Mumsnet Christmas weather guessing/forecasting thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Alright, I've cracked! Its time to get the ball rolling on this festive thread.
19 days to go to Christmas day. I've got less time than usual to contribute to the thread but there is plenty of space for everyone to have a go.

At the moment I'd say that its all up in the air (groan). While mild and unsettled is the most likely outcome, there are some weak signals that we might be moving back to a colder regime sometime around Christmas or New Year. Especially for the usual north and northeast regions.

[GloriaSmud]

Yay ~ the Christmas weather thread ~ I knew it was coming sooner or later!

I think Netweather's Santa shaker belongs here.

[GloriaSmud]

Looking at the GFS (which goes up to the 22nd) at the moment, I'd say settled with chilly days and frosty nights.

[Mummapenguin20]

Yay Christmas weather x

[IBegYourBiggestPardon]

I'm going for wet and miserable

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'll take that one Gloria!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Still in guessing territory at the moment, but there are hopeful signs that Gloria may be right. After a lot of sogginess to come in the short term, the hints that we might be moving to a cold blocked scenario are becoming stronger. Crossing all my fingers!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

The other possibility though is mild blocked - this could give us fog and gloom instead.

[MorrisZapp]

Never thought of the weather as a regime! Love the insider speak.

[TanteRose]

PMK

I’ll be in the UK this Christmas (woo-hoo!) so I’ll be keeping an eye on this thread

thanks as always OYBBK

I’m heading to Lancashire which is usually wet but am hoping for some crisp days!

[GloriaSmud]

I might actually be right?!?!
I'm still going with cold/frosty but that's an interesting end to this morning's GFS run (which ends on the 23/12) Something colder coming from the north? ❄

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

ooooh,
GFS reaches midnight of the 23rd/24th December now.

It shows a fairly cold night, around freezing or so. It also shows... Snow! Predominately the eastern side of England and Scotland, but snow showers elsewhere.

Just one model, one model run, not a forecast etc...

[Delatron]

Nice to have a little bit of hope though! Wet mild Christmas days always seem a bit wrong but seems to be the most common weather here then!

[OneMiniMincePieTooFar]

Snow may be a dream too far but I'd happily take a cold night on 24th, waking to a glittery morning of frost.

[BooseysMom]

@OneMiniMincePieTooFar

Snow may be a dream too far but I'd happily take a cold night on 24th, waking to a glittery morning of frost.

Yes much nicer than all these damp miserable gloomy days! Although I'm NHS and have to work over Xmas and it's a lot of driving. 😖i wish I could just stay at home and look at it through the windows.

[TokyoSushi]

Yay! Another of my favourite threads! Checking in! 🛷

[justasking111]

Please no welsh rain 🙈

[RainbowZebraWarrior]

@justasking111

Please no welsh rain 🙈

Please just no more rain in general. It's been dreadful and feels never ending.

I don't know if I dare let myself get slightly excited by the possibility of a crisp, cold and potentially white Christmas.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

GFS backs away from a lovely cold scenario and by Christmas Day brings in mild weather.

[Vroomfondleswaistcoat]

Am I alone in just wanting some inclement weather (of any kind) to make drawing the curtains and banking up the fire feel really cosy?

Although actually thinking about it - no more rain. Please.

[RedToothBrush]

I will be happy with it merely being dry. That means flooding is likely.

[BellaTheDarkOverlord]

My weather forecast is now showing sleet snow on 23rd in West Yorkshire! 😁

[Pascha]

As I sit staring out at the gloom and rain this afternoon I think I will be happy with dry and not too warm over the Christmas period please.

I don't need snow, I don't need it frosty, or even particularly sunny (though that would be nice),
All I ask for Chrismas is dry.

[GloriaSmud]

Christmas forecast no.3 from Netweather.

[GloriaSmud]

As for my own weather guess/forecast ~ I'm going for an unsettled run-up to Christmas Day but the day itself, chilly with the possibility of snow for northern England and Scotland (and that probably applies more for over the hills.)

[GloriaSmud]

I think (looking at the GFS), there's an increasing chance of it turning colder next week, with the chance of snow for some. Thoughts from the metoffice hint at it too.....

17th-26th December
For most locations more settled weather continues into Sunday with high pressure close to the southwest of the UK. Though northern and western Scotland likely remaining in a more wet and windy, but exceptionally mild regime. Settled conditions in the south with well above average temperatures here too, but cloudy at times with some patchy light rain, mainly near western coasts and over hills. From next week high pressure will likely move further west into the central Atlantic, allowing a return to unsettled conditions and typically nearer average temperatures nationwide. It now looks probable that there will be at least one short-lived colder interlude next week, with a period of north or northwesterly winds that could bring some snow and ice, especially in the north.

27th December-10th January
Most likely continuing unsettled with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the north and northwest. There is a continued chance of a short-lived colder spell or two, with hazards such as snow and ice, with this chance perhaps increasing slightly in late December and into the New Year period. However, on balance conditions are most likely to remain generally mild and wetter than average for most of the UK.