I just watched this. Weirdly I put it on my watchlist before I knew what it was about exactly as I was curious to see the spectacle.
I'm going to say spoiler alert for those who will watch the film....
It's an absolute mess of a film. The reason this actor should not win is because their performance is not very good frankly. The whole film has a shallow and nonsensical script. There is zero character development. If they think in any way this celebrates trans people, it does the exact opposite but only if you actually think about it beyond the way the utterly narcissistic main character sees things.
In the way we've all read the awful time trans widows have had, this shows up the chaos all around the central character getting what he wants at all costs as a man or trans woman. That his own wife doesn't recognise him seems crazy. She is clearly still a strong, muscular person with a male physique except for the fake boobs and hair and nails and lips.
Some bizarre redemption story that just by means of transitioning, the person literally becomes a better person... only to show the violent monster again when she doesn't get her own way.
It's just terrible. It seems utterly vacuous and shallow. I think they think they've made great art and that anyone is taken in , is the emporers new clothes. To be fair, I don't think any performance in the film is good because I don't think the actors could really get any emotional depth out of it.