We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

Thank you :)

I dont think your neighbour had a leg to stand on. The neighbour at the back hates our trees on the boundary and has caused a stink over the years. We ignore her. Have them trimmed every few years and crack on. Unless she cane to us with proof of structural damage then she could send as many solicitors letters as she fancies. Her money outlay.

Hottest model run here in France too, 46/47⁰ ☹

In terms of a Stevenson screen, if you have a digital thermometer that sends readings back via internet/blue tooth then something like this
www.amazon.co.uk/Crosse-Technology-925-1418-Sensor-Protection/dp/B00VSXENM4/ref=sr_1_28?crid=21XQ4ADGMNINX&keywords=stevenson+screen&qid=1657386595&s=outdoors&sprefix=stevenso%2Coutdoor%2C66&sr=1-28 but make sure it fits your thermometer!

For those who don't want to spend any money or can't afford to, (any other meteorologists look away at this suggestion!) I did manage to use a polystyrene box of the sort that electronics get sent in with vents cut into it with reasonable effect when I was just starting out.

If you have a nice thermometer that you actually want to see, then place it in the shade and preferably mounted off the wall a little bit so airflow can get behind it and accept that it gives the best temperature possible given the circumstances. Just don't put it in the sun!!!

Watch internal thermometers too, it's really easy for sun to creep round and give ridiculous temperatures when the sun hits it.

Oh I’m so glad I found this thread! I posted on chat about how likely the really scary temperatures next weekend were and someone signposted me here.

@OhYouBadBadKitten - can I ask ( and I know it’s a guess!) but is it pretty likely we will get at least mid 30s in London next weekend? Just thinking it’s going to be awful after what will already have been a pretty hot week. I’m on Twitter and some of the tweets are quite alarming!

Am half thinking of heading north for the weekend ( if I didn’t think the train tracks will probably buckle).

The GFS model has just returned an even more awful scenario for next weekend, with two days being shown above 40c. So I expect newspapers headlines will be off the scale. It is still very unlikely to be that extreme and ensembles show a wide spread of solutions.

Thank you for the knowledgable posts @OhYouBadBadKitten .

Going to start praying the cooler predictions are correct!

Tiggertum, I think it's important to put those tweets into context. I think there is some alarm around the charts being thrown up, mixed with curiosity as to why they are showing something never been shown before and also, a great deal of scepticism that they will come off. There are a great deal of solutions showing something different. But, I think it fairly likely that temperatures will bounce back above 30c

Even in the south, the railway seems to start having failures once temperatures get into the high 20s. You would be right to be concerned about the resilience of the network.
www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/looking-after-the-railway/delays-explained/buckled-rail-and-summer-heat/

Me too! very, very much so.

My stepdad put a thermometer in the roof of a birdbath. Picture it as a normal birdbath but with a wooden roof, under that roof was the thermometer. That way it got airflow but also shade. Not perfect but an improvised solution.

I'm going to the theatre in London next weekend. Arriving in London at 10am and I think we'll head to an art gallery for the aircon!!

Some useful London hot weather travel links :)
www.mylondon.news/weather/london-weather-map-shows-london-24173688
content.tfl.gov.uk/walking-tube-map.pdf

Hiya Kitten, my facebook buddy group sent me this link, as always you are explaining really complex stuff for dummies like me, thank you. Hadn't realised the great MN switchover a while back had knocked The Weather off my topics list.

Hey Flibberty , good to see you've found Weather again! I'm still learning all the time.

Thumbs up!

completely misses the point of the thread but I read that as your Ddog is guinea pig sitting 😅

I've been popping in to the model output discussion on netweather. @OhYouBadBadKitten At what point/ how far out do you think the crazy GFS charts would be considered a likely scenario?

I live in Cambridge so after the last temp record was broken here I'm a bit twitchy. I've one child with special needs and if 40 degrees is looking likely on the Monday I think I'd better keep him at home, he'll go into the ultimate meltdown.

I'm not sure I can answer that Caramac without a lot of hand wavy guessing. It depends on how far north the extreme hot hair pushes up through Europe and on the positioning of low pressure to the SW.

What I can see in todays models, is that GFS and the GEFS ensembles back down peak temperatures to the low 30s but ECM pushes the temperatures up to the mid to high 30s.

I've made a bit of an error, GFS does show temperatures in the high 30s on Sunday, but limits them to the SE, with wider spread temperatures in the mid 30s. Sorry!

I also have one of my DC with SEN Caramac. Tbh though if it is high 30s I don’t think any of my kids would be going into school!

OK @OhYouBadBadKitten thank you. I'll keep an eye on forecasts and that forum. I find it all fascinating but I'm never sure who's opinions hold weight in there and who is after a reaction!

@Tiggertum yes I've got one who is meant to be doing activities week D of E hiking and campfires, but the one I'm worried about is autistic. He's not very good at recognising what his body is trying to tell him (hunger/temperature etc). I might phone him in sick and park him on the sofa with his Brian Cox dvds and a fan for company!

If the latest GFS model run came off, I'm not sure whether anyone would've going into to school It's utterly, utterly insane and I don't actually believe it at all. It gives parts of the south 3 days, sun-tues of 40+c Including this ridiculous chart shown for Mon/Tues midnight. Once again, in the ensembles this is an outlier run and extremely unlikely to come off to this extent.

ECM isn't as nuts, but gives us prolonged high heat instead.

A reminder of the heat health plan. If you care for elderly people or young children, you should read this and take note.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1074023/Heatwave_Plan_for_Engand_2022_May-2022-v2.pdf

I think it’s the length of the high temperatures that are going to make this week and next very difficult! I can always manage if psychologically know it’s only a few days - but in London the heat will just build and build. Going to be very sticky!

Thanks so much for this great thread @OhYouBadBadKitten

I'm waiting to hear whether my son's sports day will be cancelled, it's on Tuesday where they're predicting around 33 degrees. I'm wondering whether I would get in trouble if I keep him home if they don't cancel? He is super fair and even with sunscreen would burn very quickly.

Also a question for the home cooling experts : ) I know you're supposed to keep the windows and curtains closed during the day but honestly it just feels a million times worse when I do this, is it just psychological on my part? We live in a very windy area so I feel like at least we get some breeze with the windows open.

Can I just close the curtains and windows at those times when we get direct sun in? Does it really have to be all day to help?

(I used to live in a very hot area but everything was air conditioned so I'm clueless!)