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Weather

Storm Ciarán

962 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/10/2023 08:59

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

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borntobequiet · 01/11/2023 07:07

Thanks for that Met Office Deep Dive, very interesting!

EmmaEmerald · 01/11/2023 07:32

SequentialAnalyst · 01/11/2023 02:53

@EmmaEmerald Could you book a cheap hotel overnight?

Cheap hotels don't seem to be a thing any more.

it's such a waste of money if it's not necessary, the last two yellow warnings here were just ...well nothing happened at all really.

i've woken up feeling like I have a lurgy so now wondering if I have to postpone it anyway!

Cornwallsfaveflappyj · 01/11/2023 07:44

Morning :) Barely any sleep last night due to more rain and the worry of flooding.

I'm going to get an early night tonight to catch up on sleep and be rudely awakened by Ciaran at 5am ish.

We have cables overhead and trees everywhere, the sea, a river, only one way out of the village.

Cornwallsfaveflappyj · 01/11/2023 07:50

Our local radio station just checked Windy.com and basically said there's one after another for Cornwall for a week or so 😂

Brilliant.

WestwardHo1 · 01/11/2023 07:53

twobluechickens · 31/10/2023 22:49

I was looking at the Met Office predictions for south central Cornwall and St Agnes with a colleague earlier today and they're forecasting gusts of 63mph at Aggy at 6am on Thurs. So that will be interesting. We'll see if the roof holds up. Thankfully I don't have any external meetings on Thursday! Good luck all.

I think they'll be stronger than that

CormorantStrikesBack · 01/11/2023 07:55

Dd is expecting to fly into stansted this evening, not sure if her flight will be cancelled

twobluechickens · 01/11/2023 07:55

Yeah it's already gone up to 67mph gusts on the met office. I was planning to go into the office tomorrow morning but swapping it to today and staying home tomorrow.

WestwardHo1 · 01/11/2023 07:56

notimagain · 01/11/2023 06:42

The Heathrow forecast isn't catastrophic but it does show a high chance of some very strong gusts in crosswinds, combined with showers, particularly around the time of the morning arrivals tomorrow ...so probably extended holding for arriving flights and probably a few go-arounds

I haven't checked around this AM but I wouldn't be completely surprised if at some stage today the airport operators might call for some preemptive cancellations to free up capacity (so that usually hits the short haul operators), but I emphasise that's just me speculating.

Edit to add: Have now checked around a tiny bit, specifically Eurocontrol and they have already got Heathrow down for "Arrivals regulated due to weather (strong wind). Moderate to high delays."

FWIW no notes from them for the other UK airports..yet

Edited

I've been obsessively checking Bristol.

I wonder if they'll be diverted to Birmingham.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/11/2023 08:06

The latest model runs (summarised) show 90+mph winds for the Brest peninsula and Channel Islands, perhaps 80+mph for some parts of cornwall (ukv shows 90+) 70-80mph along the south coast, perhaps a little higher in the far SE. Inland the speeds look much less fierce, models showing anywhere between 40mph to around 60mph depending on location. In these areas, unless you are affected by trees falling down or a power cut, some of you might be wondering what all the fuss is about.

There is still quite a lot of model variation in actual wind speeds. There probably will be until the storm actually hits.

Some big caveats to the above as well - a shift in the low pressure centre of even 25 miles say, would make a big difference to wind speeds experienced. It's not sensible to step outside to go for a nice windy walk in the forest (extreme example) because it isn't currently that windy where you are in an warning area.

If you are in an amber warning especially, take heed. Don't travel unless necessary. Don't go and try and watch the sea from a promenade (!) If you park your car under a tree normally, or if you are worried about tiles coming off, you might want to move it a bit.

Anywhere in the yellow or amber wind warnings area should make sure that trampolines are secured and everything that might blow away is put away. Make sure you know where your torches are and that your devices are charged. It's kind to check on vulnerable neighbours to let them know you are there for them and that they aren't too worried.

It is possible that a red warning might be issued for parts of the SW, I don't know whether it will meet the threshold for this though.

Flooding once again is a risk. There will be a fair bit of rain associated with this storm. The ground is saturated in many places and so it doesn't take much additional rainfall to create floods. Indeed, some places are already/still flooded.

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WreckTangled · 01/11/2023 08:23

How far from the coast is considered inland? (Not asking for safety or anything just curious!). The rain has been awful here this morning but I think it’s stopped now for the rest of the day thankfully.

DarklySparkly · 01/11/2023 08:26

The wind is getting up here already (mid-Wales). Not wild but noticeable.

notimagain · 01/11/2023 08:45

CormorantStrikesBack · 01/11/2023 07:55

Dd is expecting to fly into stansted this evening, not sure if her flight will be cancelled

She might be OK but a lot depends on timing.

