We need to talk about the Weather and the potential for extreme heat - PART 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread: www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4583720-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat

The old thread was started when models started to introduce model runs with temperatures of 40c several days in advance of when the record breaking heat wave arrived. We chatted about the idea that this has never been seen before in the UK and linked it back to climate change. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts were horrified when these models actually verified and across the UK record breaking temperatures were seen. We spoke about the risks to infrastructure and health.

Weve also talked about the near drought conditions in parts of southern
England and East Anglia.

We discussed comparisons to 1976 and showed that although 1976 was hot for a prolonged period of time and was extremely dry, reaching back into 1975, that the UK was anomalously warm compared to elsewhere. In contrast, the July 22 heat wave happened amongst a background of extreme heat across Europe and elsewhere. In 1976 the highest recorded temperature was 35.9c, this year it was 40.3c

This thread is a continuation of that discussion.

Disclaimer: I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist. As such, please refer to the Met Office for reliable forecasts.

Looking forward, GFS, supported by several members of the GEFS ensembles show the potential for another heatwave from around the 9th August in the south and Midlands. Nothing as extreme as the July heatwave, but instead introduces several days of above 30c heat with some showing temperatures into the mid or high 30s. At the moment, there isn't sufficient model consensus to say that this is a likely outcome. I'm flagging this as a potential scenario, but not yet an actual forecast.

Photos are a couple of stats from the met office with regards to the dry situation in July.

I think the Met Office were more accurate than the BBC during the July heatwave.

I wouldn't soak it if it's dry, there's a risk that you could accelerate the decomposition and therefore actually cause the compost heap to get hotter. Just keep a close eye on it.

Im not sure there will be a red warning @EmmaH2022

Thanks!

It's not technically a proper compost heap, just a mound of grass.
I'll get some watering cans filled up over the next few days and pop them down there.

I’d been keeping an eye on the weather all week, it’s my week of annual leave and thought it would be lovely to have some sunny days.
Took DD to a council run sports activities session in the park today, and I didn’t think it was so hot. But now we are home, I feel so tired and I have a banging headache, when I think about it, we were in the sun from 10.30-2pm. Stupid me.

i’ve now changed my plans for Friday, was doing to do the Dino trail in Leeds but it will be far too hot and sweaty to be trekking around the city centre with a 5yo and a 3yo.

please leave out fresh water for wildlife if you’re not already - thank you! It really is a lifesaver.

@OhYouBadBadKitten do you know how this extreme heat has been affecting the Atlantic water temperature? The heat of the water has a direct bearing on the likelihood of hurricanes forming and the strength of them - is that right?

I watch some American YouTubers re the Hurricane season - which has yet to get going! I didn't know that plumes of dust from the African desert suppress storm formation (that's where tropical storm waves start, in the air coming off Africa and moving across the Atlantic towards the US). But the season is now starting to show signs of disturbances developing as the dust plumes subside. Apparently the Gulf of Mexico's waters are very hot now, so ideal for cooking up hurricanes, if any of the tropical 'waves' or disturbances actually get that far, they haven't as yet.

This year's hurricane season is forecast to be a bit above average in the number of named storms, we are reaching the 'peak months' of August through October. I tend to look at NOAA's site for the latest on any storms, but so far, not a lot to see!

www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The huge high pressure area over much of the Atlantic has sort of stalled our weather pattern so that we are stuck under this hot air, the jet stream seems a bit weak in our region, don't know why that is. Weather is fascinating stuff!

@CrunchyCarrot summarised it very well :)

Thanks Crunchy

balls.

So
high confidence of the heat remaining through the weekend.
Moderate/lower confidence of the heat breaking down early next week.

Both GEFS and ECM row back on the breakdown overnight. In fact, GFS shows 9 days of 30+ heat in a row for some from today.
Let's hope this isn't a trend, but it's still nearly a week away.

UKMO also pulls back on the breakdown! I don't actually know what to say!

Looking to be 33° on Sunday and we have a football match! If we stay on an amber warning it will go ahead with water breaks, if it goes to red it will be cancelled.

Not looking forward to it ☹️

Certainly doesn't look like much in the way of rain relief for the parched South.

Us too. In thermal underlayer and padded trousers as the goalie but at least not running round as much.

Got the flat down to 26.5 degrees last night. Gives me a 1.5 degree gap of comfortable temperature. With several days to go.

Ive just been around and closed all windows and put blankets up at the windows that don’t have thermal curtains. I’m about to send DH up onto the roof to cover the roof lantern. It’s 8square metres and lets in a lot of heat

I am in Leeds - not the centre but countryside. There is actual air!

Hopefully hotel air con will be decent.

😱

Thank you for organising this. Your heroism could save the country.
I might organise a beach trip.

My forecast (Herts) for next week has changed and is looking dryer. I'm pretty keen for a few days of rainy spells - the fields around here are tinder dry.

Im not sure that red means stop, amber means go ahead with extra water is entirely how the met office meant for their weather warning system to be used!

Latest GFS also prolongs the heat.

No no no no no. No. Come on weather, be a good sport now. We need our cooldown next week. We're not having this

Oh heck at the possibility of a prolonged period of heat.

Quite a difference between my met app and the bbc app for my area. Almost 4 degrees higher for the BBC.

I do sympathise! I went through the hot flushes some years ago and it was during a hot summer in a portacabin with no insulation! Absolutely dreadful. Thankfully now not flushing anymore, I found wheat is my trigger so avoid it. However I don't cope well with heat now due to hypothyroidism and find it knocks me sideways

Thanks.🙂 I can definitely sympathise with regard to the portacabin! We had the coldest winters in that thing and once the heating broke down so we had to have a constant flow of hot drinks to keep warm. I can't remember very hot summers in it though but imagine that wasn't pleasant with the flushes to contend with.