Icelandic eruption and the weather

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Thought it might be interesting to start a thread on this.
eruption in iceland

It seems to be a fissure eruption and after some reading this afternoon I think it is unlikely at the moment to be putting up large quantities of ash into the atmosphere, this sort of eruption does not seem to be the explosive sort. If it starts to, then we could see some particularly spectacular sunsets.

Worries are though that it might trigger Katla volcano which could be potentially pretty devestating, not only to Iceland but also could affect weather on a global scale. Large eruptions have historically caused global cooling and influenced weather patterns.

hopefully fears end up being unfounded

Head in sand emotion needed here.

Off to Vegas in 2.5 week's time for my sister's wedding. We have to get there!!!

OYBBK - I was quite surprised about them lessening restrictions. What happens if the wind changes and you're flying quite close? (I realise that they can reroute planes on the hoove (as it were) but it does seem a bit risky.)

It does, especially when you look at this dispersion model where you can see that often the boundaries between dense ash and less dense ash are quite hard to define and very fluid.

Good luck Hula!

At the moment I haen't see any Vegas flights cancelled - but lots delayed for landing. If they are gooing round Iceland, looks like it may add on a few hours to the journey. The flight is already massive; another 3-4 hours - argh!!! It's a massive flight for just a week as it is. Ho hum.

Good luck, Hula. I hope you make it without too much delay.

Thanks

Have to get there; don;t think my sister could deal with a cancelled wedding and DD would be devasted as she is bridesmaid.

great eruptions blog

better link to blog

I'm not sure if I'm utterly honest. We have a high pressure building over us but not over Iceland, I don't know if the ash will skirt the outside of the high pressure or not.
Volcano news, not so good, still active, so at the moment it is down to the upper wind direction.

oh dear latest ash dispersion model

take my eye off the ball for 2 days and....

... well will be interesting to see how it corresponds with official ashcast (note the different timescales on them)

Monday looks bad for the UK on the ash dispersion model, model dosen't it.

She was a bit more seismically active overnight again.

The ash is still belching out at the moment too, looking on web cam.

It does look bad for Monday.
silly volcano!

There's some great footage here of the eruption from earlier this week (from Icelandic TV. Link pinched from pprune!)

BBC News online are running a story just now about the likelihood of airspace closures Sunday-Tuesday, obviously no specifics yet.

Petunia, that footage is fab!

Webcam pictures really are looking pretty good at the moment, aren't they? (Don't think I've seen the top of the volcano yet; it's always been shrouded in cloud!)
As OYBBK said a few days ago, it's "being grumpy!"

And I bet Ryanair aren't happy about this!

Ecellent footage Petunia.

Well prepared for WW. Fraid I've not got the foggiest about thursday, except that once the high establishes itself it is likely to last for a bit. click on 500 hPabodendruck to show one models interpretation of where the highs/lows will be.

naughty ryanair!

new 5 day met office model looks like midweek it clears.

short of time so c/p from travel thread:

latest NATS statement which tells you about present closed air space.

5 day ashcast black=no fly, Charts are at 6 hour intervals at different heights. Note they become increasingly inaccurate over time.

short term ashcast gives a better idea of where closures are likely to happen over the next day. It seems very likely to me that airports in parts of the north/midlands will close later today, including Manchester and later perhaps Birmingham.

another point to note is that from midweek on, it looks like the ash is taken to the nw of Iceland, which is where normal weather patterns would take it. It would be good if it were to stay there travel wise.

One of eldest Makies friends is distraught, was due to travel to Florida tomorrow from Manchester......

that is a real bastard. what time are they due to fly?

Perhaps they'll be able to get to Florida when the ash clears (hopefully) in a few days.

It all truly sucks bigtime. We're all so used to being able to rely on planes and everything being on time but at the moment, there's just no knowing when/if the weather patterns will change and bring another load of ash our way.