@BaronMunchausen
Carrier has written extensively on this - I don’t really understand his Bayesian probability stuff, but his field knowledge is solid.
This is sub trend in field of academic history - to apply quantitative methods to assertions made about uncertain historical subjects; so it's not original with Carrier, but he does an excellent job of utilizing it. My very clumsy reference to an expanded body of data-points being consistent with a historical Jesus was an attempt to allude to it. With respect to Carrier, it addresses, among other things, the issue of a hypothetical conclusion X that depends on probable propositions a, b, c - if a, b, and c are necessary and sufficient for X, independent, and each 75% likely to be true, then X is statistically somewhat unlikely to be true. Most people would be surprised by that and rather expect X to be true. The use of numerical methods provides a way of testing the strength of arguments, applying Occam Razor in a continuous way and defending against that psychological phenomena. Of course it can also be used to make argument appear stronger than they are but Carrier exercises considerable care to use in ways that are valid and to not overstate the results.
Paul’ Epistles are of course (with the possible exception of Hebrews) the oldest thing in the NT rather than in the Bible.
Yes, that was me being careless.