FWIW Stansted has a better runway alignment for most of the forecast winds today than the likes Heathrow and London City.

By PM at Stansted the winds there will be strong but pretty much aligned with the runway..it’s only when you get to after around 2100 tonight that the winds start backing to become a strong south easterly which might cause problems with crosswinds in the gusts.

I would however expect there’s a chance of delays and I’d be expecting it to be bumpy on the flight, certainly in the later stages of flight, regardless of timing and wind direction.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/11/2023 08:46

Wreck I purposefully didn't define that at this point. so I don't get egg on my face Wink

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/11/2023 08:48

It does look like there will be an additional 'lump' of strong winds going through central southern areas tonight in advance of the main swath of gales.

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RedDiamond · 01/11/2023 09:02

I normally get my online supermarket shop delivered on a Thursday. In view of the storm I have bought it forward to this evening. I live 5 miles from the coast and really do not expect the delivery drivers to be out on Thursday if it is that bad. I chucked in some crisps and wine for when I am snuggling down on the sofa listening to it all. I live in a wind tunnel so I know it will be bad.

Alicay · 01/11/2023 09:10

Very, very (very) nervous flyer here. Coming in from Sicily to Gatwick at 7.30pm Thursday eve. I can't decode all the info/charts to find out how bad it'll be. Anyone wiser can help me?

PuzzledObserver · 01/11/2023 09:13

I’m in Mid Devon. We’ve got:

yellow warning for wind from 2100 tonight till 2359 tomorrow
amber warning for wind from 0300-1300 tomorrow
yellow warning for rain from 1800 today until 2359 tomorrow.

Don’t need to go anywhere tomorrow morning or afternoon, so will stay in. We have been planning to go to an event in North Devon tomorrow evening…. it will be after the amber warning has passed, but I am still wondering about the wisdom of an hour’s journey on unlit country roads with the yellow warnings still in force.

Thunderinglightly · 01/11/2023 09:26

Alicay · 01/11/2023 09:10

Very, very (very) nervous flyer here. Coming in from Sicily to Gatwick at 7.30pm Thursday eve. I can't decode all the info/charts to find out how bad it'll be. Anyone wiser can help me?

I can't help with your question but I highly recommend the Lovefly podcast (or just search for Lovefly or Paul Tizzard online) I think there is a Facebook group too. It's all about flight confidence.
I found it very helpful for keeping me calm when I flew in less than ideal conditions recently.

It was recommended on mumsnet back in the summer.

notimagain · 01/11/2023 09:32

Alicay · 01/11/2023 09:10

Very, very (very) nervous flyer here. Coming in from Sicily to Gatwick at 7.30pm Thursday eve. I can't decode all the info/charts to find out how bad it'll be. Anyone wiser can help me?

The detailed aviation forecast for Gatwick for tomorrow night hasn’t been published yet…it’ll be out this afternoon.

FWIW looking at the generic BBC/Met office stuff for the Gatwick area for the 2nd the good news is by evening the wind should be pretty much aligned with the runway but it’s up about 40 mph…so I’d certainly expect the later stages of the flight to be bumpy and there may well be some delays.

Just as as a generic comment that applies to all flights over the next 48 hours I think even where/if the weather at an airport is good there’s a potential for some delays down to aircraft possibly getting delayed early in the day of they go into/out of other more weather effected airports.

3luckystars · 01/11/2023 09:34

Thank you for that.

Alicay · 01/11/2023 09:35

Thanks Thundering and Not. Where do I find this detailed aviation report?
Might spend the day going into (the many) churches and praying....

ListenLinda · 01/11/2023 09:45

Hope everyone under the warning areas stays safe and there isn’t too much damage.

Thunderinglightly · 01/11/2023 09:45

@Alicay the windspeeds when I landed at Gatwick were same as those currently forecast and I felt much the same as you. Two podcasts I found particularly helpful. One was one all about the noises that aircraft make from revving up the engines to the landing. The other was chatting to pilots and pointing out that they are real people who do enormous amounts of training to develop their skills, and practise all the worst case scenarios. They have very regular medical checks, and they are just like you in that they too want to get home to their families. If they decide it's safe to fly it's because it is safe to fly 💐

Bluemoonst · 01/11/2023 09:49

What’s everyone doing about walking to school tomorrow? I’m in an Amber area for wind tomorrow (south coast). It’s a short walk but is it going to be safe? I’m not working tomorrow so could easily keep dc off, and strong wind makes me very nervous!

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