Mumsnet Christmas weather guessing/forecasting thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Alright, I've cracked! Its time to get the ball rolling on this festive thread.
19 days to go to Christmas day. I've got less time than usual to contribute to the thread but there is plenty of space for everyone to have a go.

At the moment I'd say that its all up in the air (groan). While mild and unsettled is the most likely outcome, there are some weak signals that we might be moving back to a colder regime sometime around Christmas or New Year. Especially for the usual north and northeast regions.

Kitten, I'm grateful for whatever forecasting you offer, and have no expectations, I just enjoy comparing what you say with what the met office tells us. Saying that, if you want a break that's entirely understandable and to be expected, given that it's nearly Christmas and all.

I'm going for "very likely to rain", which as I live in Argyll is probably going to be correct.

I love these threads because I like to be nosy about other people's weather.

My spot in England tends to concentrate on drab & dank. Although I should appreciate it more because it's currently NOT raining so that feels like a win!

@OhYouBadBadKitten no-one is complaining about you - we are all very grateful for these threads . I'm in NE England, and even when (radio) weather forecasts are more specific, sometimes NW England is mentioned, but not NE England Even when we do get a proper mention, they often get it wrong - seemingly failing to factor in the effect of the North Sea. Sometimes I can even predict the correct weather myself, when they can't.

I'll take off my huffy pants. When I put them on, it's often a sign that I'm juggling too much and getting overtired.

TV and radio forecasters get immensely frustrated with the lack of time given to them to be able to give detailed forecasts. They get squeezed into slots that are 30 secs- 2 mins or so. Wrap that up with disagreements about where is North, where is NE etc and forecast uncertainty and it's no wonder people are dissatisfied with forecasts.

Given how much we love talking about the weather they certainly deserve a longer slot.

I find as a sailor look at which way the wind is blowing to be pretty reliable. Nor westerlies well Wales and Cornwall will be hit first. Easterlies NE first. Look at the isobars, pressure how close are they. I was pretty peed off when isobars were replaced by fluffy clouds but then the BBC dumped the met office. It's now a Scrabble around to find data which as kitten says is time consuming

Eek that's cold

I'm going to guess they'll have a white Christmas!

I'm in the south west and it keeps changing between wet all day and sunshine all day. One forecast said there was going to be strong winds but I think it was a blip

If we are taking bets for where we are...I'm placing a fiver it will be wet (drizzle) and miserable and grey on Christmas Day in Derbyshire. I mean, it's been this way for most of the past 3 months so can't see it suddenly changing unless Ireland wants to throw us another storm.

< slaps a five pound note on the table >

EDIT - When they change from day to day like this, I can put an hour or so into a forecast, only for it to change in the next model run.
Wow Kitten, I would be very surprised if you have any hair left! Thank you for doing this, it does make very interesting reading

North Yorkshire voting that we might have some sleet on Christmas Day. Just watched the Met Office forecast and they are saying that there might be snow 'in the North', but did not define 'North'. Could be Scotland, could be us...

In the NW here. The Met office have clouds and two rain drops and a min of 5C for the 23rd. So I think snow is off the table here.

25th forecast comes tomorrow though.

Met office again:

Christmas weather
Through the weekend a band of rain sinks south, initially with colder, showery conditions to the north and milder, wetter conditions to the south. As this clears south, a ridge of high pressure is likely to briefly build from the south-west. Wintry showers continue to feed in across the north and here colder conditions also mean rural areas will likely see a frost on Christmas morning. This colder interlude is likely to be short lived, as milder, more unsettled Atlantic conditions look to return from the west later on Christmas Day or early on Boxing Day.

Helen continued: “As we begin Christmas Day wintry showers initially feeding in across the north in the colder air mass would technically make it a white Christmas, as we only need to see a single flake falling. Elsewhere, while it is likely at first to be mostly dry there is the potential for rain approaching from the west later on. As this moves east, we may see rain turning to snow, at least over high ground. It’s unlikely that we will see widespread or settling snow giving any proper accumulations. Although technically it might be a white Christmas, don’t get your hopes up for a picture-perfect white landscape.”

I live in Sheffield. This is now recognised as the snowiest city in the U.K.

It will probably snow here😭

In west Oxfordshire, I expect to see a high of around 8C and maybe some drizzle.

They said it was 11 in my neck of the woods today

It absolutely isn't.

one forecast has 8 for Xmas Day, another says 4. I'm going with 2!

GFS at the moment.....

Christmas Eve ~ rain for Scotland, dry and mild elsewhere. Turning cold for Scotland overnight....

Christmas Day ~ turning colder from the north. Snow over the Scottish hills, maybe some at lower levels. Possibly snow over NW and NE hills (Cumbria/Northunberland sort of areas) and Welsh hills. Mild/damp/drizzly the rest of the country.

Boxing Day ~ risk of snow in the same areas as Christmas Day. Dry and average temperatures elsewhere ~ 7C/8C

Latest Christmas thoughts from Netweather

Having spoken to DS, I now know that I want Derbyshire to be mild over Christmas. Otherwise he may have to go into work to power up diesel locos to stop them freezing up

Anything except rain will do me, here in NE England...

Mild here, for winter anyway

When the children were small I used to wish for snow for them. Now they're adults I want the roads to be safe for visiting us at Christmas.

It's suppose to be 9 degrees and cloudy here in the SW on xmas day. I think it will be dark and gloomy but mild in temp. Would've love at least a nice morning frost 🙄

Yeah looking like my least favourite Christmas weather in the SE - dull and mild. Would love sun and a frost. We’ve gone up to 11 now on the forecast- ridiculous!

Christmas Day forecast where I am:

Met Office
Grey, mild but dry

AccuWeather
Grey, mild but pissing it down

BBC weather
Mild, with sunny spells and rain

I think I might continue searching through forecasts until I find one I like, then pick that one.

What do you mean that's not how it works?!....

Yep grey & mild here too.
Ok driving weather but bloody drab to be in.

I don't really want snow. Just a sharp frost with a bit of a twinkle and blue skies.