The Composition and Demographics of the Growing Trans Population

[Justhadathought]

It seems that every week ( even as reported in just my local tabloid newspaper) the 'transitioning' population increases, and the Transgender Umbrella ( as determined by Stonewall) provides shelter for a very wide range of demographic of people.

Yet it seems to me ( would be interesting to see statistics) that apart from young women ( mainly lesbians) transitioning to male...the largest and most rapidly accelerating group is that of older 'cross dressing' males. Most often heterosexual or married, and quite often having been in, or performed, an archetypal macho or traditionally masculine role or occupation ( been in the military etc).

This is not only as evidenced by the growing number of reports in my local newspaper, but from my own observations on the street and around town: www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/transgender-woman-agreed-cannabis-plot-17604909

I see there being three main groups under the trans umbrella:

1. People with dysphoria severe enough for them to feel that medical intervention is essential for them to gain some comfort in their lives.
2. Young people with confused identities, many wondering whether they're homosexual, many of whom will establish more secure identities if left to wait and see.
3. The cross-dressing group. Male, many of whom are over 30 at least.

If 0.5% of the UK population is trans, that's roughly 300,000. Looking at group 1), the total number of GRCs issued is around 5000. Although there will be people with gender dysphoria who will not seek a GRC for whatever reason, even if the 5000 is doubled or trebled to account for this, this would mean that the 300,000 is largely groups 2) and 3). I'm not sure how these groups will fall but I suspect 2) will be larger than 3), but 3) will still be a significant part of the 300,000.

In the older males category, I wonder how important the link is of PTSD (via the military, etc) and a very understandable desire to disassociate with male-associated trauma into a softer female world. It's a massive disservice to the actual trans community that the psychological aspects are not being discussed as widely as the glitter rainbows sales pitch.

I really struggle to see what these groups have in common with each other. An outside observer who was allowed to have such thoughts might think that some of the groups are being used as shields by the group with the most power.

^There’s a critical difference between autogynephilia and most other sexual orientations: Most other orientations aren’t erotically disrupted simply by being labeled. When you call a typical gay man homosexual, you’re not disturbing his sexual hopes and desires. By contrast, autogynephilia is perhaps best understood as a love that would really rather we didn’t speak its name. The ultimate eroticism of autogynephilia lies in the idea of really becoming or being a woman, not in being a natal male who desires to be a woman ( Ray Blanchard): quillette.com/2019/11/06/what-is-autogynephilia-an-interview-with-dr-ray-blanchard/

An outside observer who was allowed to have such thoughts might think that some of the groups are being used as shields by the group with the most power

Yes, that is increasingly my suspicion. Some very vulnerable people out there...especially children and young adults.....and then also some much older people who know how to manipulate and pull strings.

That's am interesting observation rick and I don't disagree.

I would add though that ptsd is thought to be massively under-diagnosed. For example many middle aged women who have been physically or sexually abused in the past will be sufferers. Yet it is striking how few middle aged women believe they can escape the "weakness" of being a woman by transitioning to a male identity.

"At present, many heterosexual MTFs—in their own view, lesbian trans women—police online forums ceaselessly for any mention of autogynephilia If a newcomer posts that he thinks that autogynephilia describes his own experience, they will quickly let him know that this is wrongthink and that autogynephilia does not exist. It is therefore hard to get any sense of how many autogynephilic gender dysphorics privately think that autogynephilia describes their own experience because stating that online will produce scorn and other negative reactions"

For example many middle aged women who have been physically or sexually abused in the past will be sufferers

Women and girls will most often self harm. Maybe MTF suffering from PTSD see transitioning to female as an act of self abnegation?

I very much doubt that the prevalence of autogynephilia per se, or the prevalence of autogynephilic gender dysphoria, has increased. I think that what has changed is the proportion of autogynephilic trans who have “come out” to their families, friends, and employers, not the total number of autogynephilic trans Forty years ago, an autogynephile’s decision to transition to the female role often had negative consequences in the personal and employment spheres. Now that decision is as likely to get them praised for courage as it is to get them criticised for selfishness and irresponsibility ( Ray Blanchard)

When I looked at the relative numbers of autogynephilic and androphilic gender-dysphoric males back in 1987, the autogynephilic cases were already a majority, approaching 60 percent. The proportion had reached 75 percent by 2010, and it might be even higher now ( Ray Blanchard)

Blanchard certainly seems to suggest that by far the largest group of gender dysphoric males is the AGP group - and growing. That certainly accords with my observations.

