Storm Ciarán

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

Hello from the Channel Islands! Can I join in? We are fully braced and if I'm honest pretty bloody anxious here.

Schools, airports and businesses closed tomorrow. Some coastal roads closing 5.30 tonight until further notice. Parish halls prepped to provide refuge.

Break in the rain here in Surrey, so just put some washing on the line as it starting to get a bit breezy.

Hello! thinking of you - stay safe!

Do take care FoleyHuck. The predicted wind speeds for Jersey are terrifying.

Thank you. We live at the top of a hill on the coast, on the top (third) floor of an apartment building. Not ideal!

Which direction do your windows face in?

Lounge is south west(!), bedroom / kitchen are north east.

From Portsmouth, it's been a very calm and quiet day zo far & actually it's rained far less than any day lately. I guess it's literally the calm before the storm 🤔

I think windows are in most danger of being lifted out of their frames by strong wind going directly across their surface. I have seen this before. Will the wind be going straight across any of your windows?

We've had windows fly out before in strong wind and crash into the garden (we live in a very old building) so we'll be screwing the dodgy ones shut when I get home. We're on the coast in an amber warning zone.

We are just along the coast at Chichester. Has been blowing a gale all morning with intermittent rain.

Now calmed which is quite eerie.

@OhYouBadBadKitten Erm... you don't think this is possibly a 1987 "...hurricane on the way, don't worry, there isn't!" situation, do you?

Hello! I'm on the south coast so expecting wild weather tonight and tomorrow. A question - I have a new greenhouse and am a bit worried about it blowing away... should I close the door?? It's been open all summer.

@Madlymumming snap. We’ve just had a WFH order. School have emailed to say they’re open and as far as they’re aware buses will be running as normal (normal isn’t great at the best of times 😅)

Just outside of Bath here....it's been sunny albeit a bit breezy this morning. It has now gone very dark (having to put the "big light on), and blowing a gale.

Edited for update. It has just started with the hailstones and the wind has intensified....looks like it's going to be a lively afternoon/evening.

The temperature has dropped a good few degrees in a couple of hours here. Very noticeable. We have sunshine and a breeze after a morning of downpour and wind (mid-Wales).

Sudden change here about 11 miles south of Bristol. Sunny morning, now in the last 20 minutes it's got dark, cold, rainy and windy all at once. Definite feel of approaching ominous storm.

That's my list too. I've charged up the kindle as well.

Barely a hint of any bad weather where I am in Yorkshire. So interesting how we can have such variation of weather on such a (relatively) small island!

Thinking of those of you in the more affected areas. Stay safe, warm and dry.

Storm Ciarán showing up quite well here.

North coast of Cornwall checking in.

Barest of breezes, sunny & mild. Rain & hail for a bit earlier, passed quickly.

Ha ha - sun's just come out again! Lol.
Anything could happen I reckon.

Definitely the calm before the storm here. I can see blue sky and clouds / trees that are just barely moving from my office window.

No, I don't. I think this is being pretty well forecast. I've not seen any suggestions of a sting jet for example, which is thought to be what caused the worst of the damage in 1987.

It will be a dangerous storm for the Channel Islands for sure and parts of the SW and perhaps the far SE. Conditions look like they will also probably be pretty dangerous along parts of the south, especially by the coast.. Amber warnings should be taken seriously.

Elsewhere, in yellow areas, care should be taken. It is possible that it penetrates a little further in land than the forecast might suggest at present.

I'm a bit concerned actually about how difficult it is to clearly communicate risk level. To some this is a dangerous storm. For others, even perhaps in the warning areas, they will not see very high winds. That doesn't mean that the forecast was necessarily inaccurate, but more that people don't understand probability.

I suspect that this won't be the last named storm of the season and if media don't report risks accurately, then next time people may ignore warnings.

Yes, close the door and any vents. Remove anything from your garden that might hit it.