Neither of these people are trying to hurt others, just trying to feel comfortable in their own skin in a complex world.
I should imagine this describes the vast majority of autistic adolescents who find themselves believing that they have a gender identity that differs from their sex. Unfortunately the world becomes more complex when adults tell children that not following sex-based stereotypes could indicate that they are in the wrong body.
One is dd1’s friend who is female to male trans. Transitioned during covid after her mum died from falling down the stairs drunk. She was an alcoholic and the dad seems great but clearly very traumatic for the child who was 13.
Losing a mum at a young age is such an awful situation. Hopefully this transition hasn't (yet) involved any permanent changes e.g. hormones or surgery. Autism-related puberty distress and response to trauma (e.g. trying to become someone new, who is perhaps perceived to be a stronger person) would be two obvious areas to explore.
The other is my friend’s son (now daughter) who is autistic and was always awkward and uncomfortable but has felt much happier since changing gender (has no penis anymore).
If your friends child is now happy, that' a good thing. But how could anyone know that your friend's child (who is presumably 18 or older to have had surgery) will continue to feel happy at having made the decision to permanently remove a body part? Incidentally is that what you mean by "changing gender"? i.e someone who modifies their genitals to look like those of the opposite sex has changed gender but someone who hasn't done this (such as Jordan Gray) has not?
overall, I think the rhetoric to be anti trans is unhelpful but I do think clear boundaries are needed - avoid writing birthing people as much as possible (we always say women but sometimes birthing people are added on and I hate it).
What do you mean by "anti-trans"? There are people who think it's anti-trans to say that it's women who give birth. Words like anti-trans and transphobia are incredibly subjective.