Women and girls will most often self harm. Maybe MTF suffering from PTSD see transitioning to female as an act of self abnegation?

Yes. And actually that's reminded me of the other striking imbalance - that of the young females having mastectomies etc vs the majority of intact males. But maybe the view is that "becoming female" is self harm in itself because female is thought of as less than by society?

These are the stats from GIDs (Gender Identity Development Service) on the numbers of children transitioning by sex and age:

gids.nhs.uk/number-referrals

Those numbers are quite revealing. Considering that there are somewhere in the region of 12.5 million under 18's in the UK it suggests that even with the recent increases in referrals (which is interesting) that somewhere around 99.98% of children are not being referred to GIDS after presentations of gender dysphoria. That seems to tie in with me very rarely encountering a transgender person and never having encountered a transgender child.

That seems to tie in with me very rarely encountering a transgender person and never having encountered a transgender child

I guess how often you meet and encounter trans adults and children will very much depend on your location and on your profession.

I frequently encounter what would now be classed as 'trans' adults. I live in a large city, though. I also used to be a teacher, and even just 10 years ago 'being trans' just wasn't 'a thing' of in any of the schools I taught at ( secondary 11-18, across a wide range of school type and diverse location); and yet now I hear that it is fairly common to have numerous trans pupils in any one school.

Whether, or not ,these people ever to make it as far as GIDs is another matter.

I'm not sure I'd agree with it being common in any section of society apart from a GIC or Charing Cross, Parkside or Brighton Nuffield hospital on particlar 7 day stretches. I work in a profession where I scome into Contact with a reasonable number of vulnerable adults and children but, I would really struggle to describe being trans amongst that population as being common. For balance though, I would go as far to say that the often quoted incidence of 0.3% is a bit of an under estimate. I think there are plenty gender non conforming children and adults who can probably muddy the waters but, as far as I can see, the only reliable figures to date are the number of children and adults being referred. As it stands the ball park figures seem to suggest around just short of 9000 children in the last five financial years. Adults are a more difficult proposition but, if you take a GIC waiting list of approximately 13000 (which is likely around 2-3 years of referrals) and assume roughly 6500 GP referrals per year multiplied by an average 75 year life span and compare it against around 700,000 live births per year in the UK you could assume (off the back of a smokes packet) that around 0.9% of the adult population present with some form of gender dysphoria to a medical professional. That is likely quite an increase over time from 10, 20 and 30 et.al years ago.

I think a general slow increase in societal acceptance of transsexual people and an increase in accessible information to the individual, especially with regards to the Internet has driven this but, that is only a personal opinion. Even so, all that said it would suggest around 99.1% and possibly higher of the U.K. population don't have an internal struggle between their actual sex and how the see their gender.

If it matters I live and work in a city wwith a population of approximately 8 million and my encounters with tans people are still virtually non existent. If I were to apply a test to see if the change in frequency between 2010 and 2020 I am going to push the boat out and suggest the numbers would not reveal a statistical significance. H

Happy to hear your thoughts though.

There has been an increase that so large and rapid its triggered an inquiry.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/16/minister-orders-inquiry-4000-per-cent-rise-children-wanting/

Yes, a 4000% increase in something that requires medical treatment should always be a cause for concern, especially when there doesn't seem to be a clear reason for the increase.

I too live in a city with a population of 8 million and see trans people frequently, once or twice a month at least - usually on our transport system, where I’m passing thousands of people a week. I did not see nearly so many trans people ten years ago. Members of my family have many trans friends, particularly those under 25.

I think we probably live in a similar if not the same city. Now, I can only deal with figures that are readily available so, I'll take a mixture of TFL stats (available on line) and your personal experience. Admittedly the sum I arrive at will not be accurate but, I suspect if the reasonable person test were applied I'd be on the right side.

So her we go, TFL says the support about 5 million journeys per day by tube. You personally see one or two trans people per week. If every passenger had the same experience we are now talking about an awful lot of trans people or people perceived to be trans using the tube at any given time or the trans people you see are very visible. Either is possible.

Personally, I feel anecdote is no substitute for numbers and having trans friends isn't statistical support for numbers. I have trans friends too but in reality they are by no means common amongst the 8 million that I live.

If you've evidence of a number equal to what would seemingly be disproportionate amounts of trans people using TFL, National Express West Miidlands, First Scotrail , Stagecoach Manchester or Arrival Merseyside/Northen rail and whatever the main thing is in Leeds etc... I'm really excited to look at the numbers involved and form an opinion.

