Talking to non GC people

[Sausagenbacon]

I've been chatting to a few people recently about gender issues, and their opinion runs roughly like this ' we should all listen to each other, and not be so unpleasant. But of course, men shouldn't be in women's sports'
Which begs the question that, if GC people hadn't been 'unpleasant' men would have been firmly in women's sports.
So, should I be pleased that public opinion has shifted slightly, or should I be banging my head against the wall?

Soft is arguing that young pretty 'dolls' should be allowed in women's spaces, while being happy for the 'bricks' to remain marginalised.

By the same logic, women who don't look cute and womanly enough would have to use the men's.

This is a bizarre line of thinking.

True! The Doll/Brick divide is being upheld.

But those bricks do get a lovely certificate to prove that they are 'true and honest women' once they are chemically or surgically castrated under Soft's system.

I think that a significant issue with any one who starts to talk about 'middle ground' or 'moderate' views has only their own perception of what is and what is not middle ground or moderate to go by.

Hence over the past few days I have been very confused about whether posters are talking about their person 'middle ground' or whether they are making judgement statements as to what other people who say they are believers in 'middle ground' believe. And I was confused as to how people know what 'middle ground' believers all think. Blanket statements are actually rather misleading, maybe complete bollocks and it then is meaningless.

Over the past years, I don't believe that I have seen one workable suggestion from someone claiming to have a 'middle ground' compromise. Those people generally end up being someone who simply never thought deeply or from the many different aspects needed.

The 'compromise' inevitably is .... third spaces.

It is always, always jarring then to see third spaces offered up as if feminists have not been recommending this for at least a decade. Yet, feminists are constantly described as extremist.

As a disabled person I hate the use of third spaces. It should be fourth.

@Taztoy Thank you for reminding me about your traumatic story. I worry about my posts sometimes because I have to explain why single sex designs are better and there’s a fine line between informing people who don’t get it and upsetting people who understand it all too well.

I get very upset by some of the stories I catalogue sometimes and have to take a break for my own sanity. I do not collate anything on here unless there’s a verified court case or published account somewhere else but the stories back up my data that is verifiable.

xx

@Keeptoiletssafe it’s hard because I don’t post about it elsewhere. I don’t have any social media other than here and anonymous sites because I know he and his legal team will use all they can against me (which is how the system works it’s not a complaint as such)

@SoftBalletShoes

You are obsessed with the external appearance of transwomen, and whether or not they "pass", regardless of the obvious use of filters online and the fact that appearance is absolutely not the point.

You say the hormone treatment turns men effectively into women for all practical purposes like safety. I have been told this is untrue, and that transwomen have the same level of criminality, including sexual crimes, as other men. However, I do not have a link to evidence (maybe someone else does?)

Do you have any evidence to back up your statement?

will this work?

REBECCA PAUL'S (MP REIGATE) QUESTION ON MALE PEOPLE WITH TRANSGENDER IDENTITIES IN UK PRISONS

This was a question answered in Parliament in 23 December 2024:

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-12-16/20298.

Question from Rebecca Paul (MP Reigate): To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, with reference to the HMPPS Offender Equalities Annual Report 2023-2024, published on 28 November 2024, how many of the 50 transgender prisoners who reported their legal gender as female were convicted of a sexual offence.

Answer from Sir Richard Dakin (MP Scunthorpe): 23 December 2024
Of the 245 transgender prisoners who reported their legal gender as male (i.e. those who now identify as women, non-binary or gender-fluid) on 31 March 2024, 151 were convicted of a sexual offence. This includes both contact and non-contact sexual offences. Offence data was not available for 1 individual.

Of the 50 transgender prisoners who reported their legal gender as female on 31 March 2024, the number convicted of a sexual offence is five or fewer. We do not provide exact data for such small sample sizes as it risks identification of individuals. This approach is in line with our standards on data disclosure.

Just a note on this:

Regarding the % of male prisoners in UK with transgender identities. The mentioned above for the year ending 31 March 2024 had the figure that 151 of the 243 male prisoners in the UK prisons had at least one sex offence on their record.

The ratio changed from 43.3% (88/203) having at least one sex offence to their name at 31 March 2023 to 151/243 to 62.1% as at 31 March 2024.

The increase of the overall number of male prisoners with transgender identities in the UK prisons between 2023 and 2024 was only 42 yet the increase in the sex offenders was 63.

In 2019, there were 3.3% of female people in UK prisons were sex offenders. I haven’t looked up the stats since. But I wouldn’t expect this will be different. Last time I looked at the raw stats for female sex offences, they had remained stable numbers for a decade or more despite population growth.

