Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Lovely to see all the lurkers!

Keep on keeping on OYBBK 💪💪💪

I'm entirely blown away. I had no idea.

Another lurker identifying myself, not that it’s needed now, to assure you that we are out here listening!

Am loving all of us crawling out from the woodwork to show our appreciation.

Weather is a national pastime here - I often feel a bit like Goldilocks

It’s too hot
It’s too cold
It’s too wet
It’s too windy

I need a day of “it’s just right”!

It’s 14 degrees here on the south coast today! The breeze is warm and I noticed my tree still has most of its leaves AND has buds.

lovely for us, devastating for Nature

Another lurker delurking. Keep up the good work, we love these threads in our house

Your weather threads are brilliant @OhYouBadBadKitten . It's one of the highlights of the up coming Xmas season!

I'm kind of delurking too to say thank you OYBBK. The weather topic is one of my favourite go tos.

Lurker here too - love your analysis OYBBK!! I always know you will give reasoned balanced info and advice.

Another lurker - I watch many long-running threads but also check boards that interest me regularly, including weather! The best stuff rarely makes it on active imho.

Another lurker, in fact I sought out this thread to see if you had any ideas on the possibility of extreme cold/snow in the near future. I follow a few weather people on Twitter who are starting to get excited.

Mainly I just want to know whether to bother buying my child a sled 😂

Another lurker! I love the weather threads and seek them out. I love snow 🤩🌨️

Lurky lurk lurker here too who always wants to know OYBBKs view on the weather and actively looks at the weather forum.

Lurker alert 🚨 love love love these threads babe absolutely no knowledge on the subject but love learning from these threads 😁

@OhYouBadBadKitten I can't see how it won't negatively affect long running threads either.

I'm an in frequent poster but love the weather threads.

Another lurker! Thanks so much OYBBK for all your fascinating posts. Read these threads every year.

I feel really overwhelmed! Thank you!

It looks pretty certain now that we are heading into a cooler more settled regime next week now, with high pressure blocking atlantic lows. I think at the moment we are looking at a change to average early December temperatures. The ? is what happens after that!

There is potential for decently cold weather later on into December but that depends on the shape and location of the high pressure as it builds. We also need some decent cold pooling to happen to the east of us to tap into.

Unfortunately, if that were to happen it would have big ramifications for Ukraine and european gas usage. But I've learned long ago that wishing doesn't change the weather.

In terms of snow. There's nothing showing in the models currently. That's probably the best time to buy a sledge if you have the funds and storage we still have ours in the garage from years ago. dh asked if we should get rid of it a year ago. I put my foot down. I will never be too old for sledging!

Another lurker. Thank you kitten for these brilliant threads.🌺

We love you @OhYouBadBadKitten Thank you! 😃

Netweather's winter forecast has been issued.

And as OYBBK thinks - Netweather says turning colder as we go into December.

OYBBK - you're never too old for sledging!
<gives our sledge another polish>

Aw no snow it seems

Another lurker here: I rely on your threads!

I wouldnt worry too much about whether there is likely to be snow or not yet, as netweather would freely say, these outlooks can and will probably change some as we advance through winter.

I'm a little concerned by the potential of it being quite a cloudy blocked weather system. With no wind and possibly not that much sun, we are going to be relying more heavily on fossil fuels and imported electricity.

I confess to being a lurker. Please don't stop

Another lurker, loved your threads for years OYBBK. Thank you