The Composition and Demographics of the Growing Trans Population

[Justhadathought]

It seems that every week ( even as reported in just my local tabloid newspaper) the 'transitioning' population increases, and the Transgender Umbrella ( as determined by Stonewall) provides shelter for a very wide range of demographic of people.

Yet it seems to me ( would be interesting to see statistics) that apart from young women ( mainly lesbians) transitioning to male...the largest and most rapidly accelerating group is that of older 'cross dressing' males. Most often heterosexual or married, and quite often having been in, or performed, an archetypal macho or traditionally masculine role or occupation ( been in the military etc).

This is not only as evidenced by the growing number of reports in my local newspaper, but from my own observations on the street and around town: www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/transgender-woman-agreed-cannabis-plot-17604909

I have no desire to make anyone persist. I have a desire that a small number of children for who transition would be helpful to get the treatment and support they deserve.

Do you have a crystal ball? When presented with 5 children, all with the same symptoms of gender dysphoria, how do you know which is the one whose dysphoria will persist after puberty?

Treating all of them with puberty blockers is doing harm to the four who would desist after puberty, and it's by no means certain that it is not doing harm to the one who might persist.

Is that some form of being cruel to be kind?

Of course I don't have a crystal ball however I suspect in the majority of cases as with any other condition that the clinicians are pretty good at getting it right. The low numbers of those referred that end up on blockers is testament to that.

I do believe still however, that your 80 percent refers to the incidence of desistence amongst those referred not diagnosed. As we know a referral to a specialist is not a diagnosis. If 80 percent of diagnoses were incorrect there is simply no way that a clinician or group of clinicians with such an error rate would be allowed to continue to practice. I do have a sneaking feeling though that we could go around in circles for a long time without convincing the other that our point of view is valid.

Stats do you have up to date figures for referrals for those going onto puberty blockers? I’ve only seen the under 15s through 2015 and it’s a high proportion (in some years all) going from referral to blockers.

Where I am, in the US, in several states expert clinician diagnosis of gender dysphoria is no longer required in order to obtain medical or surgical transition, not even for minors.

“On demand” is now how transition care is delivered.

Elective double mastectomy is now available on demand to girls 15 and older in a number of states, without parental approval — though the surgeons bill the parents’ insurance, where there is insurance, otherwise the state pays via Medicaid.

Hormones are available at walk-in clinics in most states on a same-day basis, without parental approval.

This is what activists pushed for, based on the insistence that the person in question interprets their interior state better than anyone else (not asserted wrt any other MH issue) along with the insistence that gender identity issues aren’t in fact a MH issue, and therefore the only pathway is affirmation only of self-diagnosis.

This is exactly what activists are demanding for the U.K.

Rogdmum

The latest figures I have seen are from 2017.

In the previous three financial years of 3958 referrals approximately 800 children were prescribed blockers (source - info request by the Daily Hate) if the children on blockers had all been referred in that last 3 years (which is not made clear) it would suggest that the incidence of diagnosis and puberty blocker prescriptions was about 20% of those initially referred. That would seem to support the 80% desistence rate however, that is an opinion only but it would make sense. I think a FOI request for figures may be successful as long as no personal information had to be disclosed to get the urgent rates.

Current rates not urgent.

I should add that, where there is parental approval, surgeons are performing elective double mastectomies on girls as young as 12.

The activist response to the question, What if the patient or diagnosis was wrong, and irreversible treatment was performed upon a child, has been that that should be of no issue because there is nothing wrong with living as a trans person.

But I dont understand why living in the wrong body is so horrible for one set of patients, and for another set ending up with having to live in a wrong body is supposed to be just something to learn to cope with.

Things are quite different in the UK. A free at the point of contact service could never allow treatments of such a nature based on self diagnosis to someone so young. I've got to be honest and say if I didn't have a lot of money I wouldn't go near the US healthcare system with a barge poll.

I can see though that stories from the US would be likely to cause concern in the UK or even be used to push a narrative that this is what happens here.

I'm sure there are some hardcore activists who would advocate for that but luckily, we are in a position where activists of both sides of the debate although very loud do not tend to drive policy.

stats I might do a FOI request just out of curiosity.
Here’s the link for the 2011-2015 figures:

tavistockandportman.nhs.uk/documents/408/gids-service-statistics.pdf

It only documents blockers numbers for the under 15s so I’m unsure whether age comes into effect- ie. by 15-17 you are pretty much through puberty so what is the likelihood that they would prescribe blockers at that point when they can give cross-sex hormones from 16? The largest numbers of referrals come from 14+. Also, how do the waiting times fit in, ie are the numbers for referrals by age the age at referral or age when seen?