For male people with transgender identities to have the same rate of committing sex offences, there would be 8 (3.3% of 243) prisoners with trans identities in the UK prison population with sex offences.

8

Not 151.

And if someone tries to suggest that the majority of these male prisoners have declared that they are women to gain access to the female prisons, I doubt this is true.

Considering the sex crime numbers for that prison population jumped from 88 to 151 male prisoners with a sex offence that declared they were women in a year (31 March 2024 to 31 March 2024) AFTER the publishing of the guidance in early February 2023, I seriously doubt these new prisoners are making declarations for the benefit of getting into the female prison.

This linked thread has studies and stats for these sort of discussions if that helps

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/womens_rights/5445880-statistics-poll-evidence-archive-thread?reply=149263368

This could help too.

PROFESSOR ALICE SULLIVAN'S LETTER TO THE JUDICIAL OFFICE REGARDING KEMP'S MISUNDERSTANDING OF THE CRIME RATE FOR MALE PEOPLE WITH TRANSGENDER IDENTITIES

https://x.com/ProfAliceS/status/2000532626243756399?s=20

I have written to the Judicial Office for Scotland in relation to errors in the interpretation of evidence in the Sandie Peggie case.

To: Judicial Office for Scotland [email protected]

Dear Sir/Madam,

I write in relation to the Judgment in the case of Peggie vs Fife Health Board and Upton.

While some of these points have already been discussed in the public domain, the judgment suggests a preference for a ‘skilled witness’ regarding research evidence. As a professor of sociology at UCL with many years of experience in the field of social statistics, I trust that I meet the criteria to be considered as a skilled witness.

Paragraph 1047 suggests some confusion on the part of Judge Kemp regarding the following publication: Dhejne, C., Lichtenstein, P., Boman, M., Johansson, A.L., Långström, N. and Landén, M., 2011. Long-term follow-up of transsexual persons undergoing sex reassignment surgery: cohort study in Sweden. PloS one, 6(2), p.e16885.

The judgment notes: ‘The following was stated “Transsexual individuals were at increased risk of being convicted for any crime or violent crime after sex reassignment (Table 2); this, however was only significant in the group who underwent sex reassignment before 1989.” ‘

However, this is sentence is irrelevant to the point at hand. The judge appears to have either misinterpreted the evidence or missed the point.

The paper states ‘regarding any crime, male-to-females had a significantly increased risk for crime compared to female controls (aHR 6.6;95% CI 4.1–10.8) but not compared to males’. In other words, the paper finds that ‘male-to-females’ retained a male pattern of criminal convictions.

The judge’s misinterpretation of Dhjene et al, combined with his dismissal of Ministry of Justice data on the grounds that clicking on hyperlinks would have been required to gain access to the relevant documents, underpinned his conclusion in paragraph 1049 ‘In our view, having read all of the documents, there is very far from sufficient reliable evidence to establish as a fact that a trans woman who is legally and biologically male is a greater risk to any person assigned female at birth within a changing room environment at a workplace than another woman assigned female at birth’.

This conclusion is based in error. In addition, it misunderstands the burden of proof. It is well-established that males are far more likely to commit violent and sexual crime than females. In order to argue that this does not apply to a subset of males, one would need strong positive evidence of this point.

I would add some further evidence. The most recent data from His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS, 2025) further supports the view that males who identify as transwomen retain a male pattern of offending. Only around 4% of the prison population in England and Wales is female. The transgender prison population in 2025 (0.4% of prisoners) included over four times as many biological males (276) as females (63). If transwomen were counted as women, they would constitute 7.3% of women prisoners.

I hope this is helpful.
Yours faithfully,
Professor Alice Sullivan, UCL

and this

Here is data from the MoJ
Here is an FOI request from 30 April 2024

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/populationoftransgenderoffend/response/2641337/attach/html/7/FOI%20240322022%20Annex%20A.xlsx.html

Up to the 31st March 2023, the MoJ stated that of the 88 male transgender prisoners with one or more sexual offences.

The breakdown was
48 rapes,
0 attempted rapes,
10 Sexual assault or attempted sexual assault,
13 causing or inciting a child under 16 to engage in sexual activity,
0 indecent assault or gross indecency
6 sexual activity with a child under 16
0 other

77 listed here.... BUT there is a total of 88 in the total so there is 11 crimes not noted.

Possessing or making indecent photographs or pseudo photographs of child has not been recorded in this FOI.

