We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I'd never fully appreciated the cooling effect of the sea breeze. It's pretty comfortable and possibly a little chilly to be sitting out in my garden in the marina. Went into town and within less than a mile it was roasting!

That's very impressive @colouringindoors

That's a very impressive sun shade set up! I'm rigging towels up and shutting then in the windows so they hang down, but realised it would be more effective if they hung down the outside, so will do that tomorrow morning before I leave for work.

Same rag.
Would it be better if sheets outside windows were wet?

I'm not sure it would make that much difference tbh. Your main objective is to stop the sun hitting the window panes.

Thanks for the reassuring comments about my worries about the fans running all night, I know it’s irrational but the mind does throw these things up!

I did see a useful sounding tip on the BBC this evening - if you are up early tomorrow, get your windows/doors open to let the cooler air in for 15/20 mins then close everything up again, inc curtains, to trap the cooler air inside. This won’t work on Tuesday morning as temps are not going to drop as much during Monday night.

Good luck everyone, hope it’s not too unbearable for the next few days!

We have put reflective radiator insulation on the top of our living room windows, attached with Velcro dots, that window gets the full sun till late in the afternoon and we only have half shutters.

I love the ingenuity of PP - this thread is almost become Blue Peter

I have v thin blinds in the kitchen and office, so I'm going to peg some fitted sheets over them to double them up. Oh, and a couple of tea towels pegged over the kitchen door window. 🤞

Been up since 3.15am, managed to drop the living room (east facing) temp by 2deg and the conservatory and kitchen (west facing) by 3.5deg.

Roll on Wednesday.🥵

<hands around breakfast 🍦>

Gosh it’s so still here this morning. Actually very beautiful

I've put a wash on, it should be on the line by 7 and dry before 9, then I won't need to go out until the evening.

It's lovely although already warm here . My app is showing top temp of 34 so hopefully we're out of the red zone . DD is coming home at lunchtime and I was going to collect her but I might ask her to walk as that's not unbearable heat . Although now I've offered a lift I suspect I've no chance !!

The news just said last years top temp was 32. Surely that's not right or was it just a longer spell ? I remember really struggling last July !

I’ve had the doors and windows open since 5.45 and have got the temp down to 22 downstairs and 24 upstairs which is about as good as it’s going to get I think!

DP went to bed late, after me, and went around SHUTTING all the windows overnight! My fury is almost as red hot as the temperatures today.

The highest temperature last year was 32.2c on 21st July at Heathrow.

@stuntbubbles

Same.. shutting windows here as well, no matter how many times I've explained
He's just on auto pilot.

Also loving the ingenuity!
We've just got sheets outside windows. It seems to work yesterday but today is the major stressor so who knows!
I'm very grateful to the poster who suggested empty out ice tray into somewhat else to get more ice.

Also got wash on, curtains! Will pop out shortly...and then lock up although dd has insisted on school but they have allowed a half day.

@OhYouBadBadKitten it must have lasted longer last year then? I just remember the upstairs in my house being unbearable - although as a consequence I bought a few fans for this year so maybe that's what's making the difference . Now I'm thinking it investing in a small air con unit for next year !

We had rain last night at about 11.
It was amazing! The smell! But it lasted for all of two minutes

I should flag the small potential for another round of heat next weekend. This is really only being flagged by GFS at the moment, but the GEFS ensembles were the first to pick up on this round, so I can't dismiss the risk.

Good luck everyone. I'm teaching today and hoping lots of parents will have taken up the HTs invitation to keep kids home if you want to. Ds has chosen to stay home which I'm pleased about as he can look out for the poor dog in this heat. I'm on bus duty in the full sun from just after 3pm at which time my app is saying it will be 36 degrees in the shade so that'll be a good way to round off my (and the students) day!

Perimenopausal, bit overweight and frequently overheat and get really flustered even in normal weather so not looking forward to tropical greenhouse temperatures in the classroom. I've been reroomed from my top floor classroom to rooms all over the place which I don't think have fans and have those awful metal windows that you can open an inch at the bottom. All single story detached buildings designed to keep the heat in in winter. It's going to be interesting.

@RockandRollsuicide and@stuntbubbles another here with a partner who is unable to process the concept of cooler at night = windows open and reverse during day .Sigh.

I do think the long spells of heat are much harder to cope with (especially in urban areas with so much acting as heatsinks) than the odd day or two of record breaking highs .

Oh goodness @swallowedAfly you have every atom of my sympathy .

I've been told to imagine that you have a block of ice in your torso and to imagine it melting .But ,given your circumstances ,I doubt you would have enough brain power to do anything other than stand up.

I hear you, @swallowedAfly !
My classroom is an airless box, the windows open about 5cm because I'm on the top floor. Above 21°c outside and it's unbearable. This week?
I'm just hoping that the students stay at home. I sympathise with your bus duty, at least mine is the canteen queue which is out of the sun!

Yet at night usually or in winter he struggles to close curtains?

@swallowedAfly you also have my immense sympathy

I'm astonished at how many put blind faith into "school" to keep DC safe!
There is only so much anyone can do for goodness sake working with conditions as you describe. I hope you took an umbrella for bus duty.

Just looking at good morning Britain, class full of DC wearing hats inside??