Alternatively, if we are going to base the numbers on an anecdotal report influenced by a suspicion/mistrust of trans people I'm not so sure we will get too far.

4 to 6% of the adult male population have a transvestic fetish. At the lower end of the estimate, that's about a million men across the UK. They used to be excluded from trans groups, but as they now fall under the trans umbrella, the much larger prevalence of crossdressing rather than that of transsexualism of either form (HSTS or AGP) may explain some of the increase.

Further to that, I'm going to push the boat out and make a huge assumption and please forgive me if I'm wrong. We're in a city of 8 million and I myself, make on average 12 tube journeys per week. I can probably expect to visually encounter (not necessarily take notice of) around perhaps several thousand people per journey. I personally can't say other than the odd occasion that I 'see and notice' a trans person. Those that I do see normally look as they are doing their level best to blend into the background. My personal experience and the statistics that I can get my hands on do suggest a noticeable recent increase in frequency. However, when I take into consideration the influence of the Internet on a group of people who may have chosen to remain in a closet I'm not feeling shocked at the statistics available.

I do worry that there are websites dedicated to stopping treatment, discouraging acceptance and encouraging general negativity for a minute number of vulnerable children. That's my worry though and I do tend to find that away from social media it's reasonably common and certainly not a view to be ashamed of.

My mind is open and I'm always willing to have it changed. Thank you for engaging.

One trans person I discussed this with and who's been involved in the trans community for several decades called what is happening now "the crossdressers' revenge" at being excluded from trans spaces for all this time. It could maybe explain the rhetoric that sees so many of the more extreme trans rights activists calling transsexuals "truscum" and declaring that you don't need to have gender dysphoria to be trans.

Charley,

What it is to be trans is in reality a question for the psychiatrists and medical doctors who make a diagnosis. There's lots of rhetoric and misinformation from both sides of the debate and I suspect ultimately people from both sides who occupy the centre ground will be influential in decision making.

Ultimately, my daily experience suggests that this particular debate hasn't really captured the thoughts of the the nation. Let's be honest, groups such as Transgender Trend seem in my opinion to be pushing against the tide. There's around 90,000 children in the UK currently in care and being gender dysphoric doesn't appear to be a significant contributor. Coupled with a distribution of stickers that can only be described as hateful towards a tiny minority I personally don't think they've covered themselves in glory.

Perhaps the lack of interest is a result of Brexit being everywhere or perhaps as a nation we've just begrudgingly become more accepting of difference.

Charley,

You can make comments about there being 4-6% of males having a fetish. I suspect I could reasonably confidently state more than 10% of me between 16 and 25 would be turned on by two girls kissing.

However, this in my opinion is anecdote and nothing more. It does admittedly pass for fact in certain forums and often without question. However, what remains is that the only reliable statistical information we have is that there were just short of 9000 under 18's referred to GIDS in 5 years and there are around 13000 adults waiting to see a GIC. Given that we have a population of around 65million I am confident in saying that there has been a rise in the incidence of being or seeking treatment for being transsexual in the UK but, the numbers involved are still very small.

@mayomaynot

I'm sorry I didn't answer earlier I will always try to reply.

I appreciate your headline figure of a 4000% increase. This really ones make it sound as if our children are in danger of being captured and turned in their places of education.

I'm pretty confident in saying, firstly, it's very unlikely that you can force or convince someone that they are are trans. Let's be honest, society as a whole isn't really that accepting and most who come out as trans do so on the knowledge that they are likely to lose family and friends based on nothing more than a medical diagnosis and external presentation.

Anyway, I digress so let us hit the stats. In five financial years we've gone from 0.005 to 0.02% of under 18's in the UK seeking help for gender dysphoria.

In comparison with many childhood presentations this is very low. What we are saying is, even with the increase is that 99.98% of children don't ever present to a medical professional complaining of the symptoms of gender dysphoria.

In comparison, there are around 90,000 children in care in the UK due to neglect and other issues. If Stepanie Davis-Arai and Debbie Hayton et.al have convinced you that 'the children are being transed ' at an alarmingly increasing rate due to some trans cabal I think you've been misled.

There is clearly an increase and the numbers amongst young girls are especially interesting but, the numbers are still very small. Even then it is widely reported in GC circles that 80% of those referred do not receive a diagnosis of gender dysphoria leaving the number that go on to treatment in the hundreds.

The majority of people presenting at A and E with chest pain haven't suffered a heart attack. Would you advocate on that basis to deny the ones that have had a heart attack treatment? Not the best comparison I know but, it's worthy of thought.