However, there is are further discrepancies in the data of the following when you look at TOTAL NUMBER OF TRANSGENDER PRISONERS SENTENCED FOR A PRINCIPAL SEXUAL OFFENCE.

1 causing or inciting a child under 16 to engage in sexual activity
3 rapes
2 sexual activity with a child under 16
3 Sexual assault or attempted sexual assault,
This equals 9 additional... however the sum for TOTAL NUMBER OF TRANSGENDER PRISONERS SENTENCED FOR A PRINCIPAL SEXUAL OFFENCE is 99.

Therefore 2 more sex crimes have been hidden from this data.

There were 203 males who were declared as transgender in the prison at the time.

There were 24 NB who were not segregated into male and female.
What is key here, is that THIS IS NON-GRC HOLDERS. And we all know that males holding GRCs have increased and they are excluded from this data. NO female people with transgender identities were sentenced to a principal sexual offence. There were 41 female people with transgender identities in UK prisons at that time.

As a comparison, I have stats that say as of April 2019 that the general male MoJ data for male sex offenders was just 16.8% of the male prison population.
And there were 3.3% of female people in UK prisons were sex offenders.
I will leave you to do your own sums. But... even using the figure of 88/203 is 43.3%. (And that doesn't include making or possessing indecent photographs of a child remember.)

By the way this exercise was done in 2021. And I checked this data myself from the data source and it was correct at the time. So, it will give some back ground to the above.

The ones that say that in the March/April 2021 data collection period, the MoJ stated that of the 97 transgender prisoners with one or more sexual offences.
The breakdown was

40 rapes,
8 attempted rapes,
31 possessing or making indecent photographs or pseudo photographs of child,
32 Sexual assault or attempted sexual assault,
20 causing or inciting a child under 16 to engage in sexual activity,
10 indecent assault or gross indecency
9 sexual activity with a child under 16
27 other

The 97 sex offender transgender prisons collected 177 sentences between them.

And that according to that FOI 197 prisoners are transgender.
This is why NO SUB GROUP OF MALE PEOPLE SHOULD BE EXEMPT FROM RISK ASSESSMENT. This group of male people still retain the same male pattern of committing sex and violent crime, at ANY STAGE OF TRANSITION.

Thank you! Very interesting…

To play devil's advocate: is there a way to answer the argument that the percentage is only so high because the transwomen are less likely than other men to have committed other violent crimes? (Just trying to be prepared)

Do you mean that they commit sexual offences because they are less likely to commit violent crime?

I haven't seen any statistics pulled out on violent crimes specifically by male people with transgender identities. It could be worth trawling the FOI site https://www.whatdotheyknow.com .

Or you could look at this to see if some of these academics have mentioned it:

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/18973/html/

@Tooobvious

That link to the WEC evidence that I linked has a comment about the Swedish study:

The study provides strong evidence that policy makers cannot safely assume (a) that transwomen’s offending patterns, including violent offending, will be significantly different than those of the general male population or (b) that they will be similar to those of the general female population.

That is all I have without FOI requests pulling this data out.

Thank you. I meant, is it possible that the overall number of transwomen in prison is lower than might be expected because they don’t tend to commit crimes such as GBH or robbery, for example, meaning that if they still commit sexual crimes at the expected level, these then form a higher percentage of the total. But it seems not.

I see.

There might be an argument for that. However, the stats when you review them as to the proportion of male people with a transgender identity in prison because of sex offences compared to the general male population, looking at violence stats is not really relevant. Because looking at the % of prisoners who are male with transgender identities in prison for sex offences compared to other offences is just one way to splice the data.

The other is % of prisoners who are male with transgender identities in prison for sex offences vs the male population with transgender identities compared to the % of male people in prison for sex offences. And this rate is also high. There is a graphic floating around that shows this.

Neither have the sex offence category of crime been shown to be committed at equal or lower than for female people. ie. % of prisoners who are male with transgender identities in prison for sex offences compared female people. No where near as low as for female people.

What is also very important to note is that there has been noticed in the UK and in Australia that some male people with transgender identities receive non-custodial sentences because they are deemed 'too vulnerable' due to their transgender status. I actually went through and checked the cases I had access to. So, there has been arguments that the number of transgender male people in prison is artificially high due to discrimination factors.

I don't believe this to be true. If anything, I think that because these are not convictions but prisoner stats that it may be light on considering what I discovered with some rudimentary research.

Don't mind me. I'm just popping in to wring out the cloth you've all used to wipe the floor with these ridiculous arguments <helpful>.

Particularly the one that said men would never go through all that surgery to access women, and in the same breath suggesting that it should be the only way to access them.