We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I’m sitting in Shetland wearing a jumper, it’s 10degrees………

However, I do think as a country we need to seriously look at our water consumption as individuals and businesses and the infrastructure. The amount that’s wasted through leaky pipes etc. is shocking.

We've just had a water meter fitted which is definitely concentrating our minds as far as water usage habits are concerned - we haven't had a bill yet to see how it compares to unmetered billing. We now have 3 water butts collecting water off the shed roof to use in the garden, wash the car, clean windows, our showers are about 4 minutes long and we use tap run off waiting for hot water to come through to water plants, mop floors etc.

Our neighbours spent all Tuesday morning power washing their drive - obviously not on a water meter and it does make us despair slightly - we're trying our best but it feels like it's a bit of a pointless exercise.

Sadly, it's the future and we need to get used to it. I'm in northern France and it's 32 here today, the (usually pretty accurate) local forecast has it rising steadily over the next few days and hitting 40 by Wednesday. I hate anything above 30, but local councils do try and help - there is a plan in place to check on vulnerable people, things are cancelled (school trips/outisde events etc) the mayors office send out suggestions as to how to cope etc, and pretty much the whole population goes to the beach. We have to adapt.

I think we'll see ceiling fans making a come back at some point. Hopefully with some sleek, modern and chic designs because the old style are still ugly.

Even better if they're designed to be solar powered so you can make the most of the solar energy in a heatwave!

I also wonder if eventually we'll see green roofs for houses take off, they provide a good heat shield for the building and used to be common India I believe (well, roof gardens did - same principle).

Planting deciduous trees near windows also has temperature control. When in leaf, the tree should block the sun from hitting the window and heating the interior, but the bare branches in winter will still allow the lower winter light through.

Also, although it's considered more as a preventative for flash flooding, not fully paving or tarmacing driveways and gardens will also help. A green lawn (doesn't have to be grass, lots of low maintenance alternatives) will be much cooler than hard landscaping. Having a drive way that is only paved as much as it needs to be will also make a difference.

My instincts tell me that if we planted a tree or two for every person on the planet, we could avoid some of this pain and suffering of the human race. But it's just a theory.
@BloodyHellKen why are blackout blinds the work of the devil?

I'm very concerned about global warming and over population of the planet. Things are only going to get worse. But as a short term measure, if anyone is concerned about intense heat, come move to Lancashire. 🌧

At the risk of betraying my own gardening and house structure ignorance all at the same time, wouldn't planting trees near windows jeapordise the foundations?

Just waiting for the latest model run to come through fully on the viewer I use (netweather.tv) should be through soon, but the general gist is that we have lots of very warm-hot to come through into the middle part of next week, after that, the early thoughts are perhaps a bit of a cool down before the potential for a very hot pool of air to develop. It's still too early to call what will happen though.

In the mean time here is the met office heatwave alert - currently at Level 3.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal

In terms of adaptations - schools have got to get smarter with sports days. Locally our weather touched around 29c today. I went past a school having sports day at a local sports arena. No shade, no hats, young kids. It's just not that sensible really.

I’d say you’re mostly right - a tree is a great carbon storage device - but it’s more complicated than that. It does have to be the right tree and right place.

For one thing, dark trees replacing lighter grass or scrub or snow lands will reduce the planet’s albedo - that is, soak up more of the sunlight rather than reflecting it. Solid monoculture blocks of dark foreign conifer aren’t a great plan.

For another, trees can reduce the breeze blowing through a town and allow hot, polluted air to remain trapped.

And some trees actually pollute. They emit their own nice little fug of unwanted chemicals.

But generally, yes please to more trees.

Oof, the latest GFS model run has some pretty grim temperatures for the first part of the week. I think it might be overdoing the temperatures by a couple of degrees or so though. I'm posting the charts, but mentally, I'd take a couple or so degrees off at present (I think, don't hold me to that)

Tomorrow does look a little cooler, where it's been very warm today, but on Sunday things start to pick up again and early next week to Wednesday look very hot..

What will be noticeable and make things more challenging for people to cope is that the night temperatures will also be high, with widespread potential for tropical nights. A tropical night is defined when the temperature doesn't go below 20C. So there will be little relief.

I think met reports are very SE centric. 🙄 I'm pretty sure if it were raining in the SE and frying eggs on pavements in the North, we'd only be hearing about potential floods.

Been reading this thread with interest (thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten ) and wanted to chime in with a) this is not alarmist, it’s real and happening now and is definitely caused by and massively accelerated by humans (last IPCC reports put the science to bed on that), but also b) what can we actually do?

