Storm Ciarán

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

@WreckTangled are you in BR?

Sorry to hear that

I sometimes think that this personalising of storms and the media's recent interest is actually adding to people's anxiety sometimes, whereas they might not have had worries before.

It's obviously sensible to be aware and adaptable of course.

@ThreeLeggedCat no not quite, (cathedral city).

Yet some will 🙄

My ex BIL was part of a mountain rescue team. Said the stupidity of some people was astonishing.

please can you explain what it says? I cant open the link

Can you go down the night before? I had an operation the day of a train strike and went in the night before, and spent the night dozing in the hospital entrance waiting area, with many others in the same situation.

Or get a hotel if you can afford it

Dam I was hoping we'd miss it. Looks like I'm heading to work in some nasty weather, bins and branches everywhere I must remember not to park at the end of the carpark with the trees.

You do need to double check your travel plans, lots of trains already cancelled

@WreckTangled me too, I work in BR though 😁

Severe Weather Europe had a bunch of graphics in an analysis. This is one projection - I meant to add that some of the forecasts look horrific for the western approaches of the channel, but left it too late to edit.

hopefully it won’t be this extreme. Still, with the recent rainfall and mild weather a lot of trees are at risk.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/powerful-north-atlantic-storm-ciaran-windstorm-forecast-uk-ireland-france-mk/

I was looking at the Met Office predictions for south central Cornwall and St Agnes with a colleague earlier today and they're forecasting gusts of 63mph at Aggy at 6am on Thurs. So that will be interesting. We'll see if the roof holds up. Thankfully I don't have any external meetings on Thursday! Good luck all.

I'm hoping that no migrant boats attempt to cross the channel that day. It would be catastrophic.

I've just listened to the weather on Radio 4, which follows the Midnight News. As is my wont, I also watched the Met Office weather map animation at the same time. Once again, a depression rotating above us like a great wet Catherine wheel. Rain, rain, go away!

@JenniferBooth
Thanks
The last couple of yellow warnings weren't too bad

I've also got to do a train journey for a medical thing and I'm worried about getting home again. It's more rain that concerns me. I got stuck for about three hours late at night in March, due the flloding and overhead cables being down. I was in tears by the time I got home but at least I got home. This time I won't be anywhere near home so not sure what will happen.

That time, it wasn't predicted to be so bad. Yellow sounds okay, and the relevant forecasts by postcode don't look half as bad as what the media are saying. But I'm still unsure and wondering about rescheduling, which may lead to a long wait.

@EmmaEmerald Could you book a cheap hotel overnight?

Sorry if it has already been asked, flights into London.. are we expecting much disruption?

Which coastal roads are closing, I’m not from jersey but we go a lot. Will St Ouens be shut for example, or more the small roads around north coast? St Brelade / St Aubins?

Well, its blowing a hoolie here in the shires. I can hear lots of things moving in my garden. Sounds like my patio furniture is moving, the mini greenhouse and watering cans are definitely not where they should be.
Good luck everyone.

Interesting Met Office deep dive here which explains why Storn Ciaran is exceptional, with the position of the jet stream causing explosive cyclogenesis and England expected to have the lowest pressure since 1916

@ThreeLeggedCat nightmare! I bet the roads round are really busy too. I sometimes go there for work but don’t need to atm thankfully. The rain just doesn’t seem to be stopping…

I just spent a few mins watching and the entirety was dedicated to share subscribe share subscribe come back Tuesday subscribe share….

The Heathrow forecast isn't catastrophic but it does show a high chance of some very strong gusts in crosswinds, combined with showers, particularly around the time of the morning arrivals tomorrow ...so probably extended holding for arriving flights and probably a few go-arounds

I haven't checked around this AM but I wouldn't be completely surprised if at some stage today the airport operators might call for some preemptive cancellations to free up capacity (so that usually hits the short haul operators), but I emphasise that's just me speculating.

Edit to add: Have now checked around a tiny bit, specifically Eurocontrol and they have already got Heathrow down for "Arrivals regulated due to weather (strong wind). Moderate to high delays."

FWIW no notes from them for the other UK airports..yet

Thanks @notimagain thats really helpful. Will keep a look out, DH is due to fly into London City short haul in the afternoon, not sure whether all will have passed by then or if worse as it’s small airport

I have to admit I don't know whether City has any particular issues with strong winds due to the surrounding buildings but FWIW by the afternoon generally the winds have reduced a little though there's still a forecast of chance of showers with strong gusts.

Hope it works out OK.

Thank you, lots of problems with crosswinds typically, lots of go arounds, we will have to see!