Storm Ciarán

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

Being fine? Frankly... low, I'd expect disruption, but a lot depends on timing of the flight and the timing of the weather..

It's a complicated forecast but initially strong wind out of the south (crosswind) and also for a period (0600-0900UTC) they've got a high probability of gusts (again, crosswind) of up to 43 knots - best part of 50 mph...which will possibly be at/above many aircraft's crosswind limitations (especially if there's heavy rain).

The good news is at around the same period wind starts veering around to the west which makes things a bit more favourable...but there's also the chance of very heavy showers.

As a general point for any airports if we do get some sustained and really high winds it might be that ground operations start to become difficult/unsafe and so get stopped - things like bag and cargo loading, door opening, step/jetty handling...so that's another area where there is the potential for disruption over the next 24 hours..it's not just about the pure aviating side of things.

We’re away on the Ceredigion coast, overlooking the sea. Today’s been interesting, torrential downpours, gales and black skies interspersed with bright sunshine, blue skies and a breeze. The sea really built up over the morning, 10-12’ waves easily but less now, I guess it’s the lull before the storm.
We had double rainbows too.
Really not sure what weather we’ll get here as on the edge of the yellow area.

Have moved my Eurostar from London to Paris from Thurs morning to Friday. The forecast in northern France and around the channel was bad enough to make me doubt my chances...

Wondering if Big Jet TV will be doing a broadcast tomorrow. I was hooked by their coverage from Heathrow during Storm Eunice last year.

Am I missing something or surely you're going under the channel

@dingit Haha I'd hope so! But worried about trees on tracks, wind across the overhead wires etc....

My dc Schools closed tomorrow in North Devon. Can hear the rain coming down now.

Same 😂Shall definitely be tuning in to Gerry ! I was hooked for about 5 hrs during Storm Eunice 😊

The brilliant Jerry has already done one today! You can watch the recording here (I hope).
Bang goes my evening!

Is it not half term down there then? It is here

Jerry did a live broadcast from Heathrow today. I think he called it the 'Storm Ciaran prelude'

Oh wow I thought everyone had half term last week?

I really wish Bournemouth had made a decision about schools. I think they're hoping to open.

Half term here in Wales. It’s a week later than England and two weeks (I think) later than Scotland.

Makes sense. You get Halloween in half term then!

Most schools here (West Sussex) have said they won’t shut unless the weather warnings turn red
Very still here currently

Southampton and Portsmouth schools have been directed to close. I'm based halfway between on the coast and pleased they've made that decision. OH works in Poole right on the seafront and seems adamant they'll expect him at work (painter/decorator)

No, last week was half term here

Still quiet (and rainy) in Plymouth. I think waiting for it is almost worse....

Half term was last week here. School opposite me is opening tomorrow We are in a yellow warning area,

North Coast Cornwall check-in. Been rainy & a little windy but nothing out of the ordinary at all so far.

Ngl. Feeling a lil disappointed

Apologies I haven't read the full thread. Please could anyone say if the storm is expected to hit Hertfordshire?

North coast of Cornwall here too, well about 4 miles inland. Not much happening so far. Was a bit blustery this morning but brightened up and the wind dropped for most of the afternoon.

Being cautious though and working from home tomorrow regardless.

It is half term in Gloucestershire and North Yorkshire this week too, I think it just varies by county in England.

Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (and most of Dorset) are now out of the amber area according to the Met Office and are only going to be yellow WRT to wind and rain over the next 36 hours so schools are likely to stay open as long as teachers don't live too far away so can't get in...

That said, I'm in the BCP area and the wind is now picking up quite strongly given it's been quite calm all day...

Watching Jerry right now 😀

It's definitely swirling around out there, the rain splatting against the windows at work was quite something but tbh it's often like that as we're on a hill and there's not much between us and the channel. Going to nip out in a sec to check there's nothing that might blow away. Was quite surprised that people going to a work training day in Devon tomorrow have been advised to "make their own judgement" as to whether it's safe to travel. They're all driving up at 8am 😕 I wouldn't be going - once drove on the M40 near Aston Rowant during 50+mph winds and it was terrifying.