Snow watch.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

While for many it is milder today, it will become colder again tomorrow. The main snow risk starts on Thursday where both GFS and ECM show a risk of snow in the south into the midlands and Wales, away from south eastern coastal counties. They both model a low moving in from the Azores, bumping into cold air.

GFS takes this right into northern England and parts of Scotland.

As always, early days and so there is lots of uncertainty. We await the next model run

I've kept the log burner in all day today, with a poorly dog and three grandchildren it's earned its keep

Central Scotland- not even a threat of snow 😔

A flurry here London

Just saw an article with how much other places are getting,

We (north Hampshire) had drifty snow this afternoon, it was melting as soon as it touched anything, except my coat. I looked like a little snow woman from the front, my arms are too short for selfies unfortunately!!

looking forward to the early run to work tomorrow (not) but I'm hoping there will be some on the play park/field to make footprints 👣 in!!

We have snow here in Somerset (Devon/Somerset border). Started about 6ish, stopped but is now coming down faster. A little is starting to settle. Fingers crossed for the morning - the kids would love a snow day at school.

A few flakes here in S. Wales.

Thread is on active conversations which makes me happy. Also S Wales, and some flakes but we need more. Hoping the mountains will be pretty in the morning!

Models are starting to flag up the possibility of a decent snow event for the south mid next week. Something to keep an eye on.

I've been looking at mid next week as well and wondering whether something will come of it.
<glances at sledge and wonders whether it could do with another polish>

Oooo this is exciting!

Oh i could really do without this news! Long drive from surrey/ Sussex border to Northumberland planned next Friday - and I normally love snow! We had a decent dusting yesterday, still lying now albeit frozen solid.

@OhYouBadBadKitten I lurk on the TWO/NW forums BUT I only start to get excited when you post something here. It's been (as ever) a complete rollercoaster in the last few days, and no doubt will continue to be so even as snow falls from the sky 😁but good to see that you think there is possibly something brewing.

I am, of course, now wondering what an indecent snow event would involve.....

Oh Gloria 😔 we have to manage our expectations. I'm not even looking at my 🛷

There are some rather rude snow sculptures that might fit the bill 🫣

I know hoochy but it keeps showing up
<hops from foot to foot excitedly>
But........ it is about a week away and a lot can happen in that time
<holds off sledge polishing>

There's a news report on MyLondon, no idea why it's on my feed I live hundreds of miles away, that says there's a weather map showing 156 hours of snowfall in London that will...wait for it... result in one to two cm of snow.

Surely if defies all laws of nature to snow for that long and leave no more than a gesture to show for it?

MetOffice long range for next week in interesting!

Cloud, with patchy light rain clearing central and southern areas initially. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places

".... there is an increasing risk of something ...." really does cover all possibilities, doesn't it!

That's because there are a wide possibility of solutions from cold but dry through to soggy, with snow in between.

They mentioned the "increased risk of something disruptive" in relation to snow next week, both after the BBC news at 1.30pm and on our local forecast (East Midlands Today) at 1.40pm. I think that's quite unusual to do that so far ahead.....

So the same 2cm building and melting? Mushmaggeddon, you can keep it.

place marking

I don't mean that at all.

Scenarios:
cold and dry (quite possibly in Scotland, but some of the ensembles members keep this as an option for the south too)

Mild atlantic pushing in, with potential battleground snow where the dividing line is. But how far it pushes in is ??? with the chance for some real disruptive snow. Perhaps rain on the south of that.

A combo of the two, with the scenarios alternating.

The range is from no snow to severe snow and nobody knows which it will be and where.

Models are still showing a snow event for next Wednesday/Thursday.

ECM shows snow over Wales, Midlands and Northern England. Also parts of Scotland
GFS keeps snow as a southern England - Midlands into East Anglia affair as it develops low pressure later and further south than ECM.

What they both show currently is a battleground between cold and atlantic systems. They also both show a pause/end to this quiet calm weather. In my personal opinion unfortunate really, given we could do with a longer respite from stuff falling out of the sky while river catchments recover from the onslaught of water. However, if you live in northern England/Scotland and are a fan of snow then GFS shows a lot of potential yet to come.

I should add a massive caveat to the above post before everyone strips the shops of bread (Don't!!!) and rushes out to buy a sledge. The ensembles generally provide a much less optimistic picture for snow lovers in the Midlands and the South. Quite a few ensemble members put that troublesome low pressure further south, which would keep us in cold air for longer, but pushes the snow risk mainly into northern England and Scotland.

In short - its a long way off and we still have no scooby whether a) the Midlands up will see snow b)southern England will be blanketed or c)noone gets a snow fest apart from the usual Scottish and perhaps northern England hills.

Sorry for the rollercoaster of prospects in two subsequent posts! Should have stuck them together in the same post!