We need to talk about the Weather and the potential for extreme heat - PART 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread: www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4583720-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat

The old thread was started when models started to introduce model runs with temperatures of 40c several days in advance of when the record breaking heat wave arrived. We chatted about the idea that this has never been seen before in the UK and linked it back to climate change. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts were horrified when these models actually verified and across the UK record breaking temperatures were seen. We spoke about the risks to infrastructure and health.

Weve also talked about the near drought conditions in parts of southern
England and East Anglia.

We discussed comparisons to 1976 and showed that although 1976 was hot for a prolonged period of time and was extremely dry, reaching back into 1975, that the UK was anomalously warm compared to elsewhere. In contrast, the July 22 heat wave happened amongst a background of extreme heat across Europe and elsewhere. In 1976 the highest recorded temperature was 35.9c, this year it was 40.3c

This thread is a continuation of that discussion.

Disclaimer: I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist. As such, please refer to the Met Office for reliable forecasts.

Looking forward, GFS, supported by several members of the GEFS ensembles show the potential for another heatwave from around the 9th August in the south and Midlands. Nothing as extreme as the July heatwave, but instead introduces several days of above 30c heat with some showing temperatures into the mid or high 30s. At the moment, there isn't sufficient model consensus to say that this is a likely outcome. I'm flagging this as a potential scenario, but not yet an actual forecast.

Photos are a couple of stats from the met office with regards to the dry situation in July.

The latest GFS run (12z) keeps the heat until Wednesday and keeps the SE dry until then too. Just need to see where it sits in the ensembles.

And the UKMO takes us back to cooler and heavy showers for Monday.

So who knows what will happen!

I'm betting on I'll turn into a puddle on the floor. Hit 30 in the living room as ds was using the computer. An ice lolly helped. But the effect soon wore off.

🙏🙏🙏 this one is right

I’ve been counting down the days till Monday in hope of some relief from this heat 😩 it actually feels hotter here (SW) than it did the last heatwave. It’s an endurance to get through the day at the minute and not taking much pleasure in anything it’s so damn hot!

It's not fun.
If we are on. UK Holiday by the sea,with air con perhaps ( but then I would be worried about home!)
I'm having to change so many plans even silly things like painting furniture outside!

I think we will keep the heat into Monday, especially, ironically in more northern areas. The exact breakdown is still uncertain and temperatures may be a little slow to come down, with temperatures remaining in the mid to high 20s perhaps for some. (low certainty) I think there could be some decent thunderstorms next week but this comes with an accompanying risk of flash flooding. The ground is baked hard in the drought stricken areas and the water will just run off. So it won't potentially be terribly useful.

The SE is probably at the moment looking like the least likely area to get rain to start with.

If it looks like I'm going to get any rain, I'm going to loosen off the soil in my borders with a garden fork. If rain looks certain, I might prewet my soil round precious plants with a watering can, to help the water soak in.

This video shows the problem with baked dry ground and water soaking in:
twitter.com/UniofReading/status/1557350976725581824

I saw that yesterday, it is a really simple demonstration, very effective.

Power cut where I am at the mo. 😩

So sorry - I posted on the wrong thread! I have reported.

We're on the coast did have a breeze but that's disappeared since Monday. I got up early to our washing out. When I put the second load out the first lot was dry. So I stripped the bed. OH and I have had a disagreement he's volunteered to man the BBQ Saturday night at the club forty people I think he's bonkers I don't even want to go.

He Stopped at Chinese takeaway last night picked up three meals. My order was wrong all I got was burnt noodles, they forgot the meat and vegetables. OH got burnt chicken . He said there were shouts and arguments coming out of the kitchen. Feeling sorry for them

Excellent example. We're in Wales all hilly anticipating flash floods in the usual places

Arse. 27 degrees indoors and the sun is not round yet nor has the boy put on the computer. That bumps up the temperature a couple of degrees.

Tell boy to kindly not. Make sure all curtains or blinds are drawn and windows shut. Put towels in the freezer etc. Drink plenty of fluids.

Can always make a DIY evaporative cooler by placing a shallow tray of water infront of a non-oscillating fan.

ah no @ihatethecold It shows how rapidly complacent we have become about temperatures in the 30s, because of the ridiculously high temperatures in July. I hope it comes back on soon.

I don't know anyone complacent about 30+ because of the 40?

Bit confused.

From what I can see, which might be just my own perception, is that people are trying to carry on as normal, using rail, going out for walks etc. Matches still going ahead, there aren't all the conversations around checking on elderly neighbour's and looking out for signs of heat exhaustion.

Obviously people don't need to stay indoors in quite the same way, but are ignoring the amber heat warning and I think that will have a higher overall health toll.

Take my terrible example. I've given up trying to keep the house cool in the day. I give up. We will just melt into puddles instead. I can't be arsed.

Thanks @OhYouBadBadKitten

still off unfortunately. The heat has caused the fuses to blow at the transformers.
im
sure it will be sorted by this eve.
its 32 degrees here now 🥺

The heat has buggered our tv booster box in the attic 😱
Dh has had to fork out for new one, plus new external aerial - -because ours could apparently be 45-50 years old- - 🥴

Kitten

I don't do media much but that sort of talk is def happening in the little I do see.

In terms of people being out, Londoners are always out in 30+, on the Tube, going running as usual, hanging out in packed beer gardens, doesn't seem any different to me.

I think that's okay, people know what they can do and so many people love this weather. I'd certainly be less annoyed by it if I didn't live in a sauna.

Mum and her elderly friends always tell me not to fuss about it. My late father used to tell me off when I warned him about hot weather.😂

I think this time an issue Is the prolonged nature of it @EmmaH2022 I think this temperature is probably generally ok for many fit and healthy people, but Heat health warnings and amber heat warnings are only issued because there will be a real impact on health and infrastructure. You are right, it's not 40, but there may well be pockets of mid 30s and perhaps slightly higher, some areas outside London will be seeing heat records for their location.

I see that the grid is struggling a little - they've issued a market capacity notice. That means they will be buying in very expensive electricity to cover the short fall.

Oh heck. Not great for bills.

And we're at 30 indoors.

I'll check the outdoor temperature and see if it is worth opening windows to get different air in.. itis not quite the hottest part of the day indoors wise. There is a bit of a lag as the sun comes round onto the windows at 12.20ish.