think it was the year before last that people were evacuated.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/weather/4385978-Extreme-rainfall-expected-in-Cumbria-27th-October
If you are in Cumbria, please take note of this forecast by the met office.

The met office have released their contingency planners outlook. It's interesting - they are generally suggesting that the next three months is most likely to be wet and mild overall, with perhaps some cold in the first part.

This is despite La Niña and an Easterly QBO, both of which would tend to favour cold and blocked.

Weather models have been showing some deepish cold next month, but then toppled back into warm quickly. I think we still need to be ready for cold weather, but if you are a cold weather fan, don't pin your hopes on this winter at present.

Looking around the world

Further snowy scenes around Rovaniemi.

Oh yay! I love it when we get to the snow cams at Rovaniemi and Lapland!

It was 18 degrees here yesterday. In NW England. At the end of October!

Madness.

We are going to feel it when the temperature drops! I've been eating lunch outside in a jumper this week.

@OhYouBadBadKitten Thank you for your helpful reports. It's very mild here in the Midlands. DS is still in T shirts! But yesterday he didn't have a coat on and he was moaning he was freezing! He looked hilarious in my oversized (for him) hoodie!!

Yoohoo! And thanks for the pointer to the thread from the Preppers board BBK. I've name changed, but I'm here every year.

I walk with a stick currently, and have 3 hospital appts per week to attend between Nov and Feb. I'm absolutely terrified of falling on ice. My orthotics specialist has recommended I buy myself some DM's. Has anyone tried those pull on spiky things?

@RainbowZebraWarrior I can recommend Yaktrax which are the original (I think) pull on spiky things and they work a treat. I have very steep hills to climb where I live and hate it when it is icy but I honestly don't have to worry any more.
My in laws bought a cheaper version and hated them as they kept pinging off their shoes and were not as grippy.

Oh that's super helpful thank you @AFingerofFudge I'm going to order some now. I've pondered for years and they are often sold out when the snow and ice does hit badly.

Yaktrax are brilliant! Just keep them in a bag cos they velcro themselves to your favourite woolly hat if you give them a chance.

It came up on my fb memories today that it snowed today 13 years ago (2008). Can anyone remember?!

I've just posted this link on a different thread.
digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/index.php?name=SO_86058de1-8d55-4bc5-8305-5698d0bd7e13 It's a weather archive by date.

Thank you, OYBBK!

@RainbowZebraWarrior

Yoohoo! And thanks for the pointer to the thread from the Preppers board BBK. I've name changed, but I'm here every year.

I walk with a stick currently, and have 3 hospital appts per week to attend between Nov and Feb. I'm absolutely terrified of falling on ice. My orthotics specialist has recommended I buy myself some DM's. Has anyone tried those pull on spiky things?

The school run is like a iceslide in winter.

DH bought me a pair of climbing / mountain bike trainers (fiveten trainers but they have since been taken over by addidas). The rubber is super grippy and amazing. No more falling on my arse or worrying about falling over.

Crampons are a waste of time on pavements in ice (not enough in the uk apart from when its really snowy).

Thanks @RedToothBrush so helpful ❤

Does anyone know a decent lightening map website at all? Very heavy rain in the SW and am sure heard loud rumbles of thunder, but can’t see any evidence online suggesting this to be the case 🤷🏼‍♀️

We use lightningmaps.org. Don't know how accurate they are but easy to waste hours tracking storms across the world.