Article on the threat to UK women from Afghan immigrants

[SwirlyGates]

"The statistics clearly show that Afghan nationals pose a disproportionate threat when it comes to sex offences. Last year, Sky News’s data and forensics unit – using annual population survey data from 2021 and Met Police figures – found that, for Afghan nationals, there were 59.2 sexual offence charges per 10,000 across England and Wales. The corresponding figure for UK nationals was 2.7 offences per 10,000 people."

https://www.spiked-online.com/2026/08/17/we-need-to-talk-about-afghan-sex-offenders/

The Spiked article actually misrepresents the Sky article, which does a deeper dive into the data and concludes "Our estimates conclude that Afghans are closer to three times more likely to be convicted of a sexual offence than someone born in the UK". NB though age is mentioned, i.e. recent migrants are more likely to be young and criminally active, neither seem to analyse sex, though it is mentioned in Farage's figures - there must be more male immigrants than female; presumably this has been taken into account?

More and more I find the threat, especially to women, troublesome and worrying. To generalise, the Left view all immigration as all fine and dandy; the Right disagree and want it reduced or stopped. On the other hand, Burnham's proposal to place asylum seekers in middle-class areas implicitly shows that he knows that they are problematic: "We cannot have a situation where it's only the poorest communities in the country that receive all of the dispersal of refugees and asylum seekers." If the refugees and asylum seekers are beneficial to the UK, which is promoted as the Left-wing view, then he would be saying that the rich/middle class areas will benefit from his plans, rather than saying they need to share the burden. "Blackpool, and other communities ... have had to take more than their fair share of asylum seekers," she [immigration minister Anna Turley] added. "That's put a huge burden on local communities and created real civil unrest." www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c204d4z1gg8o

TL:DR Are male immigrants, especially illegal ones, a particular threat to women, and if so what can be done?

I think that people argue that immigration is beneficial to the UK because immigrants work, in skilled and unskilled jobs that British citizens aren't doing. But asylum-seekers aren't allowed to work, so people don't see a benefit from having a large number of asylum-seekers housed in their town.
There are certainly legitimate concerns over crime, and in particular sexual crime. I've looked at figures produced by the police in Germany, which show that immigrants from certain parts of the world are far more criminally active than others. I think we need some statistics and analysis in the UK. Without that, there's plenty of room for prejudice and accusations of prejudice.

I think we need some statistics and analysis in the UK.

I think so too. The Sky article I linked does have some analysis, and I've seen breakdowns from other countries which showed sky-high rates of sexual assault, rape and murder by immigrants/refugees from certain countries - as I recall, Somalians topped the list in most categories. But everyone has an agenda, and it can be hard to know the truth.

If it's true though, that certain nationalities are more problematic than others, what can be done? Send all asylum seekers from those countries straight back? (Is that legal under international law?) Do better checks for those nationalities? (What accurate checks can you do for someone who has arrived illegally, when some even knock a decade off their age to pretend to be teenagers, and no-one can prove it?)

I have felt this way for a while about the risks to women and girls in areas where men from certain cultures are in higher numbers. But whenever you voice these concerns, you are labelled as racist, anti immigration, right wing etc. Then people are afraid to speak up. It echoes the attitudes which allowed the Rochdale gang to go on for so long.

Proper statistics would be really helpful.

Something to send to More or Less for the wonderful Tim Hartford to dig into?

It might help our country if the statistics were undoctored, definitive, and presented to the general public as a whole, and discussed in parliament as a threat to be addressed. Without publication of reliable data, useful constructive discussion will be shut down by the knee jerk accusations of racism, and truth will be swamped by emotional manipulation.

It might help our country if the statistics were undoctored, definitive, and presented to the general public as a whole, and discussed in parliament as a threat to be addressed

Not really.

Oh ok! I see now how wrong I was. My bad.

You can tell age from people's teeth, so perhaps young people claiming to be children while having no paperwork with them should receive a dental check unless they are clearly a child. There are cases of young men being put into foster care and sent to school and a dental check then showing that they are well into their twenties.
You have to go through a process before you send people back. But of course the UK immigration system is very slow and inefficient.
We need some objective research. For instance, in Germany there is a high crime rate from people coming from Morocco. Apparently that's because those people are mostly young men coming from a gang culture, so they were criminals before they emigrated, rather than being average Moroccans.

What is your objection to the production of objective, well-researched statistics? In Germany, crime statistics divided by nationality are published by the police and are widely distributed and discussed in newspapers. What's wrong with that? Providing that kind of information to the public is part of how a healthy democracy works.

Statistics are meaningless in the face of religion.

And that's what the whole "debate" has become.

Statistically (for example) more people die from the direct effects of alcohol addiction than from all illegal drugs in a year in the UK.

So what does that tell us about statistics ? They are valuable when they are on your side, and a pain in the arse when they aren't.

