We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I've had a look at the models this morning. No change. A note to say that some eastern areas that are in the red warning may still see temperatures around 30c on Wednesday.

Temperatures in the mid to high 20s on Wednesday. Probably dropping to low 20s on Thursday.

Thanks @OhYouBadBadKitten - I guess it will feel cool in comparison!

Wont help the buildings cool down quickly unfortunately.

@GloriaSmud Cheshire. It lasted about 5 mins and wasn't heavy, then another shower for about 5 mins half an hr later...sunny now.

It’s been raining in West Yorkshire this morning. Fat drops for about 5 mins and then nothing. The sun is starting to come out.

the windows that are open are currently bringing in a nice breeze, I suspect that won’t be the case tomorrow.

There has been a little mid level instability this morning, bringing the short lived rain. Similar is showing along parts of the SW coast, but I suspect much of that is evaporating before it hits the ground.

I'm north Lancs. Rain overnight and now 18 degrees and overcast. Feels muggy though.

Amber warning updated for the NE and Scotland to extend the area it covers.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-07-18

But hazy in London so far this morning and quite breezy. Already heating up though

Model update:
Tomorrow it looks likely that we will see temperatures break the UK record.
Tuesday it looks likely that that record will be broken and that some areas, perhaps even in Yorkshire, will see temperatures of 40c+.

When I started this thread, I did not think I would be writing that sentence this year.

oh my goodness

North east the sun is trying to come out, car recons it's 23 but feels colder. 🤞🏻 we get some of the heat

Tories saying children mustn’t miss school Monday and Tuesday

That we must be ‘resilient’.

They are so out of touch with the reality of normal life. A school without AC and so many bodies would be awful imo.

I’m glad schools aren’t closing but we have the option to go which I think is the best way

Thanks for this thread, been watching with interest. Our primary school have just cancelled a trip to the beach tomorrow, thank goodness! Can keep children off both days of collect at lunchtime. Boiling here at the moment, in Suffolk.

It's interesting to note that GFS looks to have over predicted temperatures by a degree or two over France yesterday. It will be watched carefully tomorrow to see if it does the same over the UK.

I hope so. I'm in South Brittany and the prediction was 42 degrees by 5pm today - with half an hour to go we're at 36 degrees so I'm really, really hoping it's peaked. Very uncomfortable. We've had low 30's at least for about three weeks now.

I'm staying inside. My apartment is really well insulated and it's a good 5c cooler than outside
Which is why my dad has "popped over to do some DIY" which seems to involve sitting in front of a fan and commenting how much cooler it is than his place

I have finished some cardboard or if the bin - Amazon packaging - cut it up to fit the South facing back kitchen door, a downstairs bathroom window and an upstairs bathroom window - just Sellotaped it in place - all the windows are closed as are all the curtains - the house is well insulated so it's been sitting at between 22 and 23C all day - I have a stand alone temperature monitor that I used to use in the greenhouse. So far - it's OK but the next 2 days are going to be more challenging. The dog was walked when it was 21C early this morning and won't go out again until it's down to about the same- I've given her a long cool bath this morning - she won't go to the toilet in the garden - I keep taking her out into the garden but she won't go - I know she's holding something in so I'll have to take her out later - probably midnight - no problem for me as I'm a night owl.

Wet a T-shirt and put it on.
Job done.

This is working brilliantly! I'll be making more....

How is that staying up @colouringindoors ?

Expandable pole resting on two long screws which are screwed into brick. Its thermal blackout fabric and pretty heavy so staying put do far!

Oh fab colouring .I've so enjoyed myself today and have gone full Heath Robinson devising methods to create and attach drapery to the outside of my windows .
Have also found it helpful (thank you Australian poster ) to not only close window and curtains but also to close door of room in question .