Sorry, the table shows age at point of referral, but is there a gap then re age for prescribing blockers or is it the same group carried through on the chart, if that makes sense.

It didn't make any assumptions that the 2% of 5990 would be the same if all 85000 male prisoners returned a form.

headdesk that's why they did the damn survey. This is what statistics IS, you're finding out about a population by examining a sample of that population... THE ALMIGHTY CHEEK OF YOU CALLING YOURSELF STATSNERD.

yes you can often argue that the sample is unrepresentative and I can even think of some good arguments it might be true in this case, but you made no such argument, I'm reduced to arguing your case for you because I feel too mean otherwise! Your complaint is that they didn't survey all 85000 prisoners! And you're calling yourself statsnerd.

Not particularly to my credit, I have involved myself in some truly ridiculous arguments online with TRAs who vastly overestimate themselves but I swear, you take the

Of course I don't have a crystal ball however I suspect in the majority of cases as with any other condition that the clinicians are pretty good at getting it right.

How? When this is what the NHS says about gender dysphoria:

There are no physical symptoms of gender dysphoria, but people with the condition may experience and display a range of feelings and behaviours.

In many cases, a person with gender dysphoria begins to feel a mismatch between their biological sex and gender identity during early childhood. For others, this may not happen until adulthood.

www.nhs.uk/conditions/gender-dysphoria/symptoms/

It's worth reading the whole page to see how woolly the diagnostic criteria are. There is no objective test. The mass resignations from GIDS and the testimony of people like Marcus Evans show that in many cases, the professionals are not getting it right.

In the previous three financial years of 3958 referrals approximately 800 children were prescribed blockers (source - info request by the Daily Hate) if the children on blockers had all been referred in that last 3 years (which is not made clear) it would suggest that the incidence of diagnosis and puberty blocker prescriptions was about 20% of those initially referred.

What are the ages of those children? If that 3958 includes children of all ages, some of them will not yet have started puberty so will be too young for the medication. Also, GIDS exclude children aged 16+ (or 15+, I can't remember) from their FOI releases about puberty blockers, but might include them in the number of referrals.

allmywhat

Im glad you're so pleasant. I understand population sampling but that leads only to a hypothesis not a definitive figure. That's not my fault it's just how it is. Now the extrapolation may be correct but we have no way of asserting that with a huge degree of confidence. If that name has annoyed you then I feel for you really.

I'm not a TRA, I don't involve myself in any activism. I happen to support some views of either side of the debate. Perhaps that is fence sitting but I'm not overly comfortable with either side and certainly don't fit in neatly to either side.

However, if you can't resist resorting to underhand comments then I'm afraid I've no wish to engage you any further which I am sure will please us both. A forum of debate and question is exactly that, if I wanted to be spoken to as if I were a fool I'd spend my days on Kiwi farms, Mewe or Gab. Thank you again for the earlier link it was an interesting read but that's all I have to say to you. Goodnight.

I have a desire that a small number of children for who transition would be helpful to get the treatment and support they deserve

Children ( apart from the fetishistic, exploratory, cross dressing ones I mentioned earlier on when talking about transvestitism and Grayson Perry) cannot possibly be in a position to know they are 'trans'.

Children, by nature, are in a permanent state of identity formation...Added to this they will not have experienced any mature sexual feelings until much older; let alone any emotional maturity.

Many gay men and women report having felt dysphoric in childhood - many severely so ( as do many of us, to some extent, regardless of later sexual orientation)...but once a certain level of maturity was reached these feelings faded.

I honestly believe that transitioning children, especially medically, is a form of child abuse.

Old crone

The figures include all children referred. By a long way most are referred during the early to mid teens with 13-15 being the highest. There are some under 10's but the numbers are very small. The GIDS website does provide a breakdown by age so that information is available. I'd be surprised if they started blockers at 16 but I don't know that for sure it's just that by 16 for many who are persistent in their dysphoria the damage is done and is likely to rely on surgery later in life to sort it out. I suppose a detailed FOI request would put the matter (figures wise) to bed. I don't know what information they'll publish but, if it's not personal I can't see a reasonable reason to decline it.

Justathought

Being transsexual generally doesn't revolve around any sexual feelings. I personally had feelings that I wanted things to be different long before I developed sexual desires. That my sexual desires were related to men may or may not be related to my being transsexual however, as there appears to be a spectrum of sexualities across transgender people as there are in those who aren't I would imagine it doesn't.

Of course when I was five or six I did not think that I was transsexual. I just knew that my feeling was a discomfort with my anatomy and a deep seated desire to wake up and be a girl.

