Summer 2026 (1st June ~ start of meteorological Summer)

[GloriaSmud]

Yesterday (1st June) marked the start of meteorological summer (and the high temperatures last week were hot enough for some and enough to last the year!)

At the moment, the GFS thinks the first 10 days of June are looking unsettled and changeable, then slightly drier/warmer towards the end of next week but the unsettled theme still continues until the middle of the month.

Thoughts from Netweather (from a few days ago) and TheWeatherOutlook on what summer might have in store for us.

21
Northerly

Not many SE folks on here

it's much hotter than they said it would be today, but I figured that because tomorrow is going to be really hot. So there was no logic in what they said for today.

girding myself for what looks like another tough fortnight here

my phone always says 21 or 22 but feels like 24
what is that all about?

Definitely feels hotter here in the SW than they said it would be.

I'm south London - car was registering 30 today, far far hotter than predicted so I am worried about the next few days.

I’m SE. Mentally preparing for another round of heat after just hot weather today I’m becoming used to it in many ways but I’m ready for a break tbh

Maybe @GloriaSmud could confirm or deny this, but on the temps feeling hotter than forecast, I’m sure I read somewhere that the official monitoring équipement at weather stations is always in the shade? (At least sheltered from direct sun, wind, rain etc to make sure instruments always work etc). I was flabbergasted because the difference could be a lot!
Is that right @GloriaSmud or have I made that up in my head? It could make sense that the special thermometer in a little hut somewhere says 27 and outside it’s 31!

I'm SE (on the edge of London/Kent). It was very cool this morning, and I did go out early. But hot again by the afternoon, and not as much cloud as yesterday. @MotherOfCatBoy I heard that too, I think it was on a Met Office YouTube video. It explains a lot!

Am bracing myself for heat again 😔

I was taught that it's in the shade too

@MotherOfCatBoy ~ This is quite detailed but I found this on the observations network that the metoffice has and where they're all situated. (That's a long list of measurements that they take!) and also this. But yes, there can be a big difference sometimes between what the metoffice says and what it feels like.

And yes, brace for more heat, especially in the South/SE this week (gfs showing maximum temperatures in the mid-upper 30sC, mid-week) as well as Wales and the Midlands (upper 20s-30C by the middle of the week.) Any rain that's been showing up on the gfs just seems to be pushed further and further into the future at the moment....

Interesting @GloriaSmud and it makes sense… and explains why sometimes there’s a few degrees in it. Makes me wonder if records are even higher..

Scientifically there has to be a standard way to measure temperature, and it should be outdoors in the shade otherwise things like ventilation, glazing or the colour of the thermometer could affect the reading and render records meaningless.

I have just looked back at the last 24hrs on the local Met office climate station. It was about 3 degrees warmer here than they forecast.

Thursday and Friday were supposed to be fairly similar in terms of temp and feels like temp but there was a noticeable difference.

This morning is lovely. Still lying on my bed with a nice cool breeze. Might go for a walk in a minute before it heats up again.

@MotherOfCatBoy ~ on our local TV weather forecast (maybe it happens on the national one as well), they sometimes say what the temperature forecast could be but also something along the lines of 'locally it could be higher', maybe to account for other people getting different readings from their phone/car/own weather station (mine always reads a few degrees higher than what's forecast but it's in the best spot I could manage and in the sun quite a lot!)

Today's thoughts from Netweather ~ Heatwave number 5...

Now this website is beyond my ken. But according to a Yorkshire paper there's going to be heavy rain as early as 18th August.

"WXCharts" www.wxcharts.com?dataset=ecmwf_op&region=europe&element=overview&run=00&dtg=2026-08-19T18%3A00%3A00Z&meteoModel=ecop&ensModel=eceps&chartRun=0&lat=51.65&lon=17.57

@GloriaSmud I know AI has a tendency to talk rubbish
One thing that it has said to me is that forecasts tend to predict rain 10 days ahead as a matter of default? That they’re stuck in some sort of pattern because of normal British weather and that’s why I keep seeing rain 10 days ahead…. At any given time. So it will say 10 days away now and then tomorrow the same and the pattern goes on and on.

I suspect this is an AI hallucination. But I’ve been interested to know your thoughts? I find it hard to believe the models would just default to anything.

edit - it does mean mathematical models rather than human read models - it’s basically telling me that the excuse is climatology or something?

@EmeraldRoulette ~ I don't know about the default 10 day pattern ~ I know the gfs used to have a habit of going a bit 'all over the place' when it got to the end of its run (which is why when looking towards the end of a run, I have an attempt at forecasting but add, 'but that's a long time into the future when it comes to forecasting and could/probably will change.')

The metoffice are already looking at AI when it comes to forecasting and there's quite a good explanation here about how they think it'll improve things. But the paragraph that leapt out is my thinking that technology might not be able to cope with extreme weather events as our climate changes. So (as with all things connected with AI), I hope that they don't let it go too far...

@GloriaSmud thank you

Dangerously hot times due on Weds and Thursday. 36 plus in London.

Every time I check the forecast, we’re promised cooler temps in just a few days - then they go up.

And up.

It’s misery. Londoners are staying in now - I live by a huge park and it’s deserted, unheard of for a London summer in a central family area. Tennis courts, the pond, the cafes - barely a soul to be seen.

It should be easier for a couple of days on Aug 21-22 but remember forecasts always shoot up at the last minute.

@Supersimkin7 so that’s day 10, which AI is telling me has no value! That does align with my obsessive forecast watching, it’s usually crap.

i’m just interested because someone on here is finally seeing what I’ve been talking about for two months.

pig sick of the underreporting - surely not every weather person works for the bbc.

apparently it’s to do with computers and averages. What difference does that make to us, harrumph.

It’s enough to make a conspiracy theory sprout from all the dead grass round here.

I have completely given up looking at or believing any forecast of say more than 5 days ahead. Maybe they should stop issuing them as they are so inaccurate. With everyone in the SE so desperate to rain and a cool down. It’s gutting to see it change every time we get closer.

I could really do without insane temperatures on Thursday and Friday this week.

And yet again I have a huge discrepancy in the forecasts
for next week. One says 19 and rain on Tuesday. And one says 26 degrees (BBC) That’s a 7 degree difference- utterly insane. How can anyone plan anything?

If you look at the temperature differences we have seen across the UK over the past few days and even across England - I can see why it’s hard to get an accurate prediction - huge drop over a few miles