We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

So how do I feel as it starts to cool down a little this evening?

In shock a bit really. We thought the GFS model was showing a theoretical possibility. It wasn't it happened.

People on various threads on mn accused us of scaremongering. We werent. We will only being to understand the actual impact over the next few days and weeks as things come to light and are calculated.

We have numerous wildfires, not only across London, but across many other areas. Peoples homes are burning.

The railway lines have buckled, overhead lines have sagged and the trains won't be back to normal tomorrow, there will be a lot of testing and repair work needed.

Roads have melted in many places.

The electrical grid has failed in places. At 2pm today, Northern Powergrid reported 14,000 homes without electricity due to the heat. Other network operators have also reported power failures.

We don't know the cost to lives yet, apart from the children who have tragically drowned. That very sad calaculation will be done over coming time.

This is just two days worth of extreme temperatures. Unless we make drastic changes to our infrastructure so we can cope and reduce carbon use to net zero across the globe this will become our summer reality.

So to all the 1976'ers, those in denial and those who troll for fun. Open your eyes and see what is coming. This isn't a game.

☝️ x a million.

Climate scientist on Sky News now "this is something I didn't think I'd see for a couple of decades".

This isn't a game.

I fear that our consumerist western response will be to buy more, spend on comfort, make it worse

yes.

OYBBK, thank you for your clear and concise forecasting information over the last few days, it's been appreciated.

If this episode hasn't woken people up to the dangers of climate change and shaken them into action, I despair that anything will.

Massive woodland and grass fire near us in the East Midlands. Major incident declared and an appeal has gone out for anyone with horse boxes who can help with evacuation of large number of horses in neighbouring fields.

You are very welcome @darlingdodo

How frightening @Notanormalsummer I hope people are able to respond quickly.

@OhYouBadBadKitten just seen update that all horses have been evacuated thankfully. Hate to think how much wildlife has been killed though.

Yet I read that one of the Kardashian family used her private jet for a 40 mile journey, which took 3 minutes.
She proudly posted her images on SM.
This never ending consumption and use of fossil fuels with no regard is insane, yet touted as a badge of success by many.

This is happening, today in the U.K.

twitter.com/efendatv/status/1549399549462077445?s=21&t=0-VqarPXtff9sb2kVuwtdA

Screenshot for those not on Twitter

We have RAIN!!! (Chilterns) Temp dropped 4 degrees over 10 mins now 26. Was 40 at 4pm.

Dont think I've ever been so grateful.

Fires near my brother in Cambridgeshire.

Where is he?
im in Cambridgeshire and have heard fire engines.

I am not far from you colouring and it's still boiling hot. Wildfire in local village.

He's in St Neots

I'm in Chilterns. I can smell smoke, according to my dd I'm imagining it.

Another power cut here, off for ten hours Friday night Saturday morning. Got up to put the kettle on and we have another powercut today. Apparently it went off an hour ago and they are hoping to get it back on later this morning. Fingers crossed.

I had to clamber over DHs junk in the garage to check it wasn't a fuse gone, couldn't believe it was another power cut. It is very hot here already and I want a cup of tea.

Posted this on the red warning thread.
Im still catching up with what happened yesterday but the list of firebrigades that had to declare major incidents really jumped out at me. It was hot pretty much everywhere. But look where the major incidents were declared - the counties where temperatures were hottest in the country.

I expect that part of this was that those areas in general have been very dry for months. But there are plenty of counties with similar rainfall anomalies. So a very simplistic analysis suggests that the last two days of extreme heat in those areas had something to do with it.

That's not to say that other counties didn't have a a sudden jump in wildfire incidents, because they did. It's just that this list jumped out at me.

List is from www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62232654

Unfortunately the rain and storms today will be very hit or miss and some areas may see no rain at all. After that, in the south in general there is very little prospect of rain. I'm attaching the 35 day rainfall outlook according to GEFS for London (chosen as it is such a water stressed area). It shows the mean of the ensembles. Rain, what rain?

So make the most of any rain today and let's hope the models are wrong. Because it's only July.

If Im honest, Im still feeling very nettled by posters who said that the red warning was scare mongering, or unhelpful.

Imagine if services hadn't been ready for the last two days? Imagine if the NHS hadn't mobilised anyone it could, hadn't changed the idea that the best place for waiting ambulance patients was the back of overheated ambulances. Imagine if national rail hadn't got its repair crews ready, hadn't slowed trains down, closed lines etc, if the power grid weren't ready with their crews, imagine if the water companies weren't prepared for the sudden pressure on their water system and just let things carry on as normal, etc, etc.

This is what a national emergency level 4 heat warning does. It mobilises all those systems. All those organisations being ready, to the best of their ability, which has been worn down by cuts and covid, helped mitigate much of the worst of the impact.

Well, quite.

It reminds me a bit of those calling the Millennium bug a pointless panic, when they weren’t the ones who’d had to produce the fixes that meant it hadn’t been a problem.

In a very small way, this thread led us to be more prepared here for the past two days - plants moved to shade, windows shaded, dog walked at 5, ice cubes at the ready. DH mocked (a bit!) at my ‘overreaction’ and at the duvets over the windows but rapidly decided that my Duvet Cave was better than his hell hole with the windows open.

@OhYouBadBadKitten I completely agree! It's bizarre the way people thought we were scare mongering but imagine if the fire services went into this blind

Sorry,off topic but@GuppytheCat the millennium bug was real? I had no idea it was a bug that was fixed in time!

Eloquently explained

I'm concerned about the lack of rain. We live rurally so farmers face a battering with crops, animals, never mind the wildfire risks. We have wild ponies oh the mountains and hills one big group use a smallish lake for water it's shrunk so much. Wild animals will be suffering