" The men's category should be the inclusive one. If, as you think Mary intersex women are the same as men they will be able to compete against them fairly. But if, as they think, they cannot then they and the IFAA will be back to square one."
That's not a given. For example, we know that Laurel Hubbard, Tiffany Abreu, and many others, were not competitive against men.
Mediocre men can beat elite women. That's an outcome of male biology.
Being Chris Froome or whomever requires elite male biology. I don't know quite what the numbers are, but you have to have lung capacity etc. that is not 'everyday'.
It is not clear what proportion of the average men on the street could replicate Rachel McKinnon's victories in track sprint cycling, with appropriate training, but I suspect it is rather high.
Concluding that someone with 5ARD belongs in the 'male' category does not being to imply that any person with 5ARD will ever be capable of beating the best men. Caster Semenya's best time is at least 10s slower than the best contemporary men.
Obviously the reclassification of an individual from 'elite woman' to 'mediocre man' would be a shock, but mediocre men are hardly unusual - 99.99% of men lack the biology to win the 800m.
I made the point earlier, but if you need to have a 1 in 10,000 physique to be an elite athlete, then it would be hard to prove whether people with a condition like 5ARD are ever capable of competing against men, but I don't think it's that important to do so.
It's better to just say 'these people have testes, testosterone, sperm, etc., so they do not belong in female sport'. Otherwise what basis do you have for excluding anyone from female sport?
Fairness/advantage is not really the point, the idea is that everyone competing has the same basic characteristics, not that everyone should be equal. There was a (male) dwarf weightlifter who did very well, and it is observed that he had less far to lift the weight. That's fine, because he still fit into the category of 'less than 56kg bodyweight', or whatever it was.
Saying 'X should be able to compete because X has no advantage from their testes & testosterone' is not the point at all. Rather, it's that if you are running a dog show, then nobody should enter a cat.
And in this case if you have testes, sperm, etc., then that should override anything more abstract like gender identity, or even 'the appearance of your genitals', and exclude you from the 'female' category.