"I think Labour are in for a real shock at the next election. [...] At the current rate of shambolic progress Labour could lose yet another one, again. And if they do we'll get the same old tired "we need to reflect on what went wrong". Reflect now before you lose you muppets. Do the soul searching, head scratching, arse sniffing, and "what could we have done different"ing right now. Open your eyes and ears and listen to the public you want to govern."
It is worth remembering that Blair won in '97 because his team (ahem Mandelson) essentially remade the Labour party of the '70s and '80s into a new political entity. They rebranded the whole thing as "New Labour" and salami-sliced the population into distinct demographics (such as Worcester Woman) with specific targeted messages for each.
They didn't just listen to the electorate; they scrutinised them.
My feeling is that it is going to take something similar again. Labour is now carrying a similar legacy to the one Kinnock had to deal with back in the day: a militant section of the party wreaking havoc, traditional voters moving rightwards in droves, the rise of new political forces on the landscape, strike action, a sense they are massively adrift from ordinary people.
Just because the polls say something doesn't mean it's going to happen. Everyone thought Labour would win in 1992, but it took another five years and the wonderboy Blair to deliver the victory. And I strongly feel that only Blair could have won in 97 -- Kinnock was just too associated with the landscape of 70s and 80s Labour.
And this is the thing. For Labour to win, they have to divorce themselves totally from the Labour phenomenon of the last ten years, the Labour where over three quarters of the British electorate are "hateful bigots": Brexit voters, white van men, feminists, sportswomen, public servants and community activists that worry about safeguarding, people who hang the England flag outside when it's the world cup, people who like the last Night of the Proms, anyone who goes "hang on, you can't let blokes into ladies loos", people who vote Conservative, people who vote for Labour MPs that Labour militants don't like, people who just don't vote because they've had enough of it all, people who didn't take the knee, people who think die-ins are really stupid, people who drive cars ... and don't even get me started on the invective thrown at people of colour who dare to vote something other than Labour.
When you boil it down, the only people who aren't "hateful bigots" are the people busy calling everyone else hateful bigots. I'd be surprised if there is 100,000 of them.
And don't think the public don't notice. They do.
This shit is just electoral suicide. And people remember. For crying out loud, older people still remember Michael Foot wearing a donkey jacket at the cenotaph (even though it wasn't actually a donkey jacket).
In my view, they can't turn it around in two years. They need to win the Brexit voters back for a start, and I can't see that happening any time soon.