This is an interesting quote Ross Tucker has clipped from the CAS finding.
It says:
“Because they are "biologically indistinguishable.. in all relevant respects". athletes with 5-ARD experience the same ergogenic effect from these physiological changes as males without DSD experience. The only material physical difference between 5-ARD athletes and male athletes without DSD is "the size and shape of their external genitals", which has no impact on athletic performance.”
“While no 5-ARD athlete has yet won a women's event by a margin of 10-12%, this fact has nothing to do with their condition. Rather, it reflects the fact that, "the particular [5-ARD] athletes we have seen thus far are not as good as the best males. Like many other (non-elite) males, they still beat the very best biological females, just by a smaller margin."”
https://x.com/scienceofsport/status/1722006033491513584?s=46&t=HTxp6zC_d4GZ2FFv4a-YeQ
His tweet says:
“It's interesting that this came up in the CAS hearing, too. World Athletics had kind of tap danced and skirted around it in the Chand case, but when Semenya played this card at CAS, World Athletics responded, and point 289 of the CAS decision captures the conclusion:”
for anyone who didn’t catch the significant part I will pull it out:
”The only material physical difference between 5-ARD athletes and male athletes without DSD is "the size and shape of their external genitals", which has no impact on athletic performance.”
So court documents state Semenya has 5ARD and then this paragraph is clear that these are male athletes and that they are not elite standard male athletes compared to where the scientific and medical evidence predict their development and competitiveness should be. Maybe this is another version of the influence of low expectations as we have seen in that USAF study where the males, when allowed to be assessed using the female lower pass boundary in the physical tests, saw reduced performance. Ie. If the athlete doesn’t have to perform at the highest rate possible for them, they won’t.
To be blunt, if Semenya didn’t need to perform at the highest performance level possible for them, why would they? Doing so would increase their own risk if injury and of ending their career. Could they have succeeded in the elite male category if that was the level they trained to? We will never know.