We need to talk about the Weather and the potential for extreme heat - PART 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread: www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4583720-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat

The old thread was started when models started to introduce model runs with temperatures of 40c several days in advance of when the record breaking heat wave arrived. We chatted about the idea that this has never been seen before in the UK and linked it back to climate change. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts were horrified when these models actually verified and across the UK record breaking temperatures were seen. We spoke about the risks to infrastructure and health.

Weve also talked about the near drought conditions in parts of southern
England and East Anglia.

We discussed comparisons to 1976 and showed that although 1976 was hot for a prolonged period of time and was extremely dry, reaching back into 1975, that the UK was anomalously warm compared to elsewhere. In contrast, the July 22 heat wave happened amongst a background of extreme heat across Europe and elsewhere. In 1976 the highest recorded temperature was 35.9c, this year it was 40.3c

This thread is a continuation of that discussion.

Disclaimer: I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist. As such, please refer to the Met Office for reliable forecasts.

Looking forward, GFS, supported by several members of the GEFS ensembles show the potential for another heatwave from around the 9th August in the south and Midlands. Nothing as extreme as the July heatwave, but instead introduces several days of above 30c heat with some showing temperatures into the mid or high 30s. At the moment, there isn't sufficient model consensus to say that this is a likely outcome. I'm flagging this as a potential scenario, but not yet an actual forecast.

Photos are a couple of stats from the met office with regards to the dry situation in July.

Rayne yes, don't attack the poor wee thing with floss.

a cat, how exciting 😍 is it a kitten?

Rayne the warnings make it look like widespread issues, but the reality is, that many wont get any.

Keep an eye on Tuesday though.

My current remedy is coke with a slice of lemon and a bag of salty crisps. Wet towel draped around me. Needed a plaster after slicing my thumb as well as the lemon. Woe.

It's Dorset way we are heading.

Poor thumb,any injuries seem exemplified in heat or cold..

Poor thumb,any injuries seem exemplified in heat or cold..

Ouch! Hope it heals fast! Just imagine what it would be like in A&E on a day like today, people must be melting.

We're not officially "drought" but have a hosepipe ban starting 26th August (North Yorkshire).

Oh no Kitten is it okay?

I found butterfly plasters good after I did mine in with a craft knife.

flat is 32 with air con unit on. Have retreated to bathroom - seriously. Not the first time. It's the only bit of the flat with no windows, and facing the corridor.

i think I am going to set my alarm early to get stuff done at the weekend before the heat makes it impossible.

It's alright thanks, stuck a plaster on it.

3 more days, we can do this!

Oh NO cut thumb is not nice!

Sleeping outside sounds amazing, I am tempted but my back can't cope with the camping mat any more, boo!

We were chatting about this at teatime, EmmaH2022 and are going to the farm shop early doors tomorrow instead of lazing til mid morning with the papers before ambling out; we will do the hoovering/laundry blah blah after getting up at stupid o'clock but before shower. Then we can shelter indoors, desultorily sucking on cherries and watching rubbish on the telly.

I've taken to sitting in the shade in the garden all day - probably high twenties in the afternoon but the grass is cool and it feels nicer than being inside and means I'm not warming up the house. Although I'm actually now feeling a bit chilly so had to put a cardigan on! (Think it's 25 degrees but with a breeze...)

I would pay to have 25 and a breeze and a garden.

@EmmaH2022 I guess I live further north than you... (I'm in South Yorkshire - the red warning last time didn't even cover us and then it was 38 in the shade!)

It was warmer earlier in the day, currently 25 in the shade (sun is below the horizon so all is in shade). Think it just hit 30 earlier in the late afternoon.

I just got back from Leeds, trust me, London is another world temp wise.

I have no desire to ever live in London! I like living in the colder, cheaper north ☺️

i didnt even go to the beach today, i have been 3 times this week, it was glorious
but my garden was beautifully shady at 4 pm

I quite liked my few years stint in London before I moved back North. I appreciate not sweating my arse off all summer but it's too cold and dark for too long in the winter. I'm not sure where the sweet spot is along the A1 but it must be there somewhere.

I've no desire to live here but currently stuck due to elderly mother.

I was expecting Leeds to be much busier because I am used to seeing such crazy volumes of people. A lovely worker in the art gallery told me it was about as busy as usual and I couldn't believe it.

now, speaking of art, I am not normally a fan of autumn or winter - but I would happily live in an autumnal scene by Grimshaw right now.

Two homes. Coupled with a MUCH lower population, it would be brilliant! And climate worries would reduce so much!

I am not sure how different London will feel by Monday. Maybe by Wednesday?

as it's still only August, I fear more heatwaves 😭

I usually like winter, love watching the snow fall although less keen on the subsequent ice - best snow is where it suddenly warms up after so it doesn't refreeze and become slippy. I don't mind the long dark nights, I like feeling cosy and safe inside with the night outside.

Side bar
the last couple of summers, every night features a child with an ear splitting high pitched screech, from the flats opposite. The parents let her run about on the pavement all evening.

I nearly said something once but they were sitting on the wall watching her, but looking like they wanted to cry, die, or possibly both. I mean that really utterly defeated look.

so I am just grateful she's not next door or something. But summer noise round here is just a nightmare. Can't wait to close windows!

And now...we have fireworks.

very close as I can smell them.

Good grief 🙄🙄🙄

Emma fhat is ridiculous!
Someone let something off around here earlier.
Where are the public announcement stuff?

I'm dreading tomorrow!

I have to say we have been. Lucky with putting Sheets up etc it's really helped.
That's only because of cooler nights.
The top of the house is heating up a lot day on Day however...I'm eternally grateful for the Sheets at windows and shut windows trick!

I've never felt so comfortable in this house on heat.

It's so hot. My house has been over 31 degrees all day and now just dropping to 30. This is ridiculous.
I'm near Cardiff and it seems to be hotter this time than the last one.

Seen the smoke from a crop fire today as I was traveling. Also reports on the news.

Been in a cool house today instead of a hot flat. But also in a hot town and hot walk outdoors. It got up to 32 on the max min thermometer here. Flat currently 30 but I have opened the windows now.

Dc is very meltdowny today.

I went to the cinema yesterday it was lovely and cool. A small screening so although it was full it was still a comfortable temperature.