Firstly of course governments have to act to restrain corporations, mostly oil and gas producers, but also other polluters like by -products of fossil fuels like plastics and fertilisers. Vote for local and National candidates who at least acknowledge climate change and have policies to tackle it.

But it can be discouraging to think everything is in the hands of far away MPs and there ARE things everyone can do -
Don’t fly, or fly less
Don’t drive a petrol/ diesel car, or drive less (walk or train or bus or cycle according to ability, even if substituting just one or two trips a week)
Maybe downsize the car - very few people outside of rural areas actually need an SUV
In the winter, follow all the money saving tips for reducing heating etc which will also use less energy overall
if you can, consider installing solar/ heat pumps etc
if you can, switch to an all renewable energy tariff (obviously affordability is still an issue) - also one in the eye for Putin
If you have a garden, as others have said, grow a long grass/ wildflower lawn, plant a tree, grow some of your own food
Look at your finances and take investments or pension funds away from tracker funds that invest in fossil fuels
Bank with an ethical bank like the Co-op or Triodos or others - the high street banks will invest your money in fossil fuels
Stop eating meat, or eat less meat (this has a direct impact as most livestock are fed feed crops that are grown on deforested land or land which could be given back to nature and could soak up carbon)
Ditto dairy - even a small reduction helps
Campaign/ protest if you can, to raise awareness - if you are ok with new protest laws

Most of us can do at least one of these and it doesn’t have to be absolute - you don’t have to go vegan but dropping meat one day a week, at population scale, would make a difference, for example.

Of course this takes time to have any effect but if everyone did something we’d be in a much better place.

Hope that helps something feel do-able and possible. I’m no expert, just an ordinary concerned person who does a lot of reading.

It doesn't need to be directly outside, just able to shield the window from summer sun.
Lots of trees are safe to plant in the vicinity of buildings as well.

I've been worrying about climate change for 30+ years, and it really troubles me that we're saying the same things now that were being said when I was a teenager, and our parents' generation, but nothing tangible has changed.
I made one of my occasional forays onto twitter recently, and was surprised to see Neil Oliver mocking climate change predictions, and saying it's a scam (I'm paraphrasing) but I'd really like to believe it so that I can kick up my heels and live guilt-free...

What I don't understand is this - everywhere you look in the UK right now, new houses are being built - why doesn't every single new build have to be built to the highest environmental spec appropriate to the area, rather than relying on the buyer to retro fit? Well, obviously, I do understand, it's because of greed and profit, but it would be lovely if our government cared about stuff like this 😔

@AwlAtSea I wish I knew :(

I am currently really bloody angry quite cross with my neighbour, who two weeks ago threatened me with the council, his insurers, and legal action unless I took down a small silver birch tree in my garden that he reckoned was too close to his boundary. So I had no alternative but to remove it. About 12 feet tall and trunk as thick as your wrist, so not a big tree by any means. We are really going to miss its shade over the next week - it was the only shade our west-facing garden got. So much for planting trees and saving the planet.

Blimey I've got a huge silver birch right by my house and on the border that my neighbours hate, but I've ignored them, it's lovely. And yes gives much needed shade over my patio - so I can see why you're annoyed !

Awlatsea, yup, don't understand why every single building, whether home, factory etc built over the last ten years (or more) hasn't been required to include a renewable function, whether solar, wind, ground heat source. Madness.

There's another great article by the met office here about the current heatwave and how it may evolve over the next week.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/heatwave-on-the-way

Thanks this thread is really interesting. I'm in London and have noticed that it has barely rained all year so far.

UKV (met office high resolution, short term model) predicted temperatures for today. In local spots, depending on conditions, temperatures may be a couple of degrees or so above this. And remember it's only a model, it's not god.

Quick note on measuring temperatures: If you put a thermometer in the sun, it will record ludicrous temperatures. Those are not a reflection of the air temperature, they are a reflection of how much heat the thermometer can physically hold : things get hot in the sun! So beware false reports. Car thermometers can provide similar erroneous temperatures. The only way to measure air temperature correctly is with a properly shielded thermometer.

Getting married next weekend. I’m going to roast!

@OhYouBadBadKitten hoe do you properly shield/place a thermometer for recording outside temperatures? Where should there go?

I'll come back later 007 as Im out but you need something like a Stevenson screen, which allows airflow through.

This won't happen, its nuts, but it is the hottest model run ever recorded for the UK.

I suppose I can't say won't happen, but the probability is very low.