Snow watch.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

While for many it is milder today, it will become colder again tomorrow. The main snow risk starts on Thursday where both GFS and ECM show a risk of snow in the south into the midlands and Wales, away from south eastern coastal counties. They both model a low moving in from the Azores, bumping into cold air.

GFS takes this right into northern England and parts of Scotland.

As always, early days and so there is lots of uncertainty. We await the next model run

A smattering of snow overnight here in North Birmingham. Enough to make it look festive but roads etc are fine.
It's foggy, grey and raining now

Proper snowflakes in Brussels but not heavy enough to stick

We got home via train yesterday late afternoon and DH went back and picked up the car this afternoon.

I knew about lake effect snow but only in tbe context of The Great Lakes in the USA. Being in the middle of an event was scary but also beautiful and awe inspiring.

We did check the weather before travelling and only light snow from mid afternoon was forecast; luckily we had walking boots and blankets etc in the car plus water.

People will say well you shouldn't have travelled at all but even the locals were stunned.

Over a foot of snow fell in a few hours.

I think that if we are due to travel anywhere in the UK and there is even a hint of snow forecast we will be ultra careful.

We were lucky and did not have to sleep on tbe car. After 6 hours stuck we managed to get turned round and parked in Bowness and walked up to windermere and got the last train to Lancaster. We found a hotel and then got the train back to windermere in the morning. Only for the train to stop and turn round at Staveley due to snow on tracks.

We got the train back home and DH went and collected tbe car this afternoon after weather warnings lifted.

What an experience!

Glad you are home safely now. Did DD enjoy her birthday?

Wet wet wet here.

Let's just say she won't forget her birthday @LooksABitElvish

Last year DH was in critical care and we nearly lost him and this year we Snowmaggedon!

Maybe a quiet at home celebration next year! @beenrumbled Hope your DH is recovered now.

Thanks OYBK .I'm a late checker-in!

I can't work out whether to put this in the winter thread, this thread or the https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4957661-mumsnet-christmas-weather-guessingforecasting-thread?reply=131297837 christmas thread.

But GFS has some very fun/not fun charts for the week leading up to Christmas at present, in terms of snow potential. Need to keep an eye on this!

Wow, potential snow at actual Christmas?! Brilliant

Off topic a little, a poster on a thread the other day mentioned that snowfall will be more prevalent with climate change - does that sound right to you?

Its definitely not a forecast! But it's certainly an interesting prospect. Desecrated

In terms of snowfall becoming more prevalent with climate change, I'm not sure. I've not seen any research that suggests weather patterns would change in a way that would create more snowfall. Our climate tends to be very marginal for snow anyway and we've seen less, not more over the past few years.

Yeah, that was my assumption but I did wonder if I had missed some piece of news or research that suggested otherwise.

Potential for this Xmas is good enough for me oybbk!

I’ve just had 3 breaking news weather bulletins from different sources 😂
1 heatwave on way
2 snow coming
3 wind an rain to hit

i guess that covers everything

Is that tomorrows forecast then?

Tbh it was not cold with wind and rain only missing the snow but in the m4 corridor we mostly do

My Facebook tells me there is significant snow in and around Glasgow. We have cold rain in NE England, there was frost first thing. Disappointing ❄️❄️❄️

Any thoughts on the polar vortex the press has started talking about . I always come to this thread for the real facts

I wouldn't worry too much about the polar vortex, or sudden stratospheric warming at this point. .theres a lot of hype around the behaviour of these, when often our weather patterns are more subtle.
What happens over the next few weeks will depend on the development of high pressure and where it sits over us.

Snow watch is back in business. (apologies to those in Scotland who had disruptive snow over the Christmas period)

Theres a fairly reasonable chance that some parts of the SE may wake up to some snow on Tuesday morning. It will depend on wind direction and other factors, but snow showers may come in from a NE-ENE direction. It's possible that a Thames Streamer may evolve. This is an informal term for when a belt of snow showers funnels down the Thames.

There are various streamer type situations and they are broadly similar to lake effect snow where cold air moves over warmer water and sets up showers. Topology creates a convergence zone which effectively funnels the showers into a narrow line. Another example of this is the Permbrokeshire Dangler.

Please please please let it snow in London/Essex ❄😍

darn it. Pembrokeshire dangler.

Ooh a Thames streamer! That’s one I’ve not heard before. I live right by the Thames!

😂😂 sounds saucy

Whereabouts on the Thames might this streamer happen?

The Met Office forecasts covering the tidal Thames area (Teddington lock down to the coast) are all fairly benign at the moment (Mon overnight cloudy 2C, feels like -2C, 10% chance precipitation; Tues even some sun, 4C but feeling like -1C, <5% chance precipitation). Snow in London would be fun though!

Pembrokeshire Dangler sounds like a real ale served in a fisherman's pub, or perhaps a naice artisan cheese!

We've had two very bad RTA's today in North Wales. One on Rhuallt hill six cars and a lorry. Another on Anglesey between Llangefni and Rhosneigr. A number of vehicles involved with barriers down

Both described as sleet/hail storms. Visibility appalling, cars aquaplaning . One driver said he'd never seen anything that bad.

So be careful out there

I was going to offer toilet tissues 🤣🤣