We need to talk about the Weather and the potential for extreme heat - PART 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread: www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4583720-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat

The old thread was started when models started to introduce model runs with temperatures of 40c several days in advance of when the record breaking heat wave arrived. We chatted about the idea that this has never been seen before in the UK and linked it back to climate change. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts were horrified when these models actually verified and across the UK record breaking temperatures were seen. We spoke about the risks to infrastructure and health.

Weve also talked about the near drought conditions in parts of southern
England and East Anglia.

We discussed comparisons to 1976 and showed that although 1976 was hot for a prolonged period of time and was extremely dry, reaching back into 1975, that the UK was anomalously warm compared to elsewhere. In contrast, the July 22 heat wave happened amongst a background of extreme heat across Europe and elsewhere. In 1976 the highest recorded temperature was 35.9c, this year it was 40.3c

This thread is a continuation of that discussion.

Disclaimer: I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist. As such, please refer to the Met Office for reliable forecasts.

Looking forward, GFS, supported by several members of the GEFS ensembles show the potential for another heatwave from around the 9th August in the south and Midlands. Nothing as extreme as the July heatwave, but instead introduces several days of above 30c heat with some showing temperatures into the mid or high 30s. At the moment, there isn't sufficient model consensus to say that this is a likely outcome. I'm flagging this as a potential scenario, but not yet an actual forecast.

Photos are a couple of stats from the met office with regards to the dry situation in July.

Definitely should ban all BBQs currently, and do a big information push on fag ends glass bottles etc.

We had a dipstick flicking fag ash out of a window.

I'll be on the tube tomorrow as meeting friends in Covent garden for lunch. Kind of wish we weren't but at least we won't be in rush hour. Slightly annoyed as we are away next week to IOW and have seen forecast of rain almost every day. Would have been so nice there this week instead.

It's strange one would think the fire bridgade are going mad? We've had police issues a safety notice about kid's deliberately starting fire's?

One issue with the internet is that it's all scattered...odd Facebook site's dripping out odd bits of information that not everyone will see
Probably need text's... public information text..for next X days until rain don't do X.

Grandchildren threw Tupperware boxes of water over me in the garden this afternoon I was soaked through. Fully dressed I was still comfortably damp this evening bliss

That's a very striking and rather worrying image!

I feel for all of you further south. Got up to 28C in Edinburgh and St Andrew's, where I was visiting family and arsing around, snorkeling in the bluest North sea I've ever seen.
But there's been a bit of a breeze most of the day and last night the temperature went down to 11C.

Are we really going to get thunder when the heat breaks?

They’ve vanished from the forecast, so I suppose not, but there’s still rain for Mon/Tuesday. The rain didn’t happen at end of last heat spike, so wondering if this will be fugitive too.

Even some of my well-established larger shrubs are beginning to look a bit heat stressed. Also hoping the Jubilee tree planted at my Mum’s is surviving

Thankfully it does look like the weather will break early next week, but it won't necessarily be a thundery breakdown. You need humid air for that and that doesn't look to be the case. There will be some showers, but not really any thing that would be enough. So when a drought is declared (today?) try not to be too derisory about it if you then catch some showers next week.

Fucking hell it's hot. Just walked into town. We definitely need more trees in town. All slabs and concrete.

I've been really worried about my cat, she's a Main Coon with an incredibly thick and fluffy coat. I never see her drink and she just sniffs at her cooking mat and wanders off.

Couldn't find her last night, eventually tracked her down to the hottest part of the house (three story town house type thing) on the top floor by the airing cupboard where all the heat gathers. She was quite happy with her head hanging over the edge and wouldn't move. I even got a scratch for my efforts 🤣 have stopped worrying so much about her now.

Met Office disagree with me
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-08-15 Thunderstorm warnings out for Monday.

My mai. concern round this would be around the flash flooding potential.

Note that warnings for NI and Scotland actually start on Sunday.

Is that warning for today?

Oh Monday, sorry

32.7c now in North Wales no breeze. Dog and I indoors with fan going 22c so bearable.

We get awful flash floods because of the hills behind us in this area. I recall Llandudno being under water, abergele, towyn, Kimmel bay.

Full moon, big tides, drains exploding created the perfect conditions for run off from the hills . It's a full moon tonight so I'm relieved the rain will hold off for a few days.

It is hot, skin prickles the second you step outdoors. Far too hot to sit outside even under a canopy, Another 3 days before the temperature begins to fall back to normal.
Through the window it looks like a perfect sunny day, the sky cloudless and a deep azure blue.
Step out and feel the heat of the Devil's kitchen
Today is beyond weird. There's a touch of unworldliness in the heated atmosphere. Like flying too close to the sun

description yesterday of a friend living in Brittany

black glass bottles and vases on sunny windowsills fill me with horror.

Heat Health warning extended to cover Monday day and Monday night into Tuesday 9am

Drought declared for 8 more regions. Any rain next week - even if you catch a biblical storm, will not change that.

But one upside - clear skies tonight means that the peak of the Perseid meteor shower will be visible, just try to ignore the near full moon blocking them out some,

poo drought map image was too big. (why?) so cropped it

I love your work, Kitten, but I have no interest in maps about poo!

it's starting to feel really grim in here, despite my attempts at mind over matter. And it's only 1pm

the hotel air con was excellently done. Very gentle. Maybe I'll start an Air Condition Britain movement, starting with hospitals.

Where did my punctuation go? though with all the sewage contamination it may as well be a poo map!

Ive had an idea for tonight. I'm going to see if it's possible to put my tent up without the fly sheet so I can sleep outside without being bitten to death.

Official statement - I'm too hot.

Kitten if I had a garden to sleep in, I totally would. Try it!

it's a struggle isn't it. Got a headache now, but so has half the country I expect!

I'm supposed to be collecting a cat on Monday,it was put off from Saturday due to heat and now I'm bloody worried about flash flossing!!

Sorry, not flossing , 😂 flooding.