1 in 585 trans women are currently incarcerated for sexual offences

[GCITC]

Thanks to the census data, we can now show that 1 in every 585 trans women and England and Wales are convicted sex offenders.

That compares to 1 in every 2500-3000 men and 1 in every 243000 women.

twitter.com/mar2vickers/status/1611484662093828127?t=qo7fa3NkWyf_Qe-hRb9sUw&s=19

twitter.com/ripx4nutmeg/status/1611682182405160961?t=Kv1nsuxwEr3WlpagKYi7jA&s=19

So which is it? Are trans women inherently more dangerous than men that don't identify as trans, or are men pretending to me trans in order to offend?

The answer doesn't actually matter. The same solution fixes both issues.

Could you provide a link to that data?

The figures I’ve seen quoted for genital surgery specifically have always been much lower (between 5-10%). However there are a number of TW who retain their penis, have breast augmentation surgery and claim to have undergone “gender affirming surgery”. If the data you saw refers to the latter in general terms rather than being specific about penectomies, then I’d suspect that would account for the disparity.

The figures I’ve seen quoted for genital surgery specifically have always been much lower (between 5-10%). However there are a number of TW who retain their penis, have breast augmentation surgery and claim to have undergone “gender affirming surgery”. If the data you saw refers to the latter in general terms rather than being specific about penectomies, then I’d suspect that would account for the disparity.

This.

The problem is, there are much much fewer women in prison overall than men. So by the same logic or using the same "risk assessment" if I hypothesised that merging the male/female estates would massively reduce male on male sexual violence (because females would be easier to target. This might not be true but I can see it as a hypothesis) then it would make sense to do so because the numbers of people being assaulted overall would reduce. But hey, if we care about all sexual violence not just sexual violence against women (as you bigotted t*s do) then its the morally correct thing to do

In light of the need to keep men out of women’s prisons - however they identify, and regardless of whether they have a Gender Recognition Certificate and a new birth certificate stating they are female -
anyone who has not done so already
might like to sign and share this petition to update the Equality Act to make clear that sex means biological sex.
⬇️💚🤍💜
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/623243

A similar analysis for the sex offenders register would be useful to give slightly more complete data than the 'currently in prison' snapshot - although not everyone on the register stays there permanently, so still not a full data set. But I can't find a breakdown of that number by either sex or gender.

While I was looking, I did find some figures (2013, so not up to date - offences recorded have tripled since then) showing that around 1/3 of sex offences recorded resulted in a charge, and about 2/3 of charges resulted in a conviction.

If we assume (generously) that every conviction gets a custodial sentence, then only about 20% of people who commit a sex offence are jailed for it.

So that 1 in 585 would be closer to 1 in 120 if every recorded offence resulted in a prison sentence. (And that's still ignoring offences committed but not reported/recorded.)

Can someone check my maths? Because that's a horrifying proportion, if I'm right.

I'd have volunteered to check your maths if I hadn't completed a 'Ten maths questions every parent should be able to do' quiz in a newspaper recently and ended up scoring five out of ten. Two of those wrong questions were because the question had been ambiguously worded (that's my argument and I'm sticking to it) but I'm probably not the person you need.

But if you're right and we're talking 1 in 120, that's explosive.

Holy shit.

I don't know how to do maths, so I've no idea if 1 in 120 is a reasonable conclusion. I did follow your reasoning, though and if you're right, that's a shocking figure. I mean, 1 in 585 is bad enough.

I think we ought to keep the "five times more likely than other men to commit a sexual offence" in mind.

If it's 1 in 120 what does that do to the figure? Somewhere between 5 and ?? times more likely.

You'd have to do the same corrections on the other men figures, so, um... give me a mo.

If 1 in every 2500 men is in prison for a sexual offence, and the in-prison figure is 20% of the 'should be in prison' figure, then it's 1 in 500.

So the '5 times as likely' proportion holds.

Mightn’t the base number of transgender people be larger than recorded on the statistics? This could have happen if the people responding wrote their ‘sex’ as the one they believed it to be. If so the prison statistics might be different.

I am asking because formerly wasn’t the proportion of transgender people reckoned as being about 1%?

So does this mean that the transwomen in male prisons constitute more of a threat to the other men, rather than the other way round?

And yes, we know that paraphilias cluster. So a cross dressing fetishist is like to have more.

Evidence for that, Datun? I'm only asking so I can use it myself, not questioning your veracity.

I’m not sure the 1 in 120 maths does stack up as it assumes that each offence will be carried out by a separate individual. If you have any individuals carrying out more than one offence, it doesn’t work and I’m not sure there is enough info to work out the correct calculation? (although the original 1 in 585 is bad enough!)

