Thunderstorm warning Saturday 10th June.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Some areas could see the late spring drought break dramatically on Saturday. Thunderstorms could bring torrential rain, with associated surface flash flooding. Other hazards include hail, lightning and high winds.

A big caveat for those in the warning area though. Many areas may well stay dry. We cannot forecast the exact location of thunderstorms and heavy rain. The risk that they will occur in a region can be flagged, but not exactly where they will crop up.

So, if you are planning an event, stay weather aware and be prepared to change plans as needed.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-06-10

On Sunday, the risk of storms continues, but perhaps not quite as high as Sunday and I think the risk area will shift more eastwards and perhaps northwards.

I think you might be too far east for this round Harridan

Thank you OYBBK. I can always count on your threads for accuracy and honesty and in this case - reassurance!

I'm flying out of Manchester at 9:00 on Saturday.. it looks like the storm will start later in the day, is that correct? I'm very anxious

You're welcome Whu

Dont be anxious Change. These are small scale convective storms, not like a huge autumn wind storm. You should be pretty clear of risk so early in the morning anyway.

@Whu I was in a plane that got struck by lightning coming in to land in Delhi in an absolutely torrential storm. It made a big noise but nothing else.

Good morning all. As posted on the Spring weather thread.

One influence on when and where storms will form tomorrow is how much cloud is around tomorrow morning. As we've seen recently (though the mechanisms are different this time), cloud thickness can be hard to forecast accurately for many reasons.

That cloud and how long it lasts, will have a strong part to play. If it lingers, it will somewhat suppress storms from initiating, especially in the south I think.

We need high surface air temperatures to help break what is known as a cap for storms to initiate. A cap is warm air aloft, preventing air parcels from rising. ie. holding back convection. We will have some cap in place tomorrow. Clear skies help warm that surface air temperature. So it will be all eyes on the skies in the morning. However, it does look likely that storms will eventually generate and when they do, torrential rain looks likely. Some places may be hit by repeated storms.

I love a good storm, just not in the air the forecast says storms start around 5pm in the Manchester area.. so I think I'll be ok.

Weather warning for Sunday issued by the metoffice.

And some thoughts from Netweather on the next few days.

Thanks Gloria. After I'd started the thread, I knew there could be issues with subsequent warnings being issued. I should have been less specific with the title!

It is very possible that more localised amber warnings will be released when thunderstorms start to develop.

Really hoping we have rain in London. My garden is patched atm.

Watching this with absolute terror. I am ridiculously phobic when it comes to thunder and lightning, and have to drive along the affected coastal areas tomorrow for work. Feel physically sick thinking about it...

Happy to chat with you by dm about this if you like Valour.

Weather warning has been removed from my area now - w.Sussex/Surrey border and I love a good storm!
I am plannning on attending the south of England show on Sunday so I will keep an eye on updates.

Been quite a nice day here (Leicester) - got up to 21C but there was quite a strong breeze with it. So we'll see what tomorrow brings in the way of thunderstorms....

We've started off with high cloud here (Leicester) but the sun's beginning to burn through it.
Netweather have issued a Thunderstorm Watch for today.

I LOVE a good storm. But if it could time itself around waterfest so we can enjoy that first I'd be grateful!

We could definitely do with a bit of rain in Essex, my lawn is cracking.

Bother, I was literally just about to hang out a big load of laundry when I saw this. Thanks for the heads up!

Hoping for downpour in aberystwyth which is near me. Massive fire yesterday evening. Would this be caused by climate change, Kitten?
https://www.cambrian-news.co.uk/news/999/fire-breaks-out-in-penglais-woods-above-aberystwyth-6197880

Light rain here in Pembrokeshire.

Oh, poo. The storms will all be in the south . I love a good thunderstorm, me.

We haven't had any rain for weeks in the north east, but we haven't (for a week or so) had the hot and heavy weather that precedes a storm.
I'm very happy with the level of drought here, as it has meant that i've got a week off lawnmowing duties.

Atmospheric conditions looking good on the western side of the country for initiating storms. They look too dry in the SE. As per the met office warnings, I think we are looking mostly at a west Midlands and Wales risk, though central areas may well see some action.

Perhaps some imported overnight storms for the SE.

That's a helpful report. Thanks Freysimo.

Can I make a bit of a plea, for those running outdoor events today. Please keep an eye on forecasts and if storms arrive please ensure that kids are off inflatables etc.