I do appreciate that for most the dysphoria feelings go or never even appear but for the small cohort for whom they remain in a persistent and distressing fashion I support them getting help. I know that isn't an opinion universally held but, it is by no means a lone voice.

What numbers would those be that suggest it isn't a satisfying treatment.

This is another case where you would be best off to do your own research. Google is your friend. Look at outcomes for sex reassignment, or even just "does sex reassignment work". You should come up with lots of articles that will give you good links to the research and explain it better than I can do here.

But the long and short is that the research does not support that the outcomes are better than for people who do not transition, it does suggest that underlying problems aren't addressed, and it certainly doesn't point to it being a treatment path that is clearly a good one when weighed against the negatives, which are significant.

I'm not sure about all these negatives. I and I'm guessing many others have one medication. It's a relatively low dose of estrogen to reduce the risk of things like osteoporosis. I function like any other adult which I certainly didn't before I fact I barely functioned at all at times and I visit the Gp to have my bloods done infrequently. As such I wouldn't class myself as a life long patient anymore than I would anyone else requiring a common medication.

Now, I only know around only 10 people in the same position as me in person. All report being satisfied and having a better quality of life than before. Yes there are difficulties post surgery and some things to get used to and be careful of but in the main many of us go on to lead standard and fulfilling lives. Maybe we all just got lucky but, I'm not convinced that is a realistic assertion.

However, if you are willing to disregard our lived experience then you are denying yourself some valuable information that could help you to understand us and why we are willing to undergo surgical procedures to make our lives ultimately more comfortable. But, that's your loss, it's a shame.

it's just that by 16 for many who are persistent in their dysphoria the damage is done and is likely to rely on surgery later in life to sort it out

It's not just 'damage' that's done in that time though - as I understand it there's also the maturing of the brain through puberty that would have happened and that is a loss in itself if it doesn't happen.

Being transsexual generally doesn't revolve around any sexual feelings. I personally had feelings that I wanted things to be different long before I developed sexual desires.

I may be wrong but I took what justathought was saying to mean that a significant relevant part of maturing and forming one's identity can be related to sexual feelings arriving, and making decisions before that has happened isn't necessarily a good thing.

Isn't there a risk that decisions might be expected from a young teen on medical treatment that will make sex difficult, before that teenager has grown old enough to even realise what it is that they will be missing out on?

It's clearly not an easy thing to deal with but it seems to me that political theorising from activists shouldn't have any place in decisions about children's medical treatment. By that I mean things like them calling intensive psychological help to reduce dysphoria conversion therapy and accusing people who do it of transphobia.

I do feel very strongly for anyone with crippling dysphoria and I wish there were simple ways to deal with it. Of all the possible treatments, though, medical transition seems like the one it's rational to keep as an absolute last resort, because of the risk of it actually harming a greater percentage of gender dysphoric people (those who will end up being helped by waiting for puberty to finish) than it helps.

Being transsexual generally doesn't revolve around any sexual feelings.

But do you think it's appropriate to remove all potential for sexual feelings from children, before they even understand what that means?

I do appreciate that for most the dysphoria feelings go or never even appear but for the small cohort for whom they remain in a persistent and distressing fashion I support them getting help.

But that help should be purely psychological help until they are adults.

by 16 for many who are persistent in their dysphoria the damage is done and is likely to rely on surgery later in life to sort it out.

Once again you're posting bizarre statements. What do you mean by surgery to sort it out? Do you think that children who go on puberty blockers actually change sex? If men are going to have genital surgery to make their genitalia resemble that of a woman, it works better on a mature adult penis than a child size one. This is well known from the experiences of two people whose stories have been made public and who have been through this process in their late teens following puberty blockers as young teenagers.

And there is no benefit to blocking puberty in girls, because female hormones don't have the same irreversible effects which will make transition to look like the opposite sex more difficult. They'll still get the osteoporosis and loss of IQ and all the other negative effects though.

stats from reading your posts it sounds as though you are MtF (TS)? If so I’d argue your experience is probably very different from the new cohort of teen girls who are being referred to the Tavi. Many of these girls are autistic and can be obsessional over ideas and don’t feel as though they fit in as girls. Others have suffered trauma or have other co-morbidities. It’s not necessarily that they feel they are boys, more that being seen as a boy feels like a better option for them and this is reinforced by social media and then validated by trusted adults around them (school, parents etc). All of this can have a very strong psychological effect on a teen girl who is just trying to fit in.

We need to understand far more about why there has been this surge (and there will be an awful lot more out there who do not get referred to the Tavi), taking a big step back until we do know.