We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

Hmm I wonder whether i should drive into London next sun so at least I have aircon and I'm a bit worried about train chaos.

We also have sports day this week!

@stillherenow Will you send your DC in if it is indeed this hot?

Ours isn't even at the school, it's at a separate playing field with no shade anywhere. DS will be absolutely roasted.

Mine is 14 so I'll let her make the choice. I think she will, I've always found schools quite sensible with weather

Stupid question but is driving better than rail in high heat ? I know train tracks buckle- but presumably cars can overheat ?

I can't really say (I don't drive) but as a Londoner I have already been caught up in several train meltdowns during high heat this summer. Morning is fine, evening rush hour a nightmare with cancelled and delayed trains. So maybe ok as long as you leave a bit earlier?

I wouldn't want to be stuck in a car for hours if there's an accident or road blockage though

My mum used to keep me off if it was sports day like that
I'm a pale redhead and even without burning I would be wilting with no shade and they wouldn't let us inside

I wouldn't start changing plans for next Sunday onwards just yet, personally, I have a back up plan in my head ready to implement should I need it.

@dreamingbohemian if you've got meaningful breeze, I'd prioritise that with sun facing curtains closed.

Oh great, thanks @OhYouBadBadKitten !

I'm glad I'm not the only mum who worries about this @MsOllie
Wilting is exactly what my son and I both do!
I'll wait and see what the school says, they are usually pretty good about these things but obviously it's a huge shame to cancel after not having it for 2 years

The german weather model ICON also now shows 41C for next Sunday. If people think today feels hot, that is about another 11 degrees up from where we are. Think of the diffence between how a day when we have 0c feels and the difference when that warms up to 11c.

This still isn't a forecast. It's a 'possiblecast' (new word invented)

Baking here in 30 degrees today. I experienced 40 degrees in Africa. It's like walking around in an oven. Awful. But our high humidity makes 30s much harder to cope with. Due to be at family bbq in south east next Sat, so fingers crossed it calms down!

😂

This put me in mind of a tweet I saw last year about a Scottish heatwave

OYBBK do you mean in U.K. or Germany?

That's me I'm actually doing an extra injection this week (I'm allergic to heat and come out in hives...)

What difference does humidity make? I think it is something to do with how much water vapour is in the air, which holds the heat - is that right? So a high humidity feels warmer than the same temp with a low humidity... is it something like that?

I remember this! I might have replied in sympathy.

I experienced 40+ once in Central Asia, no air con, I literally felt like my brain was melting.

I've had 40+ in a tent or outdoors in the Outback

but it was bone dry heat. I was like a walking oven, according to my travel companion, but I felt okay.

humidity though - ugh. Had 30c and 90% humidity in Miami. Had to stay indoors with air con mostly. Like breathing butter. But still saw joggers happily doing their thing.

In the UK

Because we cool by sweat evaporating, the higher the humidity, the less our sweat can evaporate.

Is that why I only seem to sweat when it's humid then?

It hit 44 in Madrid yesterday where I am. It has still been 30 at midnight. It isn’t pleasant but it is bearable. It’s a dry heat which doesn’t feel as bad as a humid 30.

it is a massive concern, the lack of water.

I was okay in 42 in South Africa. I was bit slow moving and very inclined to hide in the shade but it was survivable. I find 23 in Ireland a bit difficult though!

I think that when it isn't very humid we don't notice the sweat, because it evaporates from us quickly, but when it is humid and can't evaporate quickly, it then pools on our skin/clothes. When I've been in very hot, dry environments, the only way I've noticed I've been sweating is by the salt residue that's left.