If you want hard analysis and study results, you'll need to google it, because a lot of these studies run to dozens of pages and you'll need to read them to get the exact wording you want if you want more than this kind of overview.

The most common paraphilic disorders are

Exhibitionistic disorder
Pedophilic disorder
Transvestic disorder
Voyeuristic disorder
Others include sexual masochism disorder
and sexual sadism disorder.

Most people with paraphilias are men, and many have more than one type of paraphilia. Some of them also have a severe personality disorder, such as antisocial personality disorder or narcissistic personality disorder.

www.msdmanuals.com/en-gb/home/mental-health-disorders/paraphilias-and-paraphilic-disorders/overview-of-paraphilias-and-paraphilic-disorders#:~:text=Sexual%20sadism%20disorder%20is%20sexual,such%20as%20antisocial%20personality%20disorder

I am asking because formerly wasn’t the proportion of transgender people reckoned as being about 1%?

That was Stonewall's estimate - about 600,000 people in the UK. The government's estimate was 200,000-500,000, which was pretty close to the actual number.

The most common paraphilic disorders are
Exhibitionistic disorder
Pedophilic disorder
Transvestic disorder
Voyeuristic disorder
Others include sexual masochism disorder
and sexual sadism disorder.

It’s telling re how much society has become pornified over the last twenty years that most of these have now been turned into “kink” and criticising them or finding them problematic is now considered prudish, unfashionable and “pearl clutching” at best; and actively “kink-shaming” and discriminatory at worst. With young teenagers now routinely watching porn featuring BDSM, choking, slapping, public sex, “rough sex”, dogging, sissy porn and so on being completely normalised. And we see the MAP normalisation on its way, too.

So much of all of this is completely down to the social normalisation of what was previously thought of as fetish sex, and the widespread perception amongst men and young people that this is not just normal but desirable.

Assault rates have been higher in female establishments than in male establishments since the 12 months to June 2018, with the difference extending each year, after previously being higher in male establishments

Also assaults in female prisons increased by 30% in twelve months. In male prisons they increased by 10% over the same time period. Gee. I wonder what possible explanation there could be for this. It almost seems like a very violent and dangerous population has recently been introduced into women’s prisons which don’t have the right procedures and protections in place to keep other prisoners safe from them.

The OP statistics make me fucking furious. It has been excruciatingly obvious for a long time that TW are not only more dangerous than women, but more dangerous than other men. Until now TRAs have done a good job fucking up the data so that their supporters can do their usual ostrich thing.

But even now that there is solid data it’s still deny, deny, deflect, DARVO, while women are getting hurt the whole time they keep dragging this horror show out. Just fuck these utter shitheads, all the people pushing for vulnerable women to have no protection from dangerous men. I wish them all a hefty dose of karma.

And to the women putting their reputation, careers and safety on the line fighting against it all, thank you. You’re heroes.

Amen!

So does this mean that the transwomen in male prisons constitute more of a threat to the other men, rather than the other way round?

Probably not, since such a huge percentage are sex offenders. Sex offenders are known more for being at risk from other male prisoners than vice versa. Hey, maybe they should just stick all the sex offenders into women’s prisons, what a fantastic solution to that problem.

Apart, possibly, from 'transvestic disorder', these all require the involvement of participants whose consent has not been given (or has been given under duress, or who cannot consent to the activity).

If somebody gets a sexual thrill out of wearing clothes typically worn by the other sex, why should that be a paraphilia? If they do so in a way that involves others who have not consented to be part of the crossdresser's fantasy, then it crosses into exhibitionistic disorder.

Didn't Grayson Perry say that one of the reasons he chooses to wear dresses with big skirts is so that his hard-on is hidden?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/child-sex-offenders-estimate-nca-b1853513.html

i tried to find an estimate for how many sex offenders are not currently incarcerated. This says 850,000 and that’s just pedophiles. I’m on my phone so I can’t keep all the tabs open to do the relevant maths. But, well. A population that’s 5x more likely to commit sex offences than the average male constitutes a very dangerous group of people.

If it’s estimated (as in the link in my comment above) that there are 850,000 pedophilic sex offenders in the UK it seems safe to assume there are over a million men who are sex offenders. That’s approximately 3% of the male population. If TW are 5x more likely to be sex offenders than other men we’re looking at 15%, which is the same estimate you arrived at via a completely different route.

so yeah… I’d believe it too.

Something becomes a paraphilia when it becomes an actual problem in the persons life, an obsession, and it starts to affect others. Like coercing his wife to have sex with him while he dressed as a woman.

So not every one who cross-dresses occasionally has transvestic disorder. It's the same mistake people make with personality disorders. Not everyone who is very narcissistic has narcissist personality disorder. There is actually a huge difference between the two.