Mumsnet Christmas weather guessing/forecasting thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Alright, I've cracked! Its time to get the ball rolling on this festive thread.
19 days to go to Christmas day. I've got less time than usual to contribute to the thread but there is plenty of space for everyone to have a go.

At the moment I'd say that its all up in the air (groan). While mild and unsettled is the most likely outcome, there are some weak signals that we might be moving back to a colder regime sometime around Christmas or New Year. Especially for the usual north and northeast regions.

Colder next week is okay im having two teeth out on Tuesday so will be relaxing. This morning thought right clean out conservatory/dining room today. You ever tried cleaning glass in brilliant sunshine. SUNSHINE!! why now?

Ive been neglecting you all Work is crazy at the moment and by the time it gets to the evening I'm too tired to think much.
It does look like we are going into a settled spell, followed by possibly a cold snowy pattern setting up just before Christmas. GFS, which always over does snow has quite the feast setting up! ECM which tends to be more circumspect also shows the possibility of snow.

11 days to go. My current forecast (NE coast of England) for both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is sunny and about 0 degrees to 5 degrees. I'll take that (bound to change)

The settled spell looks very short indeed. with some very unsettled weather quite possibly moving in around the Christmas period. Timings and any details are impossible at present, hence no blow by blow detailing of possibilities over Christmas. There is the risk of gales and snow, especially in the north, but perhaps a wider risk elsewhere.

< wanders in with a huge tray filled with mugs of hot chocolate and tea >

My son driving home on 23rd Leeds to North Wales, I worry about snow and ice, accidents. I just want him home safe 🥹

A week to go for my usual epic drive to Scotland. Usually it is rather wet but not too much snow. This year I expect will be the same but snow is hard to predict so anything could happen.

Worst spot tends to be M6 between Carlisle the M74 and then up to Glasgow. Will need to keep an eye on weather in that area. Any ideas on current snow risk in that area around 21st/22nd?

nannynick ~ I'd say at the moment, the 21st looks the milder of the two days. 22nd looks a little more wintry, especially over the hills and mountains.

Could be fun on the Aberdeen WPR (bypass) on 22nd. Surprising how high that gets in places.

All relevant models show a mild Christmas this morning. I give up!

I really need boring Xmas weather down south this year. No excessive rain, fog or ice. I'll probably be driving in the dark a couple of times and don't want to have to cancel plans.

I'm still going with mild and wet.

Very wet.

The BBC forecast keeps changing wildly (as always) but I currently have some potential sleety rain snowflakes showing around Christmas.

Latest outlook:

Christmas Eve - GFS chilly. Snow showers possible in the north.
ECM Chilly in the north, milder further south

Christmas Day - GFS Chilly. Some snow possible in the north.
ECM - some rain, sleet or snow possible in the north.

Boxing Day - GFS Milder in the south but benign weather overall.
ECM -turning pretty snowy in Scotland.

ICON shows a cold Christmas period.

Overall the summary is that it looks like it might be much more seasonal than many expect.

Met office
Into the Christmas period, there is an increased chance of a colder interlude with northerly winds bringing some snowfall and ice, especially for the north. However, this colder interlude could be very short-lived, and may not reach the far south before a milder Atlantic westerly flow potentially becomes re-established

So that's rain then. 😉

Christmas Eve - GFS chilly. Snow possible in the north.
ECM Pretty wet in places. Mild away from Scotland

Christmas Day - GFS Cold in the north, chilly else where. Mostly dry
ECM - generally dry.

Boxing Day - GFS Milder in the south with some rain possible. Mild air returning pretty much everywhere by the end of the day.
ECM - yuk for the north!

UKMO extends to Christmas Eve. It shows a marked temperature contrast. South is mild, north chilly/cold.

What is 'The North'?!

It's such a woolly phrase. Is it the north of Great Britain, the North of England, the North East, the North West?

It kinda is so vague as a phrase. I would term myself as living in the north but so many times the weather forecasts don't seem to think I do.

It strikes me as a phrase for those located in London to easily understand whilst everyone else scratches their head!

@RedToothBrush I was thinking the same thing re: The North. I tried that snow shaker forecaster, and was amused to see a 40% chance of snow in the North. I'm on the coast in North East England. Surely that's an entirely different region to say, Bradford or Manchester.

@RedToothBrush I know what you mean. I'm in Oxfordshire which is often classed as 'south east' or just 'south' but is actually more in the middle, but never put in the Midlands. Doesn't make much sense.

Sorry, I sound like I'm being a bit of an arse of this, but I'm not meaning to be. It's just really confusing!

Well, it IS confusing!

Kitten is just providing the headlines. So yes it's very broad brush.

I'm in the south but several hours away from my Dad's bit of the south and even further from my sister in laws bit. Our day to day weather forecasts are very different because there is about 200 miles between us.

Oh it's not a criticism of Kitten at all.

It's a general thing about weather forecasting.

It's called: I'm trying to juggle too much in too little time and don't have time to specify regions. Especially given the huge uncertainty in the models at present. When they change from day to day like this, I can put an hour or so into a forecast, only for it to change in the next model run. Looking at weather models takes a great deal of time.

I think perhaps people are better off sticking with met office forecasts for the time being, given I can't put in the time that people would like to see.