I've lived my entire professional life slicing and dicing data to glean insights from it.

Its insane that women in Britain are expected to just put up with an influx of men from cultures very very different to out own.....from countries which women most likely would not chose to visit.

And yes, the type of immigrant, from whatever country, may not reflect the average population. I would think, for a start, that men who come over in small boats (not talking about other types of immigration here), are risk-takers, younger than average, less likely to have families to consider...Perhaps they are more likely to be criminals than average - after all, they are taking illegal routes of entry.

Look at the films of the men entering Ceuta - nearly all young, athletic men. I might be wrong but I couldn't see a single woman in the footage.

As for teeth checks, proposals have been made but I'm not sure what the latest position is.
https://inews.co.uk/news/home-office-x-raying-migrants-age-2846156
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/02/01/labour-waters-down-illegal-migrant-age-checks/

Some years ago, dental hygienist Bernt Herlitz was fired in Sweden for raising the alarm over the age of supposed minor refugees who were much older than they said.

So in the face of a country divided by ideology, we should be publishing meaningful statistics. Otherwise 2 warring sides are fighting each other in the dark. If we give up on statistics, what are we basing policies on - soundbites and the charisma or otherwise of political leaders?

Yes, that cuts all ways. So what do you think should happen?

I work with many asylum seekers from Somalia and Afghanistan. They are all severely traumatised. The immigration system does not treat them with any humanity at all- it is not surprising the crime rate is higher in this group- why act with humanity when you’re not treated with it.

I also expect someone from Somalia would be much much more likely to be convicted that a white English man

I'm rather confused here as to what point you're trying to make.

You're rather going over the top of my head.

"Statistically (for example) more people die from the direct effects of alcohol addiction than from all illegal drugs in a year in the UK."

But given that very many more people consume alcohol than illegal drugs you would expect that to be the case. Just having a quick look at some ONS figures it would appear that there are around three times as many people who die from alcohol as die from illegal drugs.

According to NHS England around 80% of adults said that they drink alcohol. According to the ONS around 3% of people reported using a Class A drug (very few deaths came from Class B drugs).

So, for every person taking an illegal Class A drug there are around 26 people consuming alcohol.

Yet the total number of deaths is only three times higher.

I'm sorry but I really don't understand your point.

The key lesson I take from this is we need very accurate data. It shouldn't be hidden to avoid stigmatising certain groups. To be accurate on sex offences, the first thing that the stats need to show are comparisons between males in the same age range. And, of course, we have to look at reporting rape and prosecuting rape. Are certain groups more likely to be reported and prosecuted? I have no idea what answers we would get. I am still thoroughly annoyed every time someone talks about violence against women and girls, not saying MALE violence against women and girls. It needs to be very clear, at every stage of the discussion, exactly what we're dealing with.

I have worked with refugees too, from sub-Saharan Africa mainly. The majority are fine, coming to the UK with thoughts of bettering themselves. Not necessarily genuine asylum seekers but with a harmless mindset. A significant minority however have a very poor view of women. That’s natural. That’s their culture. They think western women are ‘easy’ and will willingly sleep with them, because that’s what they’ve been taught from films, social media etc. See Bonnie Blue. See also most western films where the leading male sleeps with women he’s barely met.

For these reasons there is no way I’d want an asylum seeker in my house.

Of course we need accurate data. We ought to be able to make decisions at the ballot box while fully aware of the relevant facts. It’s undemocratic for this information to be withheld.

I have met several Somali refugees and most are nice people who want to escape hell on earth, work hard and make a home. But my late brother's best friend was attacked with a machete by a group of Somali youths many years ago and left paraplegic and without speech. His family looked after him with love for decades and my brother visited him often. Death released him. My brother still carried the guilt that the night his friend had been attacked he had no gone out with him. He hanged himself a month or so after the funeral, possibly not intending to die but as a cry for help, for he was deeply depressed - we could find no note. This has never affected my feelings about asylum seekers but sometimes I worry just a bit. People, but young men especially, from countries with little respect for women and where war has worn down sensibilities and moral systems are probably not ideal new recruits to our ship - at least not without a huge investment in education and acclimatisation.

I honestly think it’s deranged when people say ‘ I met x and they seemed perfectly ok’ as if that actually means anything. Do y’all think criminals have it written in their foreheads and confess it at every opportunity?!

I agree. We also need more commentators from across the political spectrum engaging with that data. The left seems to persistently make the mistake of refusing to talk about some issues, leaving fertile ground for the right (in its broadest sense) to monopolise the narrative.

It’s true, the Left refuse to engage with any open mindedness. It’s to their detriment. Who wants to be thought of as “ Loony”?! They have a lot of calm logicality to learn, in order to shake off the image they have gained.

Along with the native Neanderthals. Absolutely.

What makes you think that? The opposite may be